Stop knocking the bad Kerry polls

[dennis4868]

Why is it that when a poll come out that are not in Kerry's favor people here will say the poll are not reliable? It's like that almost everytime here.....I could understand if the organization that did the polling was called The Republican National Committee Poll....but it is not....it is Gallup....it is Time......if Kerry was leading in these polls I am sure I would not be hearing how these polls are not reliable.....

I am sure I will get attacked....sorry if I piss people off with this post....I simply think we need to be honest with ourselves here and understand that the lies that are used against Kerry by Bush and his thugs are catching up to Kerry....these lies never get debunked by the media.....it makes me sick!

[marlakay]

1. I agree look at the CNN mishap...should we use the other one??

That tells you right there they had one with them tied, so don't listen. Kerry is fighting back and it WILL work.

[dennis4868]

4. I pray to G-d!

It driveds me crazy to think that there are so many people out there that will vote for Bush.....how can that be?

[DaveinMD]

5. CNN

gets knocked because its been a major outlier the entire cycle and they got the last race wrong too. Zogby was dead on last time and they show the race much tighter. Even Judy Woodruff didn't believe this poll.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

28. Two things: Did Judy really show doubt in this poll?

Zogby predicted the 1996 Election and the 2000 Election.

Also, they showed the Rethugs getting momentum in the final weeks of the 2002 election which too prooved to be correct.

[Democat]

2. Take a look at this post for a full mathematical explanation

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x740190#740288

[sangh0]

3. Your generalization is inaccurate

I remember numerous polls that had Kerry in SINGLE DIGITS, and no one questioned their validity.

Of course, those polls weren't done by a former employee of Fox News. Not that that makes any difference, right?

[seabeyond]

6. cause it is the same poll, and because it jumps too much

and because it is out of sync with other polls

should we just blatanly accept whatever is put in our face. cause it is always back to a close race after one of these outrages polls. because polling report has 5, 6, 7 polls and none of them show this number

why should i take it

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

7. You need to at least read the posts in your own threads which responded

to you on this issue. The Time/CNN poll was performed by a Republican operative. You need to read the front page wherein Judy Woodruff got caught admitting on air that there are problems with that poll and you need to click on the Zogby link that was in your prior thread on this subject.

It is no wonder people are suspect of your posts when you start a thread on this subject...don't bother to read the data people provide you then start another thread...along with all the prior negative posts you've made about Kerry. I'm not accusing you of anything I am simply saying that you should be able to understand why people get suspect after a while.

[DaveinMD]

8. conducted

by an operative? Who conducted the poll. I'm really curious about that.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

11. Check this thread out

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x738912

[hlthe2b]

17. If there is anything intentionally malicious going on....

it's going to show up in future polls. THis is an outliar and nothing more at this point. The press may make their usual jackass of themselves, but in a few days, the other polls will make things clear. Annoying? yes Problemmatic due to perceptions? yes But, we aren't likely to be able to prove or even be able to suggest the poll is intentionally inaccurate, (if it is), so we'll have to hang in there...

[dennis4868]

15. what are you talking about?

I never had a Zogby poll link in my posts....huh?

And who is suspect of my posts? I am just saying that we have to face reality and people here who are worried about the polls should not be questioned.....AND WHAT OTHER NEGATIVE PRIOR KERRY POSTS ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?

WHY IN THE HELL WOULD I BE NEGATIVE ABOUT A GUY WHO I LOVE AND VOLUNTEER MY FUCKING TIME FOR......please stop it now......dont attack people who are concerned right now....we have a right.....

[sangh0]

18. What are YOU talking about

You don't even explain what you're talking about, and then you act offended when someone tries to fill in the blanks.

[dennis4868]

27. what did you mean by this?

".....along with all the prior negative posts you've made about Kerry."

I have never posted a negative Kerry post.....I have been a Kerry supported since Day 1.....but if I ever begin to worry about the polls or question Kerry's strategy that is not negative.....

[sangh0]

35. I didn't ask for a Straw Man

I said nothing about prior posts of yours. I'm not NSMA

I said if you don't want to people to read things into your threads, then you should do a better job of explaining what you mean. Your original post in incomprehensible unless your referring to the GOP/CNN/Zogby poll, but you say you're not talking about that.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

24. In no way was I intending a personal attack. Both issues were addressed

in this thread of yours...the Zogby results and the polling company:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=739628

[dennis4868]

31. Cool.....

thanks :-)

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

37. peace...and hang in there

we all respond differently to pressure..I'm not suggesting anyone take a Pollyanna attitude but this board is media and this board is a tool...I'd rather use it to shore up the troops than demoralize them...it doesn't mean we only need rah rah posts...just that we make sure that when critical we give the campaign (who does stop here) something they can work with. ;-)

[dennis4868]

41. we give the campaign (who does stop here)

like Ms. Edwards!

Take care.....

