Clinton beat Poppy w/out 500,000 protesting and without an Iraq war mess.

[Lex]

So, if Clinton beat Poppy Bush without 500,000 protesting Poppy's Administration and without a disasterous war going on, how can Kerry be down 11 points?

Answer: He's not.

The polls are counting "likely voters" and this means that the following groups aren't counted:

-newly registered of any age
-newly 18 & registered
-anyone who didn't vote in the last election because they didn't care Bush or Gore

That means a LOT of Democratic voters are NOT being counted in these polls.

And remember, the CHALLENGER gets the motivated voters (ones who want to see a CHANGE) and the incumbent has a hard time getting the same motivation to vote going for him.

[Jade Fox]

1. Ross Perot. Major factor in 1992 election.

[Doosh]

9. Clinton wins even without Perot

Perot got 18% of the vote, but in election polls (who would you have voted if perot wasn't running) it was split with a good 8-10% of Perot voters saying they would've stayed home had perot not run. The popular vote would've been something like 51-49 Clinton but he would've scored a comfortable win electorally. States like Cali, Oregon, Washington, Pennsylvania, NY, Ark, Missouri, Illinois, would've not flipped to Bush.

[depakid]

12. We could argue this one 'til the cows come home

the fact is, both sides would have used different strategies without Perot in the race. The dynamics would have been completely different. Whether Clinton could have withstood the full onslaught of the Republican smear machine on his own- and whether he could have succesfully furthered his agenda in the absence of Perot- is very much an open question.

Personally, I'm inclined to think he may have lost- but I only base that on anecdotes of my conversations with Perot supporters and my general perception of that wierd voting block. I haven't seen any really compelling evidence either way that accounts for enough of the variables.

[politicat]

10. That's why we've got to help get Roy Moore on the Ballot!!

Ole 10 Commandments would draw off the far religious right - who are not particularly pleased as a group that Junya has not managed to over turn Roe, put the bible at the top of every child's reading list (replacing My Pet Goat) and put all of the atheists, lesbians, feminists, secular humanists, gays, abortionists and public school teachers in concentration camps where we can make consumer goods for 15 cents a day and bring jobs back to Muurika.

We need Roy. He's not likely to win, but we need him on the ballot.

Pcat

[DieboldMustDie]

13. Isn't it a little late for that?

:shrug:

[GOPAgainstGW]

14. BS - Perot got ZERO Electoral Votes!

[tedoll78]

2. I have more to add..

note how these polls are oversampling GOP voters and undersampling Dem voters. If you poll 300 Democrats and 400 Republicans, of coure you're going to find the Republican candidate way ahead.. silly..

[Blue_Roses]

3. I was reading up that election last night

and Bush Sr. wasn't really liked by the media that much either. they did alot of positive reporting about Clinton. Bush Sr. was/is just a snippy old man.

Now this Bush is much different than his dad and I think that's why the GOP likes him so much more. How can a man start an illegal war on lies, run up the largest deficeit in history of our nation, have a dismal job record, forget the environment, have a crook for a VP, be illiterate unless using the teleprompter, ignore terror reports, botch up education, be a racist against a certain group of people who want the same rights under the constitution, etc., and STILL be ahead in the polls? I. Just. Don't. Get it.:shrug:

[Lex]

6. Gore won the popular vote and would've won FL without the steal

and Dubya was seriously propped up by the press in 2000, even more so than now I think.

[stray cat]

4. America is afraid

Unlike with poppy Bush, America is afraid of terrorist attacks and Bush uses the lack of major terrorist attack since 9-11 to claim he has and will protect America. Many Americans seen way to willing to abandon critical evaluation for the protective image Bush is trying to portray. Clinton ran on the idea that its the economy and poppy Bush was out of touch, Bush is running on the idea that its terrorism and Kerry is out of touch. Kerry must turn the table and show in concrete examaples how Bush has not acted to protect Americans and how his foreign policy is devestating to the war on terrorism. Kerry also has to provide evidence he can do better.

[dpbrown]

5. But with Perot

Of which Nader is the opposite.

[Lex]

8. I'm not sure Nader will siphon off that many voters this time around.

People have wised up. Not all have, but most.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

7. Clinton and Perot beat Poppy.

And, he beat Dole because of a booming economy and because Dole was about as exciting as oatmeal.

Kerry's pussyfooting around Iraq and the alleged "war on terror" isn't working. Hopefully he will come to his senses and start attacking Bush where he is most vulnerable instead of offering nothing but the DLC "not as bad" formula.

[A_Possum]

11. And it doesn't count me...

I was a Texas voter last time. Now I'm in NEW MEXICO, and my vote COUNTS.

Mwhahahaha.