Bloomberg report say Newsweek poll is 11 point lead. WiseMen said 13

[bigtree]

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aWMeOSOk0kic&refer=home

Bush Leads Kerry by 11 Points in Newsweek Poll After Convention
Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) --

President George W. Bush leads his Democrat opponent John Kerry by 11 percentage points according to a poll immediately after the Republican National Convention in New York, Newsweek magazine reported.

Bush is supported by 54 percent of the 1,008 registered voters surveyed Thursday and Friday, compared with 43 percent support for Kerry, a four-term Massachusetts senator. Independent candidate Ralph Nader polled 3 percent. The poll has a margin of error of 4 percentage points, Newsweek said.




I don't believe either poll but if this is so then it is old news. Don't Time and Newsweek normally collaborate on these polls?

[WiseMen]

1. 11 Point Gap. 13 Point Bounce!!! -- Kerry was 2 points up on prev poll.

That was the interpretation given to it by the Newsweek reporter.

Need to check the exact date of the previous poll and try to
disentagle the SwiftSmear effect from the RNC Smear effect etc. --
If that matters.

I personally believe that all elements on the Repub side are
driven by a single grand strategy.

Of course, there are some who believe that Rove has nothing to do
with the independent smear campaigns.

[gatorboy]

2. Well look who they polled!

374 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
303 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
300 Independents (plus or minus 6)

Does that look fair to you? I would say walk it off, but the media is still reporting this poll without specifics that 71 more Republicans were polled then Democrats.

[DemMother]

3. Are independents one-third of the electorate?

Do they account for one-third of the vote in general elections? Are there as many independents voting as Democrats? I don't have any stats to disprove this, but it seems odd to me.

[DaveinMD]

4. Democrats

outnumber Republicans by 5 percent in the real electorate. This poll has faulty methodology.

[DemMother]

5. I understand that part.

It's the independents that seem odd to me too.

[WiseMen]

6. NO. But most good polls use population weighing to obtain statistically

ballanced result. Precice initial sub-sample numbers are not relevant unless the sub-sample size is too small to support probabilities.

That is why they do a larger sample of Independents that is reflected
in the population -- so that they can make statistically valid
comments regarding that important group.

[Democat]

7. The bottom line is that Bush got a huge bounce and we got almost none

We allowed the Republicans to tell us not to attack Bush at our convention and we looked weak because of it. They did what they wanted, including bashing Kerry, and it worked almost perfectly.

Our strategy sucks.

[bigtree]

8. Suprise

The caveat given on CNN headline news was that polls taken during the convention are unreliable and will likely fall.

What will the carpers say when we start to rise. What contorted explanations will they rely on?

Incumbent president gets a boost from convention poll which deflates in the face of a Kerry surge.

We didn't attack during the convention?


The Associated Press
Wednesday, July 28, 2004
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/tribune-review/national/s_205493.html

More than 900 soldiers have been killed and nearly 6,000 wounded in "this misguided war in Iraq," Sen. Edward M. Kennedy told delegates packed into the FleetCenter.

And in a keynote speech that drew frequent and sustained applause, Illinois State Sen. Barack Obama described Kerry as a Vietnam War hero who has long made "tough choices when easier ones were available." Without mentioning Bush by name, he said the president had failed to level with the public before ordering troops into Iraq.

"When we send our young men and women into harm's way, we have a solemn obligation not to fudge the numbers or shade the truth about why they're going," said Obama. "... And to never, ever go to war without enough troops to win the war, secure the peace and earn the respect of the world."

"America needs a genuine uniter, not a divider who only claims to be a uniter," he said.
___________________________________

Thursday, July 29, 2004 Posted: 8:34 AM EDT (1234 GMT)
http://robots.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/07/28/dems.main/

Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio, said that though no weapons of mass destruction have been found in Iraq, they have been found in U.S. cities.

"Poverty is a weapon of mass destruction," Kucinich said. "Joblessness is a weapon of mass destruction. Homeless is a weapon of mass destruction. Racism is a weapon of mass destruction. Fear is a weapon of mass destruction.

Another former rival for the Democratic nomination, the Rev. Al Sharpton, accused the administration of squandering an "opportunity to unite the world for democracy."

"We went from unprecedented international support and solidarity on September 12, 2001, to hostility and hatred as we stand here tonight."
________________________________________

Associated Press/AP Online
Monday, 26-Jul-2004

Al Gore criticized President Bush for his handling of Iraq, the economy and more on Monday night and urged Democratic National Convention delegates to "fully and completely" channel anger over the disputed 2000 election into victory for John Kerry this fall.

"When policies are clearly not working, we can change them. If our leaders make mistakes, we can hold them accountable - even if they never admit their mistakes," said the man who won the popular vote in 2000 but lost the White House.

"If you're conservative, there's nothing conservative about piling debt on the shoulders of our children and driving the deficits up as far as the eye can see," the Massachusetts senator said in a jab at Bush.

http://usti.net/home/news/clari/news/wed/cd/Acvn-convention-rdp.RFa2_ElQ.html
____________________________________

Monday, 26-Jul-2004 9:12PM

President Carter's speech Monday at the Democratic National Convention:

"You can't be a war president one day and claim to be a peace president the next, depending on the latest political polls. When our national security requires military action, John Kerry has already proven in Vietnam that he will not hesitate to act. And as a proven defender of our national security, John Kerry will strengthen the global alliance against terrorism while avoiding unnecessary wars."

