I Believe the Polls

[louis c]

Maybe not 11 points, and I don't think this is the "final score", but I think we're behind.

The reality of the situation is, even if the polls aren't accurate, the gullible, uninformed swing voter will fall in line behind the numbers, and that will make them a self fulfilling prophecy, anyway. Kind of like the chicken or the egg thing.

But there is plenty of time and plenty of room. First off, I think we're going to get some scandals that are going to hurt President Asshole. This Chalabi thing, and/or the long awaited Plame story.

The Family, by Kitty Kelly will be out in about ten days. Let the moron try to deal with dirt for awhile.

Kerry's campaign will be more focused and aggressive. It better be.

The debates will be here. Now that Kerry is perceived to be way behind, the expectations game has shifted toward the President. That's good news for us, at least in the first debate.

I still think the FBI, the CIA, and elements of the Pentagon want Bush and the Neo-Cons out of office, and they will hit us with a surprise or two to sink the piece of shit in the white house.

In closing, I believe we are behind by about 5 points, with a long way to go. I hope we will prevail in the end, because I don't want to spend four years telling everyone "I told you so" as we get mired in never ending foreign conflicts and face economic disaster here at home. I love my country too much to just want to be proved correct.

[michigandem2]

1. I never thought that after the convention

we would be ahead...so what its september and bush might have a lead...not 11 pts...we all know that is a poll that is just so off mark...

we have time, truth, and KERRY...he is a closer...so although I am not liking the campaign at this point...I know its gonna be better for us soon

[NewHampshireDem]

2. All the polls prove is that the electorate can be moved ...

If they can swing toward *, they can swing back toward Kerry. It's that simple. That's not to say that we don't have hard work to do, but just to point out that the election is not being held today and polls don't determine the winner.

[Frodo]

17. True, but (IF confirmed by better polls) they also show

That a 2-4% lead for Kerry is going to be his "high water" mark. He can certainly win, but it now looks like the range of final scores taking the swingers in to account is aroud +3 to -8 for Kerry.

What do I base this on? I though WE had a pretty good convention and basically got no bounce (say 2%). That tells me that we had already won almost everyone that could be swung our way (with current dynamics unchanged - which hardly ever happens). There are obviously a few percent who had already decided they didn't like Bush but who are open to change - and their convention changed them.

But Kerry now needs to win almost all of these swing votes back.

[lil-petunia]

3. words of wisdom,

nicely put.

But we are running out of time.

I see that Shrub has already managed to knock out one debate. James Baker is no idiot, so he takes control and makes positive changes for his team. Why are we STILL so slow to react?
Where are the rumors that Shrub is afraid, and therefore is running away from a debate?

Where is the fast response team?

Where are the letters, the news shows, the putting Shrub on the defensive.
WE HAVE ONLY 60 DAYS. And i don't see the necessary movement.

[wildeyed]

6. We are NOT running out of time.

Two months is an eternity in politics. Plus, Kerry is a strong closer :)

Try volunteering, it will make you feel better.

[Frodo]

18. Where does the "strong closer" idea come from?

I can't imagine (while admitting I don't know) he's run against many Republican opponents with a shot at beating him in Massachusetts.

Are there examples of this "closing", or just examples of him outperforming the polls?

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

20. I believe William Weld lead him in his last Senate race by 10% or more.

Kerry made up the difference in the end.

[wildeyed]

22. I am not sure what you are asking.

Kerry has a history of doing well toward the end of an election cycle. I have not followed his career closely pre-democratic primaries, but in the primaries, he came from behind to win the nomination.

I have heard, although I haven't done any research to verify it, that this is basically the pattern all his campaigns follow. I think he has had some tough pub challengers during his senate career. And the Governor of Mass is a repug, Mitt Romney.

Here are some articles about his come from behind victories in the primaries.

http://desmoinesregister.com/extras/politics/caucus2004/kerry/vitals.html
http://desmoinesregister.com/news/stories/c4789004/23378108.html

Once trailing Dean and Gephardt in Iowa, Kerry surged to the top of polls the week before the caucus and finished in first place with 37.6 percent support. He also won the New Hampshire primary.

[Frodo]

23. Ok. Here's the concern.

I'm not particularly interested in how he does against other Democrats. The things you need to do to beat another Democrat at the end are precisely OPPOSITE the things you need to do to win against a Republican. And the things you need to do to beat a moderate/liberal Republican (the kind you meet in MA) are not what it takes to beat Bush.

