OMG... this actually MEANS something

[troublemaker]

A phone/e-mail survey of 3,000 Michigan citizens found one of every four young people in the state report using their cell phones as their main phone, opting to decrease or eliminate their use of land-line connections. Commissioned by Ann Arbor nonprofit Cyberstate.org and conducted by Lansing-based polling firm Public Sector Consultants in April, the fifth annual report detailed a surge in wireless phones and wireless Internet connectivity.

The study showed 25 percent of respondents under the age of 25 only use a cell phone, while 21 percent of 25- to 34-year-olds rely solely on their cells. As a group, African Americans were three times as likely as whites to report their cell phone as their primary number, the study stated.

It was the first time the cell phone question was asked on the study since it was initiated in 1998. But Jeff Williams, vice president at Public Sector Consultants, said the cell phone numbers are likely a conservative estimate because pollsters by law may only contact traditional phone line users.

http://suburbanguerrilla.blogspot.com/2004/09/can-we-all-calm-down-nowin-2003.html

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

1. It sure does...

it means a whole bunch of people who probably won't vote for * aren't getting polled. Which means, as we have suspected, that the polls are wrong.

[Frodo]

40. How are you drawing the connection between

people who vote one way or the other with people who have cell phones as their primary means of communication?

In other words, what part of having only a cell phone makes one more or less liberal?

This is almost as silly as the republicans who say weekday polls favor Democrats because republicans have jobs and aren't home.

[NoBorders]

42. do younger voters vote lean left? n/t

[Frodo]

44. No.

They lean "not vote".

edit - it depends a lot of course on how you define "younger". I think the 30-50 group is Bush's best democraphic.

[Progressive420]

66. Im going to have to say that the younger vote of the past

leaned "not vote" but todays youth do not. I am 18, I was registered to vote before I was even 18. I voted in the primaries. I know a great many people my own age that are registered, have voted and, will vote in this election.

[StlMo]

54. Yes and turnout for younger voters this year may be much higher.

Young voters will be a key part of the election of President Kerry.



As a young man of 27 returning from Vietnam, John Kerry stood up before the Senate and spoke truth to power about the challenges of America’s struggle. Now is your opportunity to join John Kerry and John Edwards as they speak the truth about the challenges we face, while offering us a direction to a stronger America. We stand at a critical moment in our nation’s history and the 30 million 18-30 year old potential voters will help determine the course of our nation, and the world, for decades to come.

...

John Kerry, John Edwards, and YOU

This election is about you and your future, and the stakes have never been higher. It’s about your skyrocketing tuition and loans. It’s about your peers in Iraq who are risking their lives every day. It’s about protecting our environment for future generations. And it’s about the Bush administration’s unnecessary deficit and the unfair burden you bear to pay it off. The fact is this election is not just about what John Kerry and John Edwards are going to do—it’s about what you are going to do. Don’t doubt for a moment that you can change America. Doubt those who say you can’t.

...

http://www.johnkerry.com/communities/young

[belle]

62. Maybe not less liberal per se; but it does favor a certain demographic.

Older people, for one thing, I'd say; also stay-at-home moms and people who, yes, aren't working, for whatever reason.

I'm sure there are plenty of Republicans who have their cell phones glued to their ear. But I do agree that the poll system is far from perfect. Not that that means we can just say oh, hey, then they don't count, and ignore them completely. Grain of salt, that's all. And keep working.

[NMDemDist2]

2. i have been saying that for weeks n/t

[Warpy]

22. So have I. So has Gallup!

Land phone polls only contact people who don't have call forwarding to cell phones, answering machines, call waiting, voice mail, and dial up ISP service. They only contact people with land phones and no peripherals who are home and willing to pick up the phone every time it rings. You know, elderly and rural.

THAT is why the polls are junk, folks, and it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better. It's also why Zogby is contacting sets of people in each state online to do polls.

[devinsgram]

28. Me too!

While all the other doom sayers are writing off this campaign and say the sky is falling I kept saying the polls are really off when it comes to what is going on in America.

[roseBudd]

3. I knew the pollsters were not reaching...

cell phone users who ditched the land line and caller ID users.

[roseBudd]

6. I canvass African Americans everyday in Ohio

and they say, "he gotta go"

[TNMOM]

4. My family of four only uses cell phones....

And so does my brother's family. And I know the guy I work with at the office only uses cell phones. I think you're on to something big. There's going to be a lot of turnout among young people who don't use traditional land phones, and those folks will probably vote for Kerry in a larger numbers.

[roseBudd]

9. Kerry is polling well with youth

We need more bands talking to their fans

To see bands who are going to be playing at Bogarts in Cincinnati
http://bogarts.com

Email bands before they visit swing states!

[spanone]

5. Kick!!!!!!!!!!!!

[TlalocW]

7. Isn't it ironic, doncha think?

That the 21st equivalent of what happened with Truman vs. Dewey (poor people didn't have phones to be contacted so all polls were wrong - thus the famous shot of Truman holding that newspaper) could be happening again?

TlalocW

[roseBudd]

25. I strictly canvass low income people and

they are mad. Terrorism is the least of their worries.

[jody]

27. First someone gets mad, then they might progress to terrorism

:evilgrin:

[annabanana]

50. "progress to terrorism"..........you mean like, voting Democratic? aarrgh

:D

[belle]

63. But are they getting to the voting booth, is the question.

[Catfight]

8. I like it when Bush is up in the polls, it gives him a sense of false

security so he can continue to slack off and be his loser self.

[merh]

18. I agree with you Catfight, 100%! Let these folks

think they are ahead - they will get cocky and lazy. Also, the repukes that are "woobly" about * (or who hate him as much as we do) will not bother to vote!

[notadmblnd]

37. you are right on in that statement..

the prison abuse scandle has cinched it for some hardcore repukes. I had one co-worker that is mad as hell at bush for that crap, but he told me there is no way he could vote for kerry, I advised him to just stay home election day if he truly felt this way. By the look on his face, I could tell he was considering it.

[democratreformed]

10. This is a great way to start off my day. I think it's significant too.

I sure hope it's a significant number over all the country. It might even restore my faith in the American people. I have been really discouraged that HALF of us could actually like that moron in the White House.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

11. In 1948, the polls said the Republican would win

His name was Thomas Dewey. Prominant magazines used the polls to assume Dewey would take office, and wrote articles about what his administration would do. The media pundits assured folks it was all over for Truman except for the actual election. You know what happened. The reason the pollsters gave for getting it so wrong was that they used a telephone survey. They realized after the fact that by doing so, they were ignoring a HUGE Democratic constituency.

Looks like history is repeating itself.

[napi21]

12. Good point! I wonder how cell phone only users break down by

Party affiliation? I'm fairly convinced that wealthier Americans are mostly Pub. Is it then reasonable to assume a larger % of cell phone users are also Pub?

Don't flame me for suggesting this, I really don't know. Do you think anyone does???

[troublemaker]

15. It's more about age than wealth. Cell use may be higher among the poor

people who move a lot, college students, people who don't have the credit rating or deposit for regular phone service, and the fhe fact that cell use is highest in the black community... All in all I don't think cells are about wealth any more (thought they were a few years ago)

[merh]

20. Read your own post - yeah, wealth or income have a lot to do with

the sole use of the cell phone. Now, land line and cell phones are a luxury -- the cell phone once was the luxury, but now it is the land line. Low income, middle income making a their living pay check to pay check, can't afford the extra expense so they chose the mobile phone.

[napi21]

36. Please explain how a cell phone only is less expensive than a land

line? I happened to only have a land line BECAUSE of the cost of a cell phone. I would switch to cell phone only if it were less expensive per month, but all I have checked are not. I don't NEED to be connected to people when I'm out of the house, and to be quite honest, don't want to be bothered. I'm reachable by a regular land line 90% of the time. That other 10%, you can just wait and call me later.

I only see one good use for cell phones, and that's emergencies. It's a great asset, even if you are just a witness to an accident.

