Zogby pulling numbers out of his ass again (Obama by 4%)

[ps1074]

Obama has 4-point lead on McCain

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama holds a 4-point lead over Republican John McCain, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Saturday.

Obama leads McCain by 48 to 44 percent among likely voters in the four-day tracking poll, which has a margin of error of 2.9 points.

Pollster John Zogby said that while Obama's overall lead had remained relatively stable between 2 and 6 points in the 12 days since the poll started, the latest figures showed a bump for McCain following Wednesday's final presidential debate.

"Today was the first full sample post-debate and there's a clear indication that McCain is moving up," Zogby said.

.....

So, how can you have a 4 points race, when both candidates are holding their base (90%) but Obama leads by 16% among independent voters? And democrats have at least 5-7% voter registration edge?

If democrats at the polls are 7% more than republicans, then the actual result is 54.5 to 45.5 - a 9 point lead for Obama.

[ej510]

1. If Obama is pulling in 90% of dems and has 16 point lead you best believe he leads by more than 4.

[ThePhilosopher04]

2. He has to be overpolling Republicans...

to get a 4-pt margin.

[Essene]

18. "likely voter" methods can sometimes register excitement levels instead of leaning proportions

[ps1074]

3. That's what I am saying

For Zogby to get this kind of result he must have his polls with oversampling republicans by about 5-6 points and undersample democrats and independents... He is full of crap.

[BzaDem]

4. He only weights Democrats 2% more than Republicans. n/t

[ps1074]

5. what is he smoking?

In 2004, the turnout was 37D 37R 26I. The dramatic voter ID shift since 2004, the new voter registration, Bush, the economy, the war... Zogby thinks this has never happened. He basicly predicts the same turnout model as 2004. What an ass.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. I Do Wonder What The True Generic Partisan Advantage Is

I have seen it as low as two and as high as thirteen...

[Imagevision]

6. Mccain stated he was looking for a narrow victory? - voter-fraud time folks if Obama , nah I won't

even go there...

[Sensitivity]

8. let's wait to see other results. Interesting that Obama is moving down. Result of debate negatives?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. He Moved Down In Some Polls And Up In Others

~

[RBInMaine]

10. Zogby has been wrong time and again. His methods are very flawed.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. That's Because He Tries To Force The Numbers To Produce The Results He Expects

~

[Captain Hilts]

15. He's a Democrat. nt

[Onlooker]

12. Regardless, even 4% is substantial ...

... especially when you consider that McCain has substantial leads in some of the red states.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. I'll Take A Four Point Lead On 11/4

~

[my3boyz]

14. Obama's number are dropping in Daily Kos too. I'm sick of this shit! Stupid

people see Barack next to McCain. McCain makes a fool of himself but he gets a bump?

[DeeDeeNY]

16. It would be bizarre if McLame got a bump from the debate

No way.

[Essene]

17. id strongly suggest everybody take a deep breath and prepare for sobering poll figures this week

not that obama is going to lose his lead... but that it will tighten.