Road to 270: Texas

[ccharles000]

NOT A STATE TO MESS WITH, Texas has been the Republican answer to California – a huge state with many electoral votes that starts out as the foundation of the red march to 270. Despite gigantic grassroots effort in Texas on behalf of Obama since early 2007, McCain is only likely to lose Texas in a massive wave. Even as the numbers turn heavily in Obama's favor, Texas is still safe McCain territory. Democrats have ambitious plans to return Texas to its near century-long Democratic tradition, but they probably won't begin to be realized for several cycles.

What McCain Has Going For Him

Like Obama’s advantages in California, John McCain’s Texas advantages comprise a lengthy list. To start, the state ranks 2d most conservative on the Likert scale, and the once century-long Democratic bastion split 44-32 in R-to-D partisan identification in 2004. It’s a low education state, high percentage of white evangelicals, and McCain’s fundraising numbers are nearly as robust here as in California. A higher proportion of male voters also aids the Republican. Within the state, Republicans have benefited from Tom DeLay's redistricting after the 2000 census, even as the Supreme Court overturned the drawn borders of TX-23, ending in Ciro Rodriguez' special election upset win over incumbent Henry Bonilla on December 12, 2006.

What Obama Has Going For Him

Texas has lots of young voters (4th highest percentage), and not many elderly voters (5th lowest percentage), both of which favor Obama. As Texas is a majority-minority state, Obama has some structural help, though Hispanic voters obviously don’t break in the same high percentages that African-American voters do. Texas Hispanic voters are the 3d highest percentage in America. Texas is another state benefiting from the late prima-caucus, as the once awful Democratic Texas voter file has had lots of effort put into its refinement.

What To Watch For

There’s more drama in the Noriega-Cornyn Senate race, though not by much at this point, with Cornyn still polling clearly ahead. Big Bad John looks like he’ll be re-elected. Big Bad John. (What to watch for? That is a must-watch, no matter your political persuasion.) Noriega is a netroots favorite, and he's a credible candidate in the Lone Star State. If you're looking for an election-night shocker, this one might be a race to keep an eye on.


http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/road-to-270-texas.html

[MarthaMyDear]

1. Thanks for posting...gives me hope! Central TX usually...

...goes Blue, with the rest of state in the Red. Hope things are better this election year! :~)

[PBS Poll-435]

3. Ironically, the GE map is going to look a lot like the map from the Texas Primary.

For Sure:

Dallas County
Bexar County
Travis County
Harris County
El Paso County
Most counties that border Mexico.

Maybe:

Collin County
Denton County
Tarrant County
Bell County
Jefferson County

[rainbow4321]

9. Bill Clinton to campaign with Rick Noriega in Dallas

http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2008/10/bill-clinton-to-campaign-with.html

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Rick Noriega is getting some high and low Clinton help. Last week, Hillary Clinton appeared with him at a fundraiser in the Valley. Next week, it's in Dallas with Bill Clinton.
The former president and Noriega will rally together Tuesday evening at Thomas Jefferson High School on Walnut Hill Lane. Doors open at 5:30 pm and the rally begins at 6:30 pm.
Noriega, who is likely to be outspent 7-to-1 by incumbent John Cornyn, needs a strong boost to make the race competitive.
The two contenders will duke it out in their second debate on Thursday night, being aired and hosted by PBS station KERA-TV in Dallas.

[PBS Poll-435]

10. That is great news. It really is remarkably close considering how much dough

Big John is throwing around.

Thanks for helping to close the gap, Bill!

(And thanks to YOU for posting this. I will be watching that debate, you betcha!)

[Katidid]

6. Hey Marthanna, Welcome to the DU

I live in rural North East Tx - and I am surprised at how many Obama supporters there are here, however they are very discrete and hide their political opinions from the 'townspeople'. I want to see Tx blue again, however I'll settle for purple this upcoming election.

Again Welcome to the DU.:hi:

[billyoc]

2. Cornyn is only up by 7. Texas is barely pink.

[PBS Poll-435]

4. And Noriega has started running ads!

[ferrferr]

5. I'm in the DFW area

and of course I'm voting Obama! I've seen more Obama stickers than McCain too..... thank gods.

[fishwax]

7. welcome to DU, ferrferr!

:toast:

[rainbow4321]

8. I drove thru an area that USED to be covered in Bush signs in 2004

For locals, I took the Tollway to Mockingbird and headed west..had a work-related all day conference to attend. The last election year that I drove thru there (with my Kerry/Edwards bumper stickers) I remember thinking if I made it thru that stretch of road in one piece it would be a miracle. Most all of the homes along that part of Mockingbird had Bush/Cheney signs, those that didn't had local repuke signs. For the non-locals, it is close to SMU, a well off part of Dallas, kinda near where chimpass plans on moving to after he gets his ass out of the WH.
Today as I drove down the same street....Obama/Biden signs OUTNUMBERED McCain signs ***5 to 1****. 5 to 1.
After the conference I had some extra time so I drove a major east-west road in my own town in Plano ( county went 70-30 repuke in the past). A road where the repukes who have houses along the way have an election year history of having those huge fence signs facing the high traffic area of the east-west road. Today: 2 huge Obama/Biden fence signs and only a single repuke fence sign..and that ONE repuke sign was not even for McCain, it was for Sam Johnson.


I'm not even going to suggest TX will go full blown blue, but the non-locals here have to understand how this kind of stuff turns our TX universe upside down/inside out for us TX Dems. We may actually get to hear "to close to call" for a nanosecond on election night!

[CarbonDate]

11. Just making McCain defend Texas would be huge.

I disagree with the concept of Texas being on the road to 270, though. It's part of the road to 400. Sort of a, "gee wouldn't that be nice", but not something we really need.

[Jackpine Radical]

12. Why the hell did we ever let them into the Union in the first place? (nt)