Ya know, 11points up is going to backfire BIG TIME

[Walt Starr]

We all know this single poll is anomolous. It's a spike in a data point. It is unsustainable.

End of the day, when this gets back to normal, we will be able to SPIN SPIN SPIN!!!!

George W. Bush came off a 15 point bounce from the convention and BLEW THE ENTIRE THING IN A MATTER OF XX DAYS!!!!

This will work to our advantage in the long term.

[Catch22Dem]

1. I likes the way you thinks

So much doom and gloom (and armchair QBing) around here for me these days.

[unblock]

2. i'd actually LOVE to see bush lead by 5 going into the debates

let's make sure that expectations are for BUSH to win the debates.

if bush fails to meet expectations in the debates, he's really toast.

so let's make sure everybody thinks bush is really going to do well in the debates.

(snicker)

DAMN! it only works if you can do it with a straight face!

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

3. Good point

:kick:

[Clark4Prez]

4. He's the master of misunderestimation

Bush does quite horribly when he's on top. (Umm, don't think about that too long or you might end up with a mental picture you can't forget)

[merh]

24. AAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

You should have put the warning up front :puke:

How do I bleach my brain?? :puke:

[burythehatchet]

5. You are so right.

EVERY manipulation now is going to backfire. Remember, when these regimes collapse, it happens quickly.

[canuckybee]

6. I could not agree more

I was about to engage in an argument about the validity of the poll on a conservative board, when I realized how much sweeter the fall would be if they have no warning. Let them revel for a day or two, I can wait for the new polls.

[ItsMyParty]

7. The problem, Walt, is that what you say would very likely normally

happen. But the danger here (and I hope the Kerry camp can see the danger) is the media hyping this day after day to beat it into the people's heads that "it's all over, Bush has won". Then you will see nothing but worsening numbers. And I'm afraid that is exactly their mission---you know, just like the mission of showing the swifboat ads over and over for tens of millions of dollars of free ad space in order to "talk" about the issue. I honestly don't think we have a chance against these whores.

[NMDemDist2]

10. just because there is some BS poll out there the folks who really

can't stand Bush, and i mean CAN'T STAND him won't change, and they won't be quiet

no chance you what you're saying being a reality

[Walt Starr]

19. One poll is not enough for that

You need poll after poll for several days to make that happen.

It simply won't go down like that.

[sangh0]

20. It's enough for Doom and Gloom

It doesn't take much

[Walt Starr]

21. Well, Kerry sneezes and it's cause for doom and gloom here.

I'm convinced nobody paid attention to all of the discussions about the financing on this campaign. We knew months ago, Kerry could not afford to spend a dime during August. Hell, back a couple of months ago I was convinced it would doom his campaign to accept the nomination!

Kery fought back all month long. Nobody covered it. That was the problem. Bush gets free PR and Kerry is ignored. The only way for Kerry to get his message out is to spend money.

What I'm wondering about is where are all those 527's attacking Bush? Moveon is a PAC, so the attack ads from Moveon are basically done very soon. The other 527's need to ratchet up the attacks on Bush, and they can go over the top, too.

Hell, they could go negative to the point of laying out LIHOP, Kerry could disavow, and it would STILL FUCK UP BUSH, but never touch Kerry.

[charlie105]

27. Walt, your 'Unfit For Command' link does not work. It's

got a couple of extra slashes after the http:

[Walt Starr]

28. OOPS!!!

Thanks, all fixed now.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

8. As Winston Churchill said:

"I like a man who grins when he fights"

[WI_DEM]

9. Good point

in a week it will be gone and TIME will have a new poll showing things tight and that is when Dems should create the illusion that Bush has blown a big lead.

[yellerpup]

11. Good spin

The bounce is unsustainable.

[burythehatchet]

13. THERE IS NO BOUNCE

[BillZBubb]

22. No bounce?

On what basis do you make that claim? Most people seem to agree the 11 point "bounce" is bullshit. But most people also expect Bush* to get a few points bounce.

Do you have some post convention data that backs up your claim?

[rocktivity]

30. There is no double-digit bounce, at least

CNN accidentally debunked it.

Now, check this out from www.pollingreport.com:


Hands up who thinks that Time poll DOESN'T look strange!

:hi:
rocknation

[burythehatchet]

36. Polls are nothing but a reality show for media

production. All they want to do is write a script that will sell some fucking deoderant. These polls are all subjective. Just like newspapers. Remember when you were a kid and you thought that newspapers contained news? Well at some point you figured out that its not really just news, its somebody's agenda.

