More Newsweek Poll (52% Job Approval, 53% Want Bush Re-Elected)

[TheStateChief]

NEW YORK, Sept. 4 /PRNewswire/ -- Immediately following the Republican National Convention in New York, the latest Newsweek Poll shows that, in a two-way presidential trial heat, the Bush/Cheney ticket would win over a Kerry/Edwards ticket by 54 percent vs. 43 percent among registered voters. In a three-way trial heat, including Green Party Candidate Ralph Nader, the Bush/Cheney ticket would still win 52 percent to 41 percent for Kerry/Edwards and 3 percent for Nader/Camejo among registered voters. That represents a 13-point margin bounce for Bush/Cheney since an August 5-10 poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International for the Pew Research Center.

And even though more Americans (49%) say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. at this time (43% are satisfied), President George W. Bush's approval rating has gone up to 52 percent, a seven-point increase since the last Newsweek Poll (July 29-30), and the first time it's topped 50 percent since January. Also 53 percent of registered voters say the would like to see President Bush re-elected to another term. The last time a majority of Americans wanted to see the president re-elected was May 2003.

In comparing the two presidential candidates, more registered voters think President Bush has strong leadership qualities than Kerry (65% vs. 47%), is more honest and ethical (62% vs. 47%), says what he believes and not just what people want to hear (66% vs. 42%), would trust him to make the right decisions during an international crisis (57% vs. 44%), shares their values (54% vs. 42%), and is personally likeable (67% vs. 59%). In addition, more registered voters think President Bush would do a better job than Sen. Kerry on various issues: terrorism and homeland security (60% vs. 32%), the situation in Iraq (55% vs. 37%), foreign policy (54% vs. 38%), taxes (52% vs. 38%), economy (49% vs. 43%), education (48% vs. 42%), and gay marriage (44% vs. 36%). More people say Sen. Kerry would do a better job than President Bush on healthcare, including Medicare (45% vs. 43%) and the environment (50% vs. 36%).

Two months before the election, more registered voters (28%) say terrorism and homeland security is the most important issue in determining their vote. Twenty-one percent say it's the economy, 13 percent say healthcare and only 11 percent say the situation in Iraq. On that subject, a majority of registered voters (55%) think that the U.S. did the right thing in talking military action in Iraq, though 50 percent say the war has not made Americans safer from terrorism (45% think it has). And, among registered voters, 44 percent think Saddam Hussein's regime was not directly involved in 9-11 (42% say it was).


http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=109&STORY=/www/story/09-04-2004/0002244238&EDATE=

[Frodo]

1. This is Newsweek and not Time? N/T

[jaysunb]

2. Pure Junk !!

They either made these numbers up or only polled Texans.

[DaveinMD]

3. read the internals

374 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
303 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
300 Independents (plus or minus 6)


they don't match up with the makeup of the true electorate.

[lancdem]

5. Why did they interview so many Repukes?

Thanks for pointing that out. Traditionally, 4 percent more Dems vote in presidential years so that's a big disparity with this poll.

[TheStateChief]

16. It's a good point...but it doesn't say what the final weighting is

If the weighting is more Republicans than Democrats then this poll is worthless IMO.

[OilemFirchen]

26. Worse than that.

300 "Independents"? Not undecided, but "independent"?

In my experience "independents" = "libertarians" with a smattering of "progressives". And they don't weigh equally with dems and reps. Unless you live in fucking Wyoming.

Another poll for the trash heap.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

36. It's more Rpeub than Dem and mighty white

[Frodo]

6. The "internal" that scares me is

The difference between Thursday's polling and Friday's

Thursday (before Bush spoke) = Bush up by 49-43
Friday (after Bush spoke) = Bush up by 54-38


If you think the partidan balance is wrong (and it IS), you can rebalance it, but it's still bad news. Bush led 94-4 among Republicans but was only behind 82-14 among Democrats and led 45-40 among independants.