Here's my fear:

I've seen quite a few campaigns over the years and I'm something of a political junkie. In the VAST majority of cases, the side that starts talking about the "polls being wrong" and "undecideds always break our way" and "we want to debate ten times between now and the election" and "our guy is a great 'closer'".....

Those are the guys who are losing and know it. It scares me far more than any poll.

[wildeyed]

24. I am not a political junkie.

And I see your point about the Bush team being a different animal from what Kerry is used to campaigning against. But I don't feel like we are losing. Two months to go, an eternity in the political world, and John Kerry is a tough, smart man. He will get the hang of it an bury these a-holes in the end.

I don't know much about polls or strategy or anything like that. What I know about is how to work hard for the candidate I believe in. I believe in John Kerry.

You know who I really think will win this race? The candidate who can turn out the most voters. The race is too tight for it to be otherwise.

[bigtree]

9. movement

Kerry challenges Bush spin on latest jobless figures

John Kerry pitches his campaign message at a neighborhood lawn meeting in Newark, Ohio. His bus tour through Ohio continues today with appearances in Akron and Steubenville.
( NEW YORK TIMES )http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20040904/NEWS09/409040390/-1/NEWS

By JIM PROVANCE
BLADE COLUMBUS BUREAU


NEWARK, Ohio - The U.S. economy added 144,000 new jobs last month and unemployment declined to 5.4 percent, but Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry charged yesterday that's not enough to pull President Bush out of the jobs cellar.
"The secretary of labor stood up and said that 144,000 jobs is something to celebrate," Mr. Kerry said on the front lawn of a Newark couple dealing with their second job loss in two years.

"At the rate that this administration is creating jobs, you're not going to have a net-plus-one job in the state of Ohio until the year 2011," he said. "I don't think this is something to celebrate."

Mr. Kerry later spoke before 4,000 people in front of the Licking County Courthouse. The largely rural county east of Columbus favored Mr. Bush over Al Gore by 22 percent in 2000, but the Massachusetts senator is hoping that layoffs at The Longaberger Company, the Owens Corning bankruptcy, and a cut in worker benefits at Kaiser Aluminum will translate into Democratic votes on Nov. 2.

[bigtree]

more movement

Kerry comes back tougher

Democrat slams Bush, Cheney, says they 'can't tell the truth.'

By Thomas Fitzgerald
Knight Ridder Newspapers

NEWARK, Ohio Sen. John Kerry slammed President Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney and the just-ended Republican National Convention anew on Friday, saying their "angry, bitter lies' about him were intended to divert attention from their failure to fix the economy.

"Every time they open their mouths, they can't tell the truth about things,' Kerry said at a midday rally of thousands on the lawn of the Licking County, Ohio, courthouse. "It's time we had a president of the United States who could look you in the eye and you'd know he was telling you the truth about your lives.'

Kerry roared into the final 60 days of the presidential campaign with a slashing critique of Bush's record on jobs, health care and Iraq, accusing the president of leaving a trail of broken promises.

It was a sharper new voice for Kerry after weeks of attacks on his character and Vietnam War record dominated the campaign and spurred nervous Democrats to urge him to get tougher on the stump. Aides said Kerry was angered by Republican attacks on his war record at the convention.

http://www.presstelegram.com/Stories/0,1413,204~21474~2379174,00.html

[bigtree]

13. fighting back

Outraged Kerry takes the gloves off at last after Republican jibes

Democratic challenger hits out on Vietnam war service

Julian Borger in Washington
Saturday September 4, 2004
The Guardian



In yesterday's speech Mr Kerry made it clear he was aiming his accusations principally at the vice-president, who had used his Wednesday night speech to portray the Democratic candidate as unfit to be commander in chief.

Mr Kerry responded: "I'll leave it up to the voters to decide whether five deferments makes someone more qualified to defend this nation than two tours of duty.

"Let me tell you what I think makes someone unfit for duty: misleading our nation into war in Iraq makes you unfit to lead this nation. Doing nothing while this nation loses millions of jobs makes you unfit to lead this nation ... That's the record of George Bush and Dick Cheney"

He also implied that the vice-president was guilty of a financial conflict of interests, accusing him of handing out contracts to his former employer, the oil services company Halliburton, "while you're still on their payroll".

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uselections2004/story/0,13918,1297220,00.html

[Fionn]

12. * WANTS RUMOURS that he is afraid

Don't you see it? They're playing the expectations game. They get to get rid of one debate, with the added bonus of making it look like * doesn't want to debate kerry because Kerrys a GREAT debater.

