I just don't buy that Time poll

[JPJones]

Look at the breakdown of voters from their previous polls.
http://www.srbi.com/time_poll.html
http://www.srbi.com/combined-data-2004-condensed.pdf

F12. Regardless of how you feel today, did you vote for Bush or Gore four ago?
REGISTERED
VOTERS Gore Bush
Aug24-26 41% 53%
Aug3-5 44% 50%
Jul20-22 44% 51%

And their stated methodology -
In order to ensure that everyone in the household has an equal chance at being interviewed, we ask to speak with the youngest male, 18 years of age or older. If no male is available we ask to speak with the oldest female, 18 years of age or older. Asking this question helps to increase the level of chance and make sure that we speak with a diverse population. (?)

Once data collection is complete, we check to make sure it is representative of the whole United States population. Often data is adjusted so that it accurately reflects the whole population. Final figures are matched against U.S. Census Bureau breakdowns on age, sex, race, education, and region of the country. Data is also adjusted to account for the fact that people who share a phone with others are less likely to be contacted than people who live alone and have their
own phones, and that households with more than one telephone number have more chances to be called than households with only one phone number.

[still_one]

1. where did you get the breakdown from previous polls?

[rockymountaindem]

2. Woah

I'm not statistician, but that seems whack.

I guess they reason they're always so off is because the number of former Gore/Bush voters is not reflective of reality. Gore won, remember guys?

[DaveinMD]

3. it should be

weighted by party and past voting behavior. Doesn't seem to be that way.

[still_one]

4. at time.com I did not see that breakdown

where did you see it?

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

24. Click on the link to the pdf file

It's toward the end of the document

[UdoKier]

5. THAT is very interesting indeed.

If the skew is similar on today's poll, that points to a dead heat still.

[The Shadow]

7. Bingo!!

Now we're catching on!

[rockymountaindem]

6. Kick

Hey everybody, now we know why CNN/time polls suck! They're totally inaccurate!

[sangh0]

8. And then there's always this

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=738912

[JPJones]

9. More

F14. Do you consider yourself an evangelical (ee-van-gel-ical) or born-again Christian?

Reg. voters Yes No
Aug 24-26 44% 51%
Aug 3-5 41% 55%
Jul 20-22 40% 56%

[rockymountaindem]

14. Damn, I'm bookmarking this.

I'm the nucleus of sanity in an atom of panicky fellow Democrats in my life. They'll need this information tomorrow when they're freaking out.

[nodictators]

38. Obviously 44% of the voters aren't evangelical or born-again

It seems that Time got their controversial result by polling pro-Repub voters.

Then, adding insult to injury, they purged nearly one-quarter of the poll respondents by claiming they were unlikely to vote.

[ruggerson]

10. Holy Shit

This poll is totally skewed.

[A_Possum]

11. and this bit about asking to speak with the youngest male first?

males are heavily Bush, what the heck is this?? shouldn't you randomly change who you ask to speak with first, if you are going to filter it?

[JPJones]

13. Exactly - young turks and old bats

Perfect formula for tough guy B* lovers and anti-abortion religious broads.

[A_Possum]

16. *curtsy*

pardon me, but I take exception to the "old bat" O8)

[ruggerson]

12. The stats on Gore vs. Bush

Should be emailed to everyone at CNN, FOX and MSNBC.

And the Kerry campaign should be publicly debunking this.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

26. Nah just kick this post up and let other DUers read it

Let the Repugs get over confident.

[GOPAgainstGW]

15. Poll is Totally K. Rove Driven Fraudulent-Time for a Lawsuit & Discovery!

[rockymountaindem]

17. Kick

This blows my mind. How could they be so transparently flawed?

[OilemFirchen]

18. "Often data is adjusted"

They're statisticians and they don't know that data is plural?

Heaven help us. Seriously.

[ruggerson]

19. Are there any statisticians here?

Who can check out the above links and see if we're missing anything?

It would seem to me self evident that if their polling sample is skewed by 6-8% towards people who say they voted for Bush over Gore last time, then their results are worthless, because we know statistically what the actual results of that race were.

[JPJones]

21. It's outside the poll's margin of error

So, you'd expect it to occur in less than 5% of polls. Even still, all three polls are skewed to Bush voters.

Now pollsters could say that voters are ashamed to admit they voted for losers, and I could say that my armpits don't smell because your nose is too sensitive.

[DemMother]

23. Reminds me of that goofy USA Survey poll on California that showed

Kerry with only a three point lead.

[regnaD kciN]

31. Not really...

The "adjustment" to the statistics means that they correct for the sample size. For example, if the answer to the abovementioned question 12 is Bush 50%, Gore 44%, they will figure that the results are skewed about 3% toward the conservative side, and adjust the results accordingly.

I don't get where the "we have debunked this poll" claims are coming from. Do the results of question 12 show a preponderance of Republicans responding? Sure, but so do all previous polls by the same organization, and those polls, once their results were adjusted accordingly, showed Kerry slightly ahead or even. This time, Bush is way ahead. However you cut it, somehow there was a sizeable swing to Bush between last week and this week, and nothing in the questions that are being raised here seems sufficient to dismiss the current results, however much we may dislike them.

[JPJones]

37. But they ask for youngest males and oldest females n/t

[ruggerson]

39. kick

[ruggerson]

20. kick

[EST]

22. Shows what happens when even an informed person

just reads the numbers off the top, and ass-umes all else is equal, because they said so. I know my girlfriend is a virgin because she told me she was... and virgins don't lie.