[merh]

41. Some cell phone plans are the equivalent of the land line costs . . .

The cell phone gives the owner the choice of being able to communicate at all times. They have children and they want the child to be able to contact them anytime they need, the travel or commute and like to know that if needed, they can get help while on the road, they operate small businesses out of the home and can't afford not to be reachable at all times. There is a myriad of reasons why the cell or mobile phone is more practical than a land line.

The issue is that having two phones - mobile and land line - is now a luxuary. Folks have to chose between one or the other and the mobile phone is the necessity and the land line is the luxury.

Good for you and the 90%/10% you enjoy. Others do not live as you do.

[TNMOM]

45. I agree, but I don't think income level determines cell phone use

The people I know who only use cell phones (no land phone) are all working white collar professionals. They are never home, so a home-based phone makes no sense. I'm one of those people.

[merh]

52. Lucky you! The ones I know had to make a choice, land line or cell

also, there is the transient nature of lower income folks. Some are in apartments that charge a certain rent, then the rent goes up and they have to move. The transfer of service cost is just too much.

Income does have alot to do with the use of only cell phones. The land lines are luxuries for many (count yourself blessed that you are not one of those!)

[southlandshari]

47. Living proof

My family is one of the thousands (millions?) who have chosen to cut our land line and just use cellular service because of financial difficulties. So I know this is not just a theory - it is reality for many.

With competition among companies these days, we were able to find a cellular plan for the same cost as a BellSouth land line, and the flexibility of cell phones in a family where both parents work like dogs to make ends meet and with small children to keep up with made them the obvious choice.

We could have kept our land line and paid less a month than our cellular plan IF AND ONLY IF we did away with long distance service, voicemail and all other features. And when we could have all of those with cell phones, why do without? My husband is an immigrant, so half our family is overseas. My job was eliminated a few months ago, and without voicemail or caller ID, insuring that potential employers could reach me would have been difficult.

Whether or not you want to be reached when away from home is a personal decision, not an economical one. I'm just saying that dollar for dollar, cell phones can be the better choice when every penny counts and you have to choose one type of phone over the other.

[napi21]

48. Thank you Shari. I also have BellSouth. I do not nor need all the

frills. All I have is telephone service. No call waiting, call forward, caller ID, or any of the other frills. I just don't need them. For long distance, I use a long distance reseller and make all my call in the US for 2 1/2 cents a minute. My son is in Sicily, and I pay 6 cents a minute to talk to him.

I guess it all depends on an individual's lifestyle and what they need in service. Sor now, I'll keep my land line only.

When they come up with some service that doesn't have all those damn added charges, I'll switch to that!

[a kennedy]

57. My husband and I thought a cell phone was to expensive also,

but we've got that trac phone....it's great, no contract to sign, no monthly fees, just buy the minute cards you want and there ya go. We love it, we do use it a little more then just emergencies, it fits our needs perfect, and we NEVER use it when driving.

[The Great Escape]

17. It's Not the Total Percentage of Cell Phone Users That Matter....

it's the percentage that use wireless phones as their only phone line. A more wealthy person would probably have a land line phone in addition to their wireless. This is a real trend amongst younger folks and African Americans according to the article.

[troublemaker]

35. Indeed, the issue is lack of a land-line, not owning a cell

[Spirochete]

51. The wealthy

don't have to make a choice between land lines and cell phones - they can afford both. The people who have to watch their expenses are the ones that opt to use cell phones exclusively, deeming them to be more cost efficient and convenient, IMO.

[Neshanic]

13. Very true. This is the "lost" information

Many younger people, under 30 have only a cell for a primary. The "older" crowd, have a land line and trend more stable and conservative. This is lost on pundits and is not considered in the process.

[TexasBushwhacker]

14. No one that works a night job either

To some extent that may seem insignificant, but when you're only calling less than 2000 "likely voters" excluding certain groups has a big impact. Plus, would their "likely voters" include the hundreds of thousands of people that have registered to vote since the last election? They had 62,000 newly registered voters in Ohio alone!

[roseBudd]

19. And I think the zip codes of newly registered voters reveal

to the operatives that African Americans are going to have unprecedented turnout.

so I think the GOP is still way nervous

[Kadie]

16. I know several people that have eliminated their land line.

Thanks for posting. Very interesting.

