SurveyUSA Florida Poll: Obama 47, McCain 49

[Hope And Change]

FL Women Drift To Obama, FL Men Drift to McCain, But Overall, Sunshine State Stays Steady in SurveyUSA Tracking: In an election for President of the United States in Florida today, 10/17/08, absentee balloting underway and early voting about to begin, Republican John McCain edges Democrat Barack Obama 49% to 47%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV Tampa, WFOR-TV Miami, WKRG-TV Mobile-Pensacola, and WFTX-TV Cape Coral. The outcome is within the survey's margin of sampling error. Both candidates have an excellent chance to carry the state.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll 3 weeks ago, almost nothing has changed in the Florida data, at a time when the world has changed profoundly. Then, the Dow Jones was at 11,143. Today: 20% lower. Banks have failed, insurance companies have been nationalized. But smooth sailing on the Florida poll tracking graphs. True: men have swung 9 points to McCain since SurveyUSA's last poll; women have swung an offsetting 8 points to Obama. But most other demographic groups in Florida are stable. Voters younger than Obama: stable. Voters older than McCain: stable. Whites: stable.
Hispanics: stable. Moderates: stable. Independents: stable. More-educated voters: stable. Less-educated voters: stable. Pro-life voters: stable. Pro-choice voters: stable.

There is slight movement to McCain in Southeast Florida, which includes Miami and Fort Lauderdale. There is offsetting movement to Obama in Central Florida, which includes Orlando, and in Southwest Florida, which includes Tampa. Unique to Florida, and unlike other states that SurveyUSA is polling: those in Florida who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted disproportionately back McCain. The sample size is small, so caution is warranted, but unlike SurveyUSA findings in Ohio, New Mexico, Georgia, Iowa, and North Carolina, where early voters disproportionately favor Obama, in Florida, McCain leads by 8 among those who have already voted, and is tied among those who have not yet cast a ballot but who are determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to do so.

In 4 SurveyUSA tracking polls going back to August, Obama has never led in Florida. 14 separate research firms are polling in Florida. The last 10 surveys released by other pollsters all show Barack Obama ahead by 1 to 8 percentage points.


more...

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=45bb3f2c-2191-49e1-9d67-a326956b75ca&c=42

[thewiseguy]

1. So McCain will get 22% of the black vote?

[Hope And Change]

3. I have hard to believe that.

[quantass]

11. 22% reservation for illegal voter purging by the repubs...God bless their hearts

:crazy:

[Every Man A King]

2. Another SUSA poll giving McSame over 20% of the black vote nt

[oviedodem]

7. I believe it and why abortion, abortion, abortion

[writes3000]

15. Ummm, no. McCain will not get 20% of the black vote in any state in this country.

Especially not after the campaign he's run.

[oviedodem]

25. Let me clue you into something. I can go into 10 black churces and hear this:

"I like Obama but he is for abortion and as a christian I can't support him."


Now I would say that there are other important things. Their response:

"It does not matter"



I heard it in Georgia and down here in Florida. The same goes for some latino's as well.

[Alter Ego]

4. Yeah, and they mention that they're currently the only outfit that has Obama

behind in Florida. Every other polling outfit has him ahead by a few points.

[Cha]

9. We just have to work harder..thanks, survey..

Sarah Silverman needs to expand her Great Schelp that has already seen some good results.:)

[Schulzz]

5. SUSA never had him ahead in Florida. But it was always clear that Florida will be close.

I have more confidence in the western states (CO, NM, NV) and especially in VA. But I still think Obama will win FL, too. SUSA has a record of underestimating Obama in the south, it started in the primaries.

[bigdarryl]

12. he's not getting 22% of the African American vote count on it

[Marsala]

6. Another bad SurveyUSA state poll

Their Minnesota polls have been considerably off as well.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. RIDICULOUS

African Americans were 16% of the electorate in 00...How did they drop to 10%?


And I don't believe 22% of African Americans in Florida are voting for McCain...

[SeeHopeWin]

10. This is a pretty stupid poll....McCain is going to get no more than 1% of the AA in Florida...AND

Broward and Dade will go Obama with close to 70%!!! (I am hoping)...

I have worked hard in Broward and will GOTV starting Monday until NOvember 4th. I can tell you first hand, where I am in Broward, the country is almost all for Obama.

[bigdarryl]

14. any one hear on DU live in Florida if so hows the ground game there

[4lbs]

13. Florida doesn't matter much if Obama gets Ohio and Virginia.

As Chuck Todd said yesterday on Morning Joe, if Obama wins Virginia, the election's over and Obama wins.

McCain pretty much needs to run the table. Gramps needs to win every state that went for Bush in 2004, and it's not very likely he'll do that.

[SeeHopeWin]

16. We are more likely to win FL than OH....nt

[JBTO26]

21. Right

I'd be pleasantly surprised but I don't count on Ohio at all .

[mvd]

22. I think we'll take Ohio

Rasmussen might actually be correct here, but with that good Supreme Court ruling, I think we'll win a close one.

[Zynx]

17. They have more Republicans than Democrats in this sample.

Evidence is that's not true.

[nickn777]

24. Right: 44% R and 40 % Dems in the sample

This is simply not accurate....Dems outnumber Repubs in total Florida voter registration

[FloridaGrl]

18. The person making up these numbers

has no clue about FL. South east FL is not going to McCain, the Keys maybe but Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach is going for Obama. Plus, to think that McCain has anywhere close to 10% AA votes is a joke. I have yet to speak with one AA who is voting for McCain. At my college the students are very vocal about their Obama support. I have heard friends urging friends to please register and go out to vote. I have never seen it like this before. My mom who is a teacher at says that everyday her students urge her to go out and vote for Obama. I live in a red area of FL and the Obama/Biden bumper stickers are 5-1 if not I wider margin, for the numerous Obama stickers I have seen, I have seen only 4 McCain sticker to date. I am cautiously optimistic that FL is going blue this year.

[JBTO26]

19. This is BAD news

SUSA is about the most accurate of the state pollsters and if they show no movement toward Obama in Florida despite all the economic talk and the debates, it's pretty sure Florida will remain extremely close until election day.

[mvd]

20. Not bad news

No way McSame is getting that much of the AA vote. This poll is not accurate. This is one place where SurveyUSA is the outlier.

[Medusa]

23. So what the hell is it with men and their love for Palin?

Sure she's dumber than dirt and looks cheap. . . oh never mind. I get it. :eyes: