"How High the Bounce?
It must be stressed that at this point: we don't know. Measurements of a candidate's bounce should be based on polls taken before and after a convention. So far we have no such data--in fact, tonight will be the first night where polling can be conducted that is truly after the completion of the GOP convention. Therefore, we won't have real bounce data for several days."
My favorite line: "(I continue to be amazed at how easily many Democrats are panicked by the release of an unfavorable poll; there's been a lot of talk about whether John Kerry is tough enough--I'm more worried about whether regular old Democrats are tough enough. Sheesh.)"
He also points out that a bounce is measured from a previous level of support; so if the Time poll is accurate, Bush's bounce is 5 points (based on his previous support of 46). And he says we have to wait a few days to see how this all shakes out.
Interesting read:
http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/