[jody]

21. You raise an interesting question about the randomness of samples

Well designed political polls use a variant of stratified sampling so that subgroups are properly considered.

If as you suggest, cell phones are not being properly included in the target population, then any inferences drawn from such statistics are inconclusive at best. I would be very disappointed, but not surprised, if some of the pollsters were indeed making the fatal mistake you describe.

Does anyone have a link to one or more of the major poll groups; e.g. Zogby, Gallup; that describes how they deal with the cell phone issue?

[roseBudd]

24. I have a feeling African Americans and Hispanics

and Muslim Americans are going to pull it out of the hat for us.

A recent WaPo article on Florida had a single paragraph devoted to new voter registrations in FL.

A worried Bush revisits Florida
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A39959-2004Aug27.html

The president's strategists had felt as recently as this spring that he would wind up winning Florida fairly easily, partly because of the recovering economy and the support of Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R). But now they are pouring staff and money into the nation's largest swing state after discovering that Democrats have outpaced them in registering new voters in recent months.

Karl Rove, White House senior political adviser, said he believes "the wind is at our back" in Florida because of the redoubled registration efforts. Bush-Cheney officials had been surprised to see state figures showing that Democrats had registered more new voters than Republicans had each month through the spring. From December through June, Democrats had registered 129,000 voters, compared with 75,000 for the Republicans.

[treepig]

55. yeah sure, but if only their votes were actually going to be counted!

:freak:

[jody]

26. Nov. 03, Gallup said 2/3 American adults own cell phones

Cell phone usage up substantially since 2000
QUOTE
Gallup's November polling finds a continued increase in the number of people who own cellular phones. Two-thirds of all American adults now own cell phones, compared with roughly half in 2000. Despite the fact that new rules by the Federal Communications Commission allow cell phone users to switch providers and keep their current telephone numbers, only about one in eight cell phone users say they actually will switch. Americans also recognize the dangers of using a cellular phone while driving, although about 4 in 10 cell users often do so anyway, and only about a third report that they use a "hands free" device while driving.
UNQUOTE

[salvorhardin]

23. I would expect

that people who use cell phones as their primary phone are more likely to live in urban areas, coupled with the fact that they tend to be younger, would tend to suggest that they're predominatly left leaning.

I myself live in a rural area but we have cable in my tiny town so I have access to broadband internet. I am strongly considering ditching my $50 + $13 tax Sprint plan for Vonage.

I wonder if that law concerning pollsters and who they can contact would apply with internet based services like Vonage? Certainly not a traditional POTS line, but it does tie into the POTS systes.

[belle]

64. The urban/suburban or rural thing is a good point.

Definitely here in the city there are very few people without cell phones. (I'm one of them at the moment, but that may change). Dunno what percentage have given up land lines altogether, but I suspect quite a few--I know at least a few people, starving artist types, who have done just that. One other factor: people who share with less-than-ideal roommates who have land lines in their name may prefer not haggling over it.

[mzmolly]

29. Bullcrap, as a Dean supporter, I've heard this argument before, and it's

baloney. Sorry to burst any bubbles.

[abrock]

31. Baloney eh?

Baloney huh. The fact I don't have a regular phone and my 5 closest friends also do not have regular phones leads me to believe that there are probably at least a FEW other people out there like us who don't have regular phones.

18-25 year olds who don't have any use for such a thing. (And by the way, have never voted before, but are going to do so in force this year)

[mzmolly]

39. I agree there are people who use their cell exclusively, I just disagree

that it makes a bit of difference come November.

[tuvor]

34. You can't burst any bubbles without a sharp argument

Substantiate, please.

[mzmolly]

38. This is grasping at straws. What Dean supporters were told is that

Dean had massive young suppport, and those people mostly had cell phones, and were new voters so we'd see a huge amount of support that couldn't be polled. We were told don't worry, it's in the bag (according to inside polls) we were given the same reasons not to fear.

They were wrong.

[tuvor]

43. I wasn't grasping at any straws.

But you can't simply say "baloney" and not back it up. I get enough of that from bushkissers on the Yahoo message boards. I expect better, and I get better, on DU.