I'm also shocked he had 34% OF "non-whites"

[dennis4868]

8. 82-14 among Democrats

does Zell Miller's speech and lies have something to do with this?

[Frodo]

10. I believe so. But many here expect(ed) that speech to backfire.

I've met too many people here who had never heard of Zell until the speech and keep asking me "he's a DEMOCRAT???".

"Not really" is tough to explain.

[sundancekid]

38. unfortunately, not exactly ... dems voted this proportion in 2000! ugh!

[lancdem]

20. I remember Kerry's numbers on the second day were a lot better

as well. I just hope it dissipates.

[Renew Deal]

40. Bush went up after that mess of a press conference a few months ago.

People seem to like him speak. Especially on his own. They are looking for reasons to change and also to not change. I don't know how they could consider this crook honest. America will get what it deserves if they reselect him.

[West Coast Democrat]

17. That explains it. I'm not too worried now....

in reality, * probably received a small bump.

[buff2]

4. This is so phony.......

How can EVERY poll put that idiot up ELEVEN points? There is something seriously wrong with this picture.

[leyton]

9. Maybe he's up eleven points.

There's no sense in lying to ourselves.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

13. Sure. Right. Anything you say.

[dennis4868]

15. you may be right....

after the Time poll I said the same think and got bashed for it....but now with the Newsweek poll I am beginning to think we may be in trouble....i cannot think of a strategy for Kerry to get out from under this mess...he continues to get attacked by the repubs that are all lies and the media does not debunk the attacks....(remember the 2000 election?),,,,,

[doc03]

18. I think the media will get on Bush's back for a while now.

The media isn't going to let this be a landslide, they will try and drive Bush's numbers down now to keep up interest in the story. I think the media is more interested in advertising dollars then the country. Look at Fox, the Republicans have been whining about media bias for years and they just saw an opportunity for a built in audience. CNN saw what Fox did now they have are trying to out bias Fox for the Republican audience. A local talk show host was talking about the media the other day, he said since Fox has broken with tradition and is outwardly pro Bush, that you can no longer trust any news story from anyone to be fair.

[dennis4868]

7. why would Bush's approval rating go up?

what has he done since it was under 50% to make it go up....we have the report saying more and more americans do not have health insurance and the middle class is falling into the poverty class, Iraq is a mess, and there is terrorism all over the place thanks to Bush....what would make a person who did not approve to now approve Bush's job performance? He's done nothing!

[moondust]

39. The guy in the back room

doing the math was offered a free vacation in sunny Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. :)

[oasis]

11. Rove has been waiting for months to spring these #s. The convention is

convenient cover for the bogus data.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

12. Who did they poll...all Republicans? Pure unadulterated fantasy. Next!

[Clinton Crusader]

14. WHAT!?!???!?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

more honest and ethical (62% vs. 47%)!!!!!!!!!

Was this taken in fucking CRAWFORD?? The floor of the convention??
:wtf: HONEST? He lies about the time of day!

Im flabbergasted! He has lead this country into a war based on 100% lies, he has kept 0 of his campaign promises from 4 years ago, has ruined the economy of this country, has done absolutely nothing, NOTHING, Im outraged this is allowed to pass as truth! OUTRAGED!


:mad: :mad: :mad: :mad:

[dennis4868]

22. I feel the same way....

he has lied about everything....big and small things....his lies have led to thousands of deaths....it is disgusting and I blame the spineless dems for not holding Bush accountable and clearly articulate how Bush lied his way into war....the perception is that he got bad intelligence from the CIA.....NOTHING CAN BE FURTHER FROM THE TRUTH....Sen. Rockefeller and Levine could have done a much better job and telling the country about these lies.....

[Meshuga]

19. Bush more honest and ethical?

Who are these people? hahahahahahaha!

[Clinton Crusader]

28. 374 Repugs all named Karl

:kick:

[scarletwoman]

21. Why do so many DUers go immediately into denial?

I strongly dislike these poll numbers, too, but to immediately cry "bullshit" is absurd. It's a mark of intellectual laziness to immediately refuse to believe whatever makes one uncomfortable -- that's what close-minded fundamentalist types do. Don't we strive to be better than that?