[Julien Sorel]

9. Wrong.

these lies never get debunked by the media

Alexandra Polier was a lie debunked by the media. The media debunked the Swift Hoaxers, they just took their sweet time about it.

[dennis4868]

19. Okay......

good point....but what about the $87 billion dollar vote on Iraq, how Kerry has voted against every weapon for the military, etc....there ids plenty the media does not touch.....they are suppose to be truthseekers!

[Julien Sorel]

30. I read about a dozen articles debunking that, maybe more.

Chris Matthews drug Zell Miller over the coals over that issue; so did the talking heads at CNN.

[bushwakker]

10. Kerry is down 8-10 points - deal with it

[DaveinMD]

12. why does Zogby

only show a two point race then? I want answers to that question.

[hlthe2b]

21. You simply can't draw that conclusion from a single poll....

Could it be true? yes... But we won't know until we see the other polls come in. So, why be so confrontational with your colleagues?

[dennis4868]

29. did i sound....

confrontational in my original post? I got attacked and defended myself like I should (and Kerry should also for that matter)....

sorry if I have offended.....meant no harm....just wanted a friendly discussion.....my bad!

[hlthe2b]

34. Dennis, my comment was directed at Bushwakker

whose subject line was pretty harsh-- not to you. I think it is reasonable to point out (as you have) that just because a poll doesn't go our way does not mean the pollsters are biased, inaccurate, and should be ignored. On the otherhand, I just want to point out that in the absence of multiple consistent polls, this is but an outlier and may ultimately be meaningless. Nonetheless, outlier polls should be examined for why they might be (or may not be) simply chance blips on the screen-- but that they don't have to represent "nefarious" intent.

[dennis4868]

36. okay....

thanks!

[bushwakker]

39. I am not saying this lead is insurmountable - but it's there

denying they got a bump does no good. The GOP puts on a good show and people generally respond to it. Bush's speech was pretty good and the theatrics were great - that's the way it is. However I was just reading Kos or MYDD and read that Bush led Gore 52-38 in late October of 2000 in the CNN/Gallup tracking. This encourages me. I'd say Bush has a measurable lead that can disappear overnight - but he has a lead and their convention was a plus for him while ours wasn't a plus for Kerry.

[hlthe2b]

40. Sure.. and he undoubtedly did get a bump.. the question is how large...

I just withold any conclusions on the validity of this Time poll since the only other poll Zogby is dramatically different and the apparent TIME increase is unexpectedly high. It could be real, rather than a chance outlier, but I suspect not. I suspect his bump is more likely a few points. We'll see as the other polls come in.

[dennis4868]

25. i agree....

we have to deal with it....but lets be realistic about it also....

[hlthe2b]

13. Good point... but it is true that outlier polls need to be examined.....

Even with the best methodology, there are occasions when your sampling scheme fails (and you end up with a biased sample), or an extraordinary "refusal" rate signifies a problem with the sample, or your questions are confusing/open to misinterpretation, you have an analysis error-- any number of factors. I don't care who is doing the survey, but given a MOE of 3, the expectation is that 97% of repeated surveys will be "accurate," and as many as 3% will be inaccurate due purely to chance.

So, while the harsh rhetoric discounting one or another pollster may be unneeded, it is important to take a look at the reasons behind the outliars.

[depakid]

14. I like to think I'm an equal opportunity poll basher

since I think all of them essentially are worthless for anything other than collectively showing trends over time.

[Kierkegaard]

16. You have an excellent point

I've seen too many posts here that accept polls so long as they support our desire to have Kerry elected as the next president. If we measure our success by those standards, we must also accept them when they aren't in our favor. We all want the same thing here, but let's use some perspective and common sense before we come off sounding like a bunch of freepers.

People, the election is 2 months away. Roll up your sleeves and make an effort to get the results you want, don't just sit around and wait for the polls to tell you 'mission accomplished,' because it will not happen by itself.

[dennis4868]

20. AGREE.....

i am making that effort by taking leave from my job to volunteer for Kerry at the end of the month....and when I say that Kerry is in trouble but has time and that the polls dont look good I get attacked for being a freeper....this is crazy!

[micasaessucasa]

22. First timer posting

People,
I couldn't agree more. I am not yet a citizen and can't vote. But all of you out there who CAN vote, please be out there on Nov 2nd and Vote for Kerry. The only poll that really matters is the one on Nov 2nd. We need everyone of you out there voting.

[TexasBushwhacker]

33. Big Texas Welcome Mica!

Welcome to DU :yourock:

BTW, just because you can't vote doesn't mean you can't help the Kerry campaign in other ways. Volunteer if you can!

[newyawker99]

42. Hi micasaessucasa!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[DaveinMD]

23. we are definitely behind

for now and that is to be expected after their convention. However, I seriously doubt we are behind by as much as that poll says. And it doesn't fit with all the other polls. You should always look at all the polls. I usually drop the best and the worst to see where we really are.