Thanks for explaining.

[barackmyworld]

68. Young people might not care enough to vote in primaries

but the general election is another story

[TexasSissy]

30. The majority of young people don't vote, anyway, according

to the stats I've read.

[TexasBushwhacker]

49. That's why GOTV is so important

The pollsters call "likely voters". How do they come up with these lists? They base it on voter turn outs of the past and concentrate on zip codes that had heavy turn out. The thing is, the DNC, the Kerry Campaign, and groups like MoveOn have been working to register hundreds of thousands of people in zip codes with LOW voter turn out - black, hispanic, low income. There's no law that says these voters will vote for Kerry, but I think it's fair to say that more will vote for Kerry than for Bush from these groups. That's why we are working on registering and getting these voters to the polls on Nov. 2nd and these are still the groups least likely to be called by Gallup, Harris, etc.

[TexasSissy]

53. Zogby ASKS people how they voted last time, and if they are "very likely"

voters. It looks like Zogby uses both things to come up with a group of "likely voters." They don't go by zip code or anything like that.

GOTV won't work well with younger voters, although I'm sure it would help. And a help is better than not helping. But younger voters, when push comes to shove, don't show up or put themselves out to vote, if it's inconvenient. Voting is something that is increasingly done the older you get. If an election is the night before a final exam....college students may not turn out to vote. If the weather is horrendous, they won't go to extremes to vote.

Just ask Howard Dean, who relied on the young vote in Iowa. The weather was bad, and final exams were that week. Most of the young voters just didn't show up for the caucuses.

As for myself, I think I became a more or less reliable voter in my mid-twenties....past college age. And increasingly more reliable, the older I got (the more I became more politically aware and made the connection between voting and issues).

[tandot]

32. This is a great find. Thanks for posting, troublemaker

Younger people might be harder to reach anyway. They might be less at home during the evening hours.

I don't trust these new polls. I think some people just got scared again after hearing 9/11 repeated over and over again. And then the convention being held in New York and Guiliani being one of the speakers.

This Administration has f*cked up so many things that it would be unbelievable if they would get 4 more years. If Americans are that stupid we might just kiss Democracy good-bye and prepare ourselves for a Dictatorship and Theocracy.

[roseBudd]

33. youth has a resaon to vote this time

And the bands have never been more involved

[A_Possum]

46. Hush! we need to keep this quiet!

We don't want the Republicans to find out!

[Eurobabe]

56. another reason why Bush is toast

how many times do we have to tell people, the old paradigm HAS BEEN subverted??

[Cats Against Frist]

58. I would say African-Americans, definitely

Even four years ago, when I worked in social service, most of the African-Americans used cell phones, exclusively. Also, all the poor kids (black and white and hispanic) with whom I worked with in group homes (ages 18-21) relied on cell phones, as well.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

59. And 80% of people hang up their landlines when called by pollsters

Polls are dramatically less accurate than in the past.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

60. Good point

As a Verizon employee I know about the trend toward cell phones. I did not think however about how it would affect polls.

[Jaybird]

61. my brother is cell only...

i think he voted nader last time but is definitley voting for kerry this time. he's 31 by the way

[msongs]

65. All the kids at my high school use.....

where I work all the kids use the cell phones and the only time they give out a land line number is for the office paper work...so the office can never call them LOL

[barackmyworld]

67. College students

Almost ALL have cell phones and use it as their primary means of communication. There are land lines in most dorm rooms, but I would imagine that it's hard to catch college students in their room in the early evening hours. Even accounting for the income spread, most college students are probably liberal.

[Fiendish Thingy]

69. So, is it better to keep this quiet, or hope the media picks this up?

If the media picks this up, it may counter-act any "bandwagon" effect that skewed polls might have on undecideds, as well counter-acting voter suppression, i.e. "Bush is going to win anyway, so why should I vote?" You know there are people out there who would react that way.
What if, after reporting polls, in addition to mentioning the margin of error, the reporter had to say something like "by law, polls excludes cell phone users, significantly decreasing the representation of African-Americans and voters under 35".