[GaryL]

25. Amazing.

This is the first poll I've seen that actually believes * beat Gore 53% to 41%. Normally they have enough sense not to publish the sampling rate when it's this bad.

[NEDem]

27. * had a 17 point lead over Gore at this time in 2000

A bump was expected, but I don't think he got much of one, 11 points is outrageous, I'd say more like 5 or 6 at most. But one thing I keep thinking is that a national poll really doesn't mean shit, the real test is when the individual state numbers start coming out. I still see this as winnable. The debates are going to be very important.

[OilemFirchen]

29. For the record

this worthless poll actually shows a 9 point jump for the chimp. Their last "poll", circa August 24-26 had it 46/44 for *.

Given, then, that their methodolgy is useless, their assumptions stupid, and their professionalism impeached, the best they could do for the usurper is a measly 9-point convention bounce.

Pitiful, no matter how you look at it.

[EndElectoral]

28. The only one who voted for Gore and is voting for Bush is Zell Miller

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

35. And Dori Monson

Who's a pussy whipped afternoon radio talk show host on KIRO AM in Seattle. Dori likes living his life vicariously through the American soldier even though he never served himself.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

30. Kick

:kick:

[GOPAgainstGW]

32. HERE'S THE WHOLE DEAL BEHIND THE POLL-IT'S GOP RIGGED!

Time and Other Magic Bush Lead Polls-GOP Rigged!

You might find this interesting.......

Email Rec’d – 09.03.04.-13:32 EST
------------------

The Bogus Time Poll was a Bush-Cheney-Rove-GOP Retaliation READ ON:

Huge Bush “Real Dirt” Books to Hit Stores!!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=735192&mesg_id=735192&page=
===============
These two upcoming books are getting lots of attention. Unlike O’Neill and KKK Corsi, both writers are highly recognized with Hersh a Pulitzer Prize winner.

1. Award winning and best selling author Kitty Kelley points poison pen at Bushes:

A new book on the Bush dynasty is set for release just six weeks before November's knife-edge presidential election. The Family: The Real Story of the Bush Dynasty by Kitty Kelley will have an initial print run of 500,000, and the main source is believed to be Sharon Bush, the ex-wife of Neil, President George W Bush's wayward brother.

Kelley, whose unauthorized biographies of Frank Sinatra, Jackie Onassis and the British Royal Family have told tales of affairs, electric-shock treatment and more affairs, has turned her attention to America's first family.

The book could be the most damaging yet for the President, with the publishers, Random House, promising it will "cause controversy".
-------

Author Kitty Kelley is touting her latest title in enemy territory. A full-page ad for “The Family: The Real Story of the Bush Dynasty” is appearing in today’s Republican National Convention Guide, which is distributed to 20,000 conventioneers, staff and others. Kelley's book, which will be published Sept. 14, contains over 700 pages of Bush dirt and scandals.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5868734 /

------
Talk about moxie! Controversial tell-all biographer Kitty Kelley is now touting her upcoming biography of the Bush family at the Republican National Convention in New York. The Family: The Real Story of the Bush Dynasty is being advertised in the Republican National Convention Guide -- distributed to 20,000 delegates and staff members at the GOP confab! - http://www.suntimes.com/output/zwecker/cst-ftr-zp01.htm...

======================

>>>>This doesn’t make any sense! Why would Kelly’s new Bush Family bash book be advertised at the RNC convention if this book was so bad and going to really damage Bush?

===REPLY===

GOP DIDN’T KNOW THE FULL PAGE AD WOULD BE IN THE RNC BROCHURE - LOL!

The GOP Is Not The Only Ones That Know How to Play Real Dirty!!

Come on people, this is anything goes, no holds barred, last man alive....politics

You think the GOP knew that full page ad was going to be in their RNConvention brochure before they has 20,000 copies of it....righttttt!

Ya know most print shops are Union Democrat run, not that I'm saying anything ;-)

Too late for the GOP to get them reprinted when they showed up at the last minute, and what are they going to do, cry to the media and "market the book" even more before its released...ROFLOL!

That’s why the Bush-Cheney-GOP-Rove machine retaliated today with the bogus Time poll showing Bush had the new magical 11 point lead now, and put out half a dozen totally fraudulent news articles on various subjects against Kerry and supporting Bush through main stream news sources.

Gee as this pace it’s going to be a wild two more months, and the party is just getting started!

Deep Throat
===================================
------------------------------
Beltway and Texas Republicans
Against Bush-Cheney ’04, Inc.
------------------------------

[rullery]

33. These bogus polls only energize our democratic base

Let the Republicans have their fun, pretending that Bush/Cheney are ahead. It will only make us all work harder to get out the Democratic vote. The Republican convention is over, and what is their message? "Be afwaid! Be vewy, vewy afwaid! Better vote for Bush, or the boogy man, Al Qaida, will get you!" (Zell Miller, as Elmer Fudd). They have no positive message to run on.

[Snellius]

36. They may fire up the committed, but they can demoralize the faint-of-heart

When results of these polls seem so overwhelming, there are many who either just give up, stay home, or opt out. Rove wants nothing better than to create the impression of an inevitable, unstoppable juggernaut. A close or slightly just behind position, like in long-distance running, always seems the winning position. (This poll, too, may be faked. It is so out of wake, one wonders if it's not being over-hyped or secretly manipulated. These polls are as corruptible as Diebold voting machines.)

But, at least, it sends Kerry an abrupt wake-up call, early enough to take an effective counter-attack.

[GingerSnaps]

34. Last night on Oberman he admitted that the poll was on the War only

Judy Woodruff made a comment that they were tied when she thought that the cameras weren't rolling.