Today, our dominant international challenge is to restore the greatness of America -- based on telling the truth, a commitment to peace, and respect for civil liberties at home and basic human rights around the world. Truth is the foundation of our global leadership, but our credibility has been shattered and we are left increasingly isolated and vulnerable in a hostile world. Without truth -- without trust -- America cannot flourish. Trust is at the very heart of our democracy, the sacred covenant between the president and the people.

When that trust is violated, the bonds that hold our republic together begin to weaken. After 9/11, America stood proud, wounded but determined and united. A cowardly attack on innocent civilians brought us an unprecedented level of cooperation and understanding around the world. But in just 34 months, we have watched with deep concern as all this goodwill has been squandered by a virtually unbroken series of mistakes and miscalculations. Unilateral acts and demands have isolated the United States from the very nations we need to join us in combatting terrorism.

http://usti.net/home/news/clari/news/wed/df/Acvn-carter-text.RUEp_ElQ.html
__________________________________________
Former President Clinton's Speech
Tuesday, 27-Jul-2004 12:10AM

Republicans in Washington believe that America should be run by the right people -- their people -- in a world in which America acts unilaterally when we can and cooperates when we have to.

They believe the role of government is to concentrate wealth and power in the hands of those who embrace their economic, political and social views, leaving ordinary citizens to fend for themselves on important matters like health care and retirement security.

Now, since most Americans aren't that far to the right, our friends have to portray us Democrats as simply unacceptable, lacking in strength and values. In other words, they need a divided America.

Republicans in Washington believe that America should be run by the right people -- their people -- in a world in which America acts unilaterally when we can and cooperates when we have to.

They believe the role of government is to concentrate wealth and power in the hands of those who embrace their economic, political and social views, leaving ordinary citizens to fend for themselves on important matters like health care and retirement security.

Now, since most Americans aren't that far to the right, our friends have to portray us Democrats as simply unacceptable, lacking in strength and values. In other words, they need a divided America.

http://usti.net/home/news/clari/news/wed/cl/Acvn-clinton-text.R4Ne_ElQ.html
___________________________________

Kennedy's Speech at Convention
Tuesday, 27-Jul-2004

... a true leader inspires hope and vanquishes fear.

This administration does neither. Instead it brings fear. Fear of rising costs for health care and for college, fear of higher unemployment and lesser pay, fear for the future of Social Security and Medicare, fear of greater bigotry, fear of pollution's stain on our magnificent natural heritage, fear of four more years of dreams denied and promises unfulfilled and progress rolled back.

We hear echoes of past battles in the quiet whisper of the sweetheart deal, in the hushed promise of a better break for the better connected. We hear them in the cries of the false patriots who bully dissenters into silence and submission. These are familiar fights. We've fought and won them before. And with John Kerry and John Edwards leading us, we will win them again and make America stronger at home and respected once more in the world.

For centuries, kings ruled by what they claimed was divine right. They could not be questioned. They could not be challenged. The people's fate was not their own. But today, because of the surpassing wisdom of our founders, the constant courage of the patriots of the past, and the shared sacrifice of generations of Americans who kept the faith, the power of America still rests securely in citizens' hands. In our hands.

True to our highest and noblest ideals, we intend to use that power. We will use it wisely and well. We will use it, in the poet's words my brothers loved, "to strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield." We will use it to heal, to build, to hope, and to dream again. And in doing so, we will truly make our country once more America the Beautiful.

http://usti.net/home/news/clari/news/wed/df/Acvn-kennedy-text.RtjE_ElR.html
__________________________________

Sen. Kerry's Convention Speech
Thursday, 29-Jul-2004

Now I know there are those who criticize me for seeing complexities and I do because some issues just aren't all that simple. Saying there are weapons of mass destruction in Iraq doesn't make it so. Saying we can fight a war on the cheap doesn't make it so. And proclaiming mission accomplished certainly doesn't make it so.

As President, I will ask hard questions and demand hard evidence. I will immediately reform the intelligence system so policy is guided by facts, and facts are never distorted by politics. And as President, I will bring back this nation's time-honored tradition: the United States of America never goes to war because we want to, we only go to war because we have to.

We believe that what matters most is not narrow appeals masquerading as values, but the shared values that show the true face of America. Not narrow appeals that divide us, but shared values that unite us. Family and faith. Hard work and responsibility. Opportunity for all so that every child, every parent, every worker has an equal shot at living up to their God-given potential.

My friends, the high road may be harder, but it leads to a better place. And that's why Republicans and Democrats must make this election a contest of big ideas, not small-minded attacks. This is our time to reject the kind of politics calculated to divide race from race, group from group, region from region. Maybe some just see us divided into red states and blue states, but I see us as one America red, white, and blue. And when I am President, the government I lead will enlist people of talent, Republicans as well as Democrats, to find the common ground so that no one who has something to contribute will be left on the sidelines.

http://usti.net/home/news/clari/news/wed/an/Acvn-kerry-text.RDSv_ElT.html