The Truth is: This Election will be 48% Bush and 50% Kerry

[Nimble_Idea]

how that plays out in the Electoral college will be up in the air.

But we all know that Kerry OR Shrub won't get less than 44%. This I am Most certain about.

so if you see a poll that says otherwise, just know that they are paid to affect the news.

Time magazine is VERY PRO WAR, it has been selling magazines with those nice bloody pictures. Just keep things in mind people.

[childslibrarian]

1. Thanks

for the sanity

[Nimble_Idea]

2. Yeah I don't believe any junk that rolls out completely wrong

Like Shrub winning California or something as stupid.

The LA Times and Time magazine, I don't listen to their polls anymore.
It's outright inaccurate. Not because they aren't more favorable to Kerry, but they are just way off that they have no more credibility in the right or the left. It's quite a shame they suck so bad. Oh well, if they want to hurt their own creds, that's up to them.

LA TIMES and TIME have no credibility.

[TruthIsAll]

3. Here is how Kerry wins with a 2% margin

			ELECTION SIMULATION MODEL			
			5000 Trial Elections 			
						
			Undecided allocation to Kerry			
	Allocation	50%	55%	60%	67%	75%
	Trial Wins	2502	3477	4049	4752	4951
						
	Pop. Vote %	49.92	50.31	50.61	51.25	51.88
	Win Prob. %	50.04	69.54	80.98	95.04	99.02
						
	ELECTORAL VOTES					
	Average 	271	282	290	309	326
	Median  	270	281	290	308	326
	Maximum     	359	373	371	391	396
	Minimum	      175	172	209	223	247
						
	States won	22	24	25	28	28
						
	NATIONAL %					
	Pop. Vote 	50.37	50.74	51.11	51.48	51.85
	Win Prob. 	58.52	66.72	74.20	80.69	86.07

[TruthIsAll]

4. Here's the detail....

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[fujiyama]

5. For some reason

I feel the same way. I think Kerry will win the popular vote. I just don't think that Bush would have gained that many votes over the past four years.

Plus Kerry will get so many votes in Ca, NY, Il, and othe states with major cities. He'll win those by a large margin.

I think Bush's speech strengthened his base. Maybe some leaners are back on board with him. I would guess that Bush will have almost the same support among republicans as Kerry has among democrats.

There are say 9-10% undecided. Many of these are independants and probably voted for Bush.