The most recent Electoral VOte Breakdown still has Kerryy in the lead

[Nicholas_J]

Thursday, September 02, 2004
Electoral College Update 25
Kerry 291, Bush 238 electoral votes. The latest projection, based on averages of all recent state-by-state polls, shows two changes: Arkansas (6 EVs) has returned to the Bush column, and Colorado (9 EVs) has moved from a Bush lead to a tie.

The alternate calculation of swing states yields the same result. Among the 19 swing states in 2000, Florida and New Hampshire are on track to change parties, moving from Bush to Kerry; and Colorado, a Bush state in 2000, is too close to call


http://www.robertsilvey.com/notes/2004_electoral_college_updates/index.html

[sangh0]

1. THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!

HE SHOULD HAVE WON BY NOW!!!


:-)

[Nicholas_J]

2. Thats absurd.

Check close elections over the last 40 years and you will find in most cases, except Clinton in 1996, and Reagans second term, the cnadidate who was ahead varied throught the campaign clear until the last week before the election. Carter was beating Reagan until the last week of 1980. Gore was beating Bush until the day of the election. In every election, the candidate who just had his convention gets ahead of the guy who already had his convention, or hadnt had it yet. SHould have been winning by is the exception in American Presidential Elections, not the rule.

[sangh0]

3. My apologies

I was satirizing the Gloom and Doomers. I should have been clearer

[Nicholas_J]

4. I should have

cut you some slack...

[roseBudd]

5. How do pollsters account for..

different voting rates in different demographics.

Do they try to have a low number of 18-24 year olds, a whole bunch of seniors...

Could the polls be way off because of unprecedented registration and turnout?

rosebud still plugging along daily canvassing in Ohio