Very simple explanation for the Bush "bounce"

[TruthIsAll]

Repukes stayed home last week to see the Hatefest on FOX/CNN.
They were available to take the pollster's calls.

OTOH, the Democrats wanted none of it. They went out shopping, to the movies, clubs. They knew the Repukes would flood the airwaves with bile and could not bear watching or listening to the Chimp or his Nazi benefactors.

Ergo, the pollsters only contacted the brain-dead Stepford couples.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[TOhioLiberal]

1. more to the point...

...the so-called 'liberal' media is propping him up, by giving him a bounce. won't last.

[havocmom]

2. Good point.

Maybe we all need some deep, slow breaths and a chance to think about just who pollsters talk to. How often do any of us actually get polled? And how slanted are the questions on those rare occasions when one of us does get a call?

[unblock]

3. excellent point, and borne out by the fact that repubs were overrepresente

[stray cat]

4. Hope you are right

How do they do their polling anyway?

[Awsi Dooger]

5. Come on, as a mathematician you know that's a reach

Almost nobody watches the conventions, which is why the networks all but ignore them now. The percentage chance that an isolated phone call either reaches a Republican home watching the convention, or misses a Democrat who intentionally left, is ludicrously small, low single digits I guarantee.

And what about the polling phone calls during the day, before the convention began? Don't tell me they called between 10 and 11 PM eastern all week.

[lapfog_1]

6. There is an easier explanation

which doesn't require pollsters to be incompetent at their jobs.

Let's suppose you are one of the ones polled. You used to be
part of the majority of unaligned people (10 years ago, probably
30 percent of the country fell into this category, hence the success
of third party candidates). Times have been tight, but you are still
employed. You own your home, and you think you pay too much in
taxes. You are pro environment, but mostly around your city...
global warming is not something you get worked up over. You
think gas prices are too high, but you haven't heard how anyone
is going to bring them back down. You have kids in school, but
you are worried about the college expenses. You been in good
health, nothing serious, but you hear horror stories all the
time about family members or friends that have suffered, but
you knock on wood and hope that you will still be OK next year.
You go to church, but you watch porn occasionally. You don't
care about gays, but don't want them in your neighborhood, don't
want them in the scout troop or school. You think that one or
two (maybe three) of the people you work with might be gay. You
don't want these people "inflicting" their values (not that you
are even sure what that means). But all in all, you are a live
and let live person. You were horrified about 9/11 and want
to bring the terrorists to justice... and you trust the President
to tell you the truth. You are still convinced that Saddam was
a very bad guy and probably had something to do with 9/11 and
only those liberal peaceniks think otherwise. On the other
hand, the war in Iraq hasn't really gone all that well, and
you are a little upset that a lot of things that were mentioned
by the media and the government haven't really been true. But
you feel that you have to support the troops (in for a penny,
in for a pound), and it upsets you when you hear people
rag on the war. You've seen a number of these swiftboat
vet advertisements, and you wonder how so many of them could
lie about such things. I mean fellow crew mates and veterans
just wouldn't do that, would they? And Kerry came back from
Vietnam and was a radical anti-war protester. Of course, they
were right, and Vietnam was a mistake... but did they have to
protest so much? You'd rather watch football or baseball
playoffs then the political conventions.

Mostly you want things to not be any worse next year than last.



-------------------------------------------------------------
Which way does this guy vote?

Right now, he is voting for Bush. But he isn't married to it
yet. Especially if it can be proved (to HIM) that people
lied to get his vote and the Bush was behind it. (My humble
opinion).

(Note, I'm not this guy, I never have been, but I know a number
of them. I'm not trying to make any rational for women changing
from Kerry to Bush or back, because it's harder for me to relate
to their life experiences - so this is written with a white middle
aged straight guy in mind).