GOOD NEWS: Rasmussen Poll shows NO CHANGE (49-45)

[jefferson_dem]

Saturday September 04, 2004--For the third straight day, the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 49% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 45%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

[still_one]

1. That is yesterdays results, today is the 4th

[Renew Deal]

3. No, it's today.

The site has Sept 2. listed twice which is a mistake.

[StlMo]

4. Their chart (on the right side of the linked page) lists Sept 2 twice.

The text in the center makes it clear this is the data for the 4th.

[Fionn]

7. This poll is signifigant because

It's the first time since April taht one candidate has held a lead ouside the MOE for 3 consecutive days.

It confirms the trend.

Now, to work.

[StlMo]

2. How reliable is this poll?

?

[jefferson_dem]

6. Ras has a right-leaning reputation

Generally, i would consider his poll to be the "worst case scenario." But given the others, i'll take this one as a good sign. It is a daily tracking poll of 1000 new respondents per night so it may be more reliable than the intermittent polling of the others, in terms of reflecting REAL trends. Ras does have an odd methodology, however, in that he uses some kind of automated calling system. No self-selection though.

[StlMo]

11. So, the situation is probably a bit better than this.

Good to know.

:dem:

[nodictators]

5. No Change??? They were tied as recently as Sep. 1

Here's the data from the Rasmussen site:

Election 2004

Date Bush Kerry
Today 49.1 44.7
Sept 2 49 45
Sept 2 49 45
Sept 1 47 47
Aug 31 47 46
Aug 30 47 46
Aug 29 48 45
Aug 28 47 46
Aug 27 46 46
Aug 26 47 46

[jefferson_dem]

8. No change...in the past three days.

Of course, numbers will always change if you watch them long enough. Importantly, todays horserace shows no fluctation from the previous two days. This suggests the race is somewhat static, and bozo's bounce may be almost non-existent.

[s8hanse1]

9. It probably will get worse!

If you read the rest of the article included with the new numbers, it says that only 1/3 of the respondents had filled out their survey AFTER * gave his acceptance speech. Which means 66% of the respondents hadn't even heard the speech yet. I have a feeling that the Rasmussen numbers will start to look worse for Kerry by Tuesday.

[DaveinMD]

10. this poll is good news

we are exactly where we could best expect to be after their convention. This bounce will disappear soon and we'll be fine.

[mvd]

12. This is a relief

Good to see from Rasmussen. Sorry, I don't believe the Newsweek and Time polls. It is strange that they would both show an 11 point lead for Bush. Wouldn't put anything past the Repukes. I still think that given the viable choices we had, Kerry was the best choice to be our nominee, and I think he's going to win. I think Bush most likely got something around a 4 or 5 point bounce from the convention.

[KittyWampus]

13. Really, It's Weird Rasmussen (Rightist) Is Like This