[sangh0]

38. Definitely behind? Since you're so sure. I"m sure you can back that up

with some facts.

Care to share the facts with us so we can be as certain as you are?

Or should we just believe whatever you say?

[DaveinMD]

43. the zogby poll

shows us slightly behind. I think that is where the race is. That's okay. We'll be tied after the slight bounce dissipates. Kerry is taking a tougher line. This is just what happened in the Weld race. He's going on the attack and shrub won't know what hit him.

[sangh0]

44. Within the MOE

because otherwise, the word "definitely" is the result of your not knowing what you're talking about.

[TexasBushwhacker]

26. The bottom line is POLLS MEAN NOTHING

They don't mean anything for us, and they don't mean anyting for Bush either. No one should be resting easy. I have no doubt that Bush's negative campaigning is effective. That's why he does it, but rather than getting sick, I think it's better to get ANGRY and get EVEN. The way to do that is to spend every spare moment and spare dollar working for Kerry over the next 9 weeks - ALL OF US. It's time to raise hell, kick butt and take names. It may mean alienating some friends and family members, but we know that Bush has gotten his lies out there and people are believing them. It's up to us to spread the truth.

Just yesterday I chatted online with a guy who said he's "conservative" but admitted that he "didn't know who to believe". At least he was open minded enough to question both sides. There are thousands of people like him and we must spread the word. We can't be quiet. We can't be polite. We've got to make people listen and BELIEVE or we will ALL suffer the consequences.

[seabeyond]

32. i know the exact same thing just happened like a month ago.

not good with time,. but i know we got numbers from this particular poll that had bush absurdly up and other polls did not. and we watched cnn do just this,......go on and on and on about the poll. and even got picked up by msnbc. and it wasnt a couple days before other polls came out and this poll was sooo wrong

i just really dont trust this particular poll. i want other polls before i decide we are 11 points behind. now...

it doesnt really matter, there is a good two months, just had bushie boy lovefest campaign, and man, democrats are pumped and gonna be out there working. i have all the confidence.

but i simply dont trust this particular poll. give me another that tells me there is an 11 point lead, and fine

[iwantmycountryback]

45. Rasmussen poll has Bush up by 4 points

Really not that bad.

[Walt Starr]

46. I'll knock any anomolous poll

Show me the data points that agree with the Time Poll. A single poll does not a trend make!

There will always be statistical anomalies. If we see additional polls with similar data points, we have a trend. All of the trends to date indicate a 2 point bounce.

The good thing is the pundits have spun this single poll as a trend! That means when the next poll comes out in a few days and it has a 1 point difference, we can scream about a double digit drop nearly over night!

[dennis4868]

47. well i saw stan greenberg.....

who is a long time Democrat pollster (worked for Clinton for 8 years) said that the tide is turning to Bush....I trust this man.....

[Walt Starr]

52. The fucking RNC just ended for criminies sake!

OF FUCKING COURSE THE TIDE IS TURNING TO BUSH!

Some fucking people act like they've never seen a presidential campaiagn before!

FUCK!

[dennis4868]

53. Walt.....

Stan Greenberg said this on Sunday morning....before the convention began.

[Walt Starr]

54. I don't buy that

Greenberg is wrong, IMO. I won't trust anything he has to say for the rest of this campaign.

[Ell09]

48. Two Extremes on this board

Those, like you, who actually believe Kerry is down by 11 points, and the other group which seems to believe that Kerry is slightly ahead. I agree that it's ridiculous to knock polls just because they show Bush in the lead. That said, how much air time was given to the LA Times poll which showed Kerry up by 7 points about a month ago? NONE. The cable news outlets have been all over this poll since it came out. Secondly, all the networks and the cable news outlets were very quick to report all the polls that showed Bush with a small lead prior to the convention. When Kerry was ahead in these same polls by similar margins, the race was described as "tied".


The Gallup polls has been unusually favorable toward Bush throughout the summer. Does that make it inaccurate? Not necessarily, but it has consistently been more positive for Bush than other polls. I don't discount the Time poll, but I am not worried about it, just like I didn't throw a party when the LA Times had Kerry up 7.

Why? NOBODY is going to win this election by more than 4 points. It's simply ridiculous to believe that Bush is really up by 11 points, but he may be up by 6 or 7 with his convention bounce. In two weeks, the race will be within 4 points either way.

[sangh0]

49. Read this

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=738912

[Walt Starr]

50. Oh I believe Kerry is down right now

Two to four points.

And that could be turned around in a matter of a week or less.

[dennis4868]

51. I dont know what to make of the Time poll.....

but I heard Stan Greenberg who is a long time Deocratic pollster and worked for Clinton for almost 10 years said this morning on my local radio station that the tide has indeed turned to Bush....he is basing this on his polling that he does for a living for Dems (partners with Carville).