Three Polls Show Obama Tied Or Ahead In Deep-Red North Dakota

[Liberal_in_LA]

Three Polls Show Obama Tied Or Ahead In Deep-Red North Dakota

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/three_polls_show_obama_tied_or.php

Three Polls Show Obama Tied Or Ahead In Deep-Red North Dakota
By Eric Kleefeld - October 17, 2008, 3:15PM

Might the Obama campaign have acted prematurely when they pulled out of North Dakota a little over three weeks ago, when the polls there looked pretty bad for them?

Three polls over the last few days have now shown that Obama is now either ahead or tied in a state that hasn't voted Democratic since the LBJ landslide of 1964:

• Research 2000, released today: Obama 45%, McCain 45%, compared to a 53%-40% McCain lead from mid-September, shortly before the Obama camp packed up and left.

• DFM (D), released yesterday: Obama 44%, McCain 41%, within the ±4.4% margin of error.

• Fargo Forum, released on Monday: Obama 45%, McCain 43%, within the ±4% margin of error.

As of this afternoon, Pollster.com scores the state as Obama 44.6%, McCain 42.7%.

This is a state that voted 63%-36% for President Bush in 2004, and the Obama campaign had previously given up hope here. If the Obama campaign's internal polling shows anything like this, we may see a rethinking of their decision to pull out.

[4lbs]

1. It wouldn't surprise me to see that the Obama campaign suddenly reopens some offices in North Dakota

by Monday.

:D

[fujiyama]

2. At the time he pulled out of there

he had his staffers go to MN and do what they could there.

ND looked out of reach and MN looked closer than comfort. I can't blame them for doing what they needed to.

But what do you know? ND looks closer than expected (and MN, asides from the senate race, looks pretty freakin secure). One of the advantages of having LOTS of cash and MANY dedicated volunteers and supporters is that you can shifts them accordingly. Obama will have some ground game in ND and he hasn't conceded any state completely. That's what has impressed me most. I still don't think Obama can quite pull it off, but it'll be interesting to see which states have smaller margins than expected. ND, MT, and GA will be among them...And I think those margins will indicate a large national popular vote for Obama.