When will people realize that these polls are nothing but props in the show. This is Kabuki theatre - watch the trapeze act while the clowns run away with the country.

So the "bounce" is 11 points. Well, Time said it, CNN repeated it, Faux codified it, case closed. Once you concede that some polls may be rigged, I would submit to you that every poll is then suspect. They don't mean shit.

But you should not ignore it. Why? Because it was produced for a reason. Your assignment, should you decide to accept it, is to figure out what that reason is.

Good luck.

[quaoar]

12. I agree

I made the same point in a number of other threads but they all seem to fly off the first page after 5 minutes.

[lancdem]

14. Thanks, Walt!

We can say Bush is the news Michael Dukakis! :evilgrin:

[are_we_united_yet]

15. All I can say is

11 points = Bullshit

[Mike L]

16. Good point. Time is rather liberal too. Could this be a (good) plot?

Light a fire under the Kerry Campaign and set Bush up for a fall in one stroke?

[markses]

17. In what alternate universe is Time liberal?

Henry Luce himself would be turning in his grave to hear such nonsense. Puh-leez.

[SayitAintSo]

18. "He dropped like a hot rock ...."

I agree with you .. if only we WILL capitalize on it well... which I'm not so sure about any more, unfortunately

[Virginian]

23. The same way he turned the economic suplus to deficit

[Walt Starr]

25. GOOD MEME!

Bush's bounce went away almost as fast as the budget surplus after he took office!

[ParanoidPat]

26. Bush* is so far ahead that they can relax, they might as well stay home...

......however we're so far behind that it will motivate our base to GOTV! :evilgrin:

I propose a 'Catchup for Kerry' GOTV effort from now through the election. :)

[David Zephyr]

29. Actually, Walt Is On to Something. We Should Talk Up the 11 Points.

First, it isn't there.

Second, when new polls come out, it will only make Bush look worse.

[Walt Starr]

33. BINGO!

The message everybody outside the Kerry campaign must stick to when discussing ANYTHING about the campaign is to set the expectations for Bush high!

The Busheviks wanted to give their boy the appearance of godhood. I say, agree with the fucks! NOBODY CAN LIVE UP TO BEING A GOD!

[JetCityLiberal]

31. Agree Walt Starr

If the 11 points is even real in the first place. We have had the advantage all along, the truth. Thanks to people like you.

JetCityLiberal

[Iceburg]

32. Little know fact ... in 1948 of 50 polls predicted a Dewey victory

snip/
As the election approached, both Dewey and Truman embarked upon train tours. The Dewey train had 90 reporters, but only half that number accompanied Truman, on what they expected would be a political deathwatch. They were surprised when large, enthusiastic throngs greeted Truman at every stop. Nevertheless, the press corps continued to believe that the polls didn't lie. When Newsweek surveyed 50 top political correspondents in October, all 50 predicted Truman would lose.
/snip

more ...
http://times.discovery.com/convergence/campaignessentials/politicsmedia/timeline/timeline_05.html


enthusiastic throngs greet Kerry and Edwards along every mile of the campaign trail

"Cheney" the media and its polls, I'll take the personal observations as my baromter.

[Catherine Vincent]

34. Let the repukes enjoy this little minor bounce.

It won't last. At least until Bin Laden is found.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

35. The bounce isn't 11 points.

It's 17. That's the difference between the previous Time poll (Kery +7) and this one (Bush +10).

We'll see what the other polls turn over in the next week. I have these reactions:

1) People who call this no bounce or a minor bounce are smoking crack. It's a major bounce.

2) The higher the bounce, the more unsustainable it is. I would say the halflife of a convention bounce is 10 days. So, in 10 days I expect Bush to have lost 8 points. In 20 days, I expect him to have lost 12 points, which puts the gap back within the Margin of Error and makes it a dead heat race.

3) It's a completely different campaign, now. Several things are working in Kerry's favor. The regression to the mean will make him look like he is gaining momentum. The media wants it close, so now they will accentuate stories that show him "catching up." And presented with the real possibility of a second Bush term, GOPers will have a harder time scaring people into voting (and liberals will have an easier time scaring people into voting).

I maintain what I have been saying all along. 50/50 on Election Day, whoever's madder wins. And I'm pretty mad.