Brace yourselves for a bad Gallup poll tomorrow.

[Teaser]

Just wanted to let people know that Gallup is coming out tomorrow, and I suspect it will be bad. Their "likely voter" screen is very skewed toward Republicans and always produces results that are pro-GOP. Frank Newport of Gallup even admits as such.

A summary of Gallup's likely voter screen can be found here:

link

With this in mind, the results could be worse than Time or Newsweek's numbers.

[jfalchion]

1. What time?

[rocktivity]

2. Gallup is a known GOP contributor!!!

And this double digit bounce meme is obviously a phony.

:headbang:
rocknation

[The_Casual_Observer]

3. I would guess that considering what has been going on that it might be

30 or 40 points. Why not? They can go for broke. Every man woman and child has been converted to a believer by zell miller.
Why don't they just round the rest of the few remaining dems and send us to gitmo or a death camp and get it over with for christ sakes. They would cheer the whole fucking process.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

4. I have one wish in life:

That I live long enough to see these rat bastards get what is coming to them. Long, slow and deep. Barbed, too.

[West Coast Democrat]

5. Labor Day weekend, no one will be paying attention but political junkies

then the numbers will go back down in a week or so.

[Teaser]

6. bump...so you'll be ready.

bumpety bump.

[WI_DEM]

7. My guess is it will not be as bad as TIME and NEWSWEEK

but I do expect Bush will be up from 5-7 points.

[Teaser]

9. I dunno.

If you read that piece, you'll see how Republican their "likely voter" model is skewed. The Newsweek and Time polls models are skewed, but their bad numbers cam from sampling too soon after the convention, on the night of Bush's speech (and not weighting by party).

Gallup will have done all these things, and they have that terrible turnout model to boot. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 15 point lead. Seriously.

I just want to make sure people are prepared.

[Democat]

8. Could this be the new poll?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2312403

Bush up by 13% in some poll on ABC according to another DUer.

[Teaser]

10. No I think that's the internals

from one of the current horserace polls.
Gallup ain't do out until Late Edition with Wolf Blitzer.

Another reason to puke. I don't want to see that little newsmonkey's face trying to read and understand a poll.

Ugh.

[Teaser]

11. one last kick

I just want people to be prepared.

[lablue]

12. bounce wearing off in rasmussen already

that said - rasmussen has the bounce wearing off already - today's numbers * 47.6 to kerry 46.4 only a 1.2 percent difference

[BillZBubb]

13. I pay NO attention to Gallup.

They are utterly worthless. Even Fox is more honest in their polling--and that is really saying something.

[topanga]

14. Polls are all funded and owned by the NeoCons!

There is not a single one that represents me, so why should I bother with them?