Our opponants are many things. Stupid, alas, is not one of them.

[NewHampshireDem]

4. One more thing ...

I just love to bring these up ... not to taunt Dean supporters (I dated Dean, and Clark, myself, but married Kerry) but to show what a great closer Kerry is.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=763

Dean Stretches Lead Over Kerry in New Hampshire Primary to 42% - 12%; Clark in 3rd with 9% in Newest Zogby International Poll Two-thirds of Dems and Independents say it is somewhat or very likely President Bush will be re-elected.

Former Vermont Governor Dr. Howard Dean, who enjoyed a 40% - 17% lead in October polling of New Hampshire Democratic primary likely voters over Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, has stretched that lead in December polling to 42% - 12%. Retired general Wesley Clark is third at 9%, followed by Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman with 7%.

Polling in Zogby’s “Road to Boston” series was conducted December 1 – 3, and involved 503 likely Democratic and Independent voters in New Hampshire’s January 27th Democratic primary election. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points, and margins are higher in sub-groups.

North Carolina Senator John Edwards earned 4%, followed by Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt at 3% and Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich with 2%. Former Illinois Senator Carol Mosley Braun and civil rights activist Rev. Al Sharpton did not receive any votes in the poll.

[molly]

11. Kerry is the 2nd come-back-kid

[wildeyed]

5. We have plenty of time.

I believe we are slightly behind, too. But there is plenty of time to catch up. In addition to campaign issues, which we have no control over, there is so much WE can do. We, meaning us die hard dems, need to get the vote out. We can do 5% just on turnout alone. There are more of us then there are of them, we just need to convince the less motivated 'us' to get out there and support the team.

So anyone who hasn't already, get out and volunteer for your local Kerry campaign, Democratic party or just grab a stack of registration forms and stand out in the street registering new voters. We have one month to sign up new voters. After that, anyone who hasn't signed up can't vote. We can do this. We can win.

[agincourt]

7. One thing we haven't hit bush on,

is that essentially he's a phoney christian who talks about jesus and then drops the f-bomb. We've never challenged him on his "faith", that he's pimping the religion for votes. That has been our missing attack and until we do that people will continue to vote for him thinking he's guided by "faith".

[kentuck]

21. If we could get a hidden camera and have him saying the "F" word....

it would do a lot of damage with his Christian followers. I think he's a phoney also.

[unfrigginreal]

8. We are behind as should be expected immediately following the RNC.

There's evidence that the Time poll is overstating the Bush lead though. Check out Kos for the scoop. Apparently, leaners were pushed in this poll at the height of the Republican Convention while in all other Time polls they were not. So, it's not an apple to apples poll.

The biggest problem with this poll is the media's trumpeting of it. They're trying to build the feeling of inevitability of a Bush victory just as they did in 2000. For those of you that think that's tinfoily, Get A Fucking Clue.

The Kerry campaign and all of us supporters need to be campaigning as though we're 10 points down anyway. I suggested that a while back to someone when things were looking quite rosey for us and it's a mode we need to stay in until election day.

[moondust]

10. I don't.

Kerry is ahead by 35 points. Karl Rove is simply orchestrating all this bullshit using the willing RW contacts that he has and nobody will ever be able to verify any of it because they are private companies and individuals operating behind closed doors using protected company secrets. He is guiding perceptions and creating the illusion of consent. It's all a grand hoax enabled and reinforced by like-minded agents in the media.

Any questions? :)

[lil-petunia]

14. 35 points of light a'la Shrub senior?

I don't believe it, nor do I believe the 11 point thing, either.

But I do not see us being ahead.

Not yet. And I don't see out side using the media cycle properly.

Not yet.

Am I scared?

not yet.

[moondust]

15. Problem is...

you can't "use" an unwilling, antagonistic, partisan media for anything. It's they who decide to keep the Swiftnuts on the air, Ben (guy in Texas) and Sibel Edmunds off the air, etc., etc. They don't have to be fair, they know it, and they often don't even pretend to try.

[wildeyed]

16. I tend to agree.

Some of the media seems like they are finally trying to show some backbone and a little professional integrity, but at this point it might be too little too late. I would not depend on them for much.

We need to depend on ourselves. Get the word out person to person and through sites like this one.

[Davis_X_Machina]

19. Absent any move on...

...the right-track/wrong track numbers, or Bush's unfavorables, there's no reason to worry. At this distance from the election, these two are far more accurate predictors of how things stand than the horse-race numbers.

[franmarz]

25. If you believe the polls---

You dont live in Florida.