Whether these latest poll numbers are "true" in an empirical sense is somewhat beside the point anyway. They will be perceived to be true by a large portion of the population, and it behooves us to remember that to this same portion of the masses, perception IS reality.

It is the utter pervasiveness of this phenomenon in our culture -- perception IS reality -- that actually speaks for the accuracy of these poll numbers. The bushco people are MASTER sales/conmen, they did a superb sales job wrt bush*, and the populace bought it.

Denial is not useful, it moves nothing forward. Face what IS, and then strategize how best to deal with it.

sw

[DaveinMD]

24. I said it yesterday

and I'll say it again. We are likely 5 points back. Zogby has us down 2, Rasmussen has us down 4 or 5. Regardless, this is a convention bounce. It will dissipate within 2 weeks as Kerry takes a much sharper tone.

[scarletwoman]

29. Of course it's a convention bounce.

The point I was endeavoring to make is that reacting with DENIAL to bush*'s bump up in the polls is not a useful response. I was referring to all the posts I've seen over the last two days that basically say, "I refuse to believe this!"

Refusing to believe changes nothing, and is in fact, counterproductive.

sw

[DaveinMD]

30. agreed

we are behind. I don't think by 11 points, but we are behind. In 2-3 weeks, the race will return to where it was.

[scarletwoman]

32. Yes, we are behind.

That means that the most useful response would be to ask ourselves what actions can be taken in the face of this reality in order to change it.

sw

[DaveinMD]

33. the tack

that Kerry has taken the last couple of days is the right course. He's responding hard to every attack and calling Bush on his failed record. If he keeps doing that, we'll win. This is exactly what he did to William Weld in the 96 campaign. He trailed for much of that race, but kept attacking and won easily.

[scarletwoman]

35. Thanks for your positive note!

May it be as you say. :D

sw

[belle]

41. Fair enough.

[dennis4868]

31. "strategize how best to deal with it"

i cannot think of a way that Kerry can deal with this....I mean for the last 3 1/2 years Bush has done such terrible things to this country and the world, has committed crimes, treason and his lies are big and small to the point that his lies to lead thousands deaths....so if people have not been outraged by this by now THEY NEVER WILL BE.....it does not matter what Kerry says or does. The media has pretty much ignored Bush's crimes and lies and they are not going to all of a sudden wake up and smell the coffee....

[scarletwoman]

34. We have to remember that there ARE people who are awake

in this country. Not enough, I know, but we DO have allies. And ALL of us are committed to seeing bushco gone from the White House. This isn't just Kerry's fight, it's ALL of ours.

We may not prevail, but that's no reason not to fight!

"I'd rather die on my feet than live on my knees." -Emiliano Zapata

sw

[Snellius]

23. The ball's definitely in Kerry's court

What's making me uneasy about these depressing figures -- coming so soon after the Swift Boat attacks and the Nuremberg rally in Madison Square -- is the silence waiting for Kerry to launch an effective response. It's not the usual Bush crap that bothers me -- it's only getting worse -- as much as the nagging fear that Kerry may not be up to such an overwhelming task. This is a much bigger war than one election.

[oasis]

25. These polls are using bogus data.

[dumpster_baby]

27. Nader is NOT the "Green Party Candidate"; Cobb is!

"In a three-way trial heat, including Green Party Candidate Ralph Nader,"????

This whole thing stinks of bought-and-paid-for media coverage> "PRNews"??

[oasis]

37. DUers should research their sources before posting.

[WI_DEM]

42. they interviewed 71 more republicans for one thing

and the Republicans were 91% for Bush while Dems were 84% for Kerry. If it had been an honest poll they would have turned that around and interviewed 71 more Dems.

[kentuck]

43. 71 extra Repubs are 7% of the total...

S we would need to subtract 7% from all the numbers...