PA is the key to the current EV lie, but there are more.

[abrock]

http://www.electoral-vote.com is currently using the Strategic Vision (R) poll for PA and its 21 EVs, which puts Bush up a single percentage point, but as anyone who has been following polls and knows people from PA will tell you, that is a complete load of steaming toss. Ignore the media: PA is solid blue. This puts Bush in the rather insidious (and well deserved) position of appearing to lead in the polls, when in reality, based on conservative estimates, he is probably tied or behind in at least 3 other swing states, if not more.

My guesses:

Florida. SV poll put bush up 48-44, but we all know Florida has been going Dem more and more with each passing weak. The hurricanes haven't helped Bush regain ground so far, but time will tell.

Ohio. SV Poll there puts bush up a hefty 6 percent, 48-42, but Kerry is rapidly gaining ground there thanks to his campaigning there, the hate-speech repub convention which shifted inds to vote Dem, and the fact that Bush's policies are finally starting to catch up with him as people realize they might be screwed for real with 4 more years of Bush. As always, take the polls with a grain of salt, but the Zogby which is coming out this week should bear my analysis out.

Georgia. Bet you didn't see this one coming. The SV poll puts Bush a ridiculous 17 percent ahead, 55-38, but the actual numbers are much closer. I think Kerry may even be ahead if you take LVs and not just RVs into account. Coming down the final stretch you are going to see a whopping huge number of first time voters, not just in GA, but in every state, and almost all of them are going for Kerry.

There are other states I think the polls are misrepresenting (Virginia is another obvious example) but the thing to remember through all of this is: Take heart. Even if Kerry and Bush are neck and neck in the polls come election night, we have the advantage.

Vigilance to keep the election from being stolen should be our top priority because there is almost no way we can legally lose.

[PCIntern]

1. I dont' know about the others

but you are absolutely correct insofar as PA goes - no love for Kerry, but a remarkable resentment of Bush and the policies of warmongering, anti-environmentalism, and so-called pro-lifeism. The 5 counties around Philly are going to go big-time for Kerry.

That's a lock...and that's the key to the keystone state...

[jody]

2. Thanks for the info