Gallup -Obama 50% -McPalin 42%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx

[Hope And Change]

1. The Ayers attacks are working.No doubt...

:sarcasm:

[DarthDem]

3. Hehe

You know, I pretty much always love your posts. :rofl:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Their Three Models Are Weird

I just average them in my own mind...

[AzNick]

17. So that means M-1 correct?

Ok, I am starting to feel good about this.

I am not complacent: I sent my ballot already.

[Hope And Change]

42. Yes, that is correct.

[Mark E. Smith]

2. McLumpy didn't get much out of the debate now, did he ...

I guess we could say he was "tongue-tied."

[LaPera]

5. As many have predicted the republicans will get the polls to 3 or so points before election day....

That's close enough for the republicans to steal it, in so many ways(purging, machines, etc.) again.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Gee

Why should I bother to vote or canvass then?

[4themind]

8. The More states in Play, the harder it is to steal

And more are in play this year relative to 2000 and 2004, where they could focus their Republican Bureaucracy/legislative Dominance in either Ohio(2004) or Florida(2000). It's worth fighting for IMO

[Every Man A King]

40. What are you doing here then? nt

[tpi10d]

7. Rasmussen and Gallup up a point today

Noted on Gallup site "decline in economic pessimism this week."
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111250/Surprising-Decline-Economic-Pessimism-Week.aspx

In my opinion this more than Ayers, Acorn, Plumber Joe The, etc. accounts for the tightening race--Obama plus 10-12 to Obama plus 6 or 7.

I think we're in a good position to hold this lead into the election.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. I Think The Tightening Was Natural

Let's go back in history to say, 1968


68 tightened, 72 didn't, 76 tightened, 80 and 84 didn't tighten, 88, 92, 96, 00, and 04 tightened...

I see a pattern...


IMHO, that other stuff you mentioned is post hoc ergo propter hoc...

[mvd]

10. Why do you think the likely voter expanded model..

tightened while the registered voter lead grew? Fewer undecideds?

[Drunken Irishman]

12. Yup.

Undecided voters will break to McCain, but how much I do not know. Probably not enough to shift the election, but I expect the likely voters to tighten to either a slim 1 point Obama lead or a tie by election night.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Wow-Do You Expect The Polls To Show A Tie On Election Night?

That confounds the conventional wisdom and is f-ing scary...

[Drunken Irishman]

16. No, just the likely voter numbers.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. In Gallup Or In Every Poll

Gallup has been in the MOE for most elections in the past sixty or seven years but the MOE is still three points...


But being in the MOE and picking the pop vote winner are two different things:


http://www.gallup.com/poll/110548/Gallup-Presidential-Election-TrialHeat-Trends-19362004.aspx#3

They picked Ford and Bush* as the pop vote winner but they were still within the MOE..

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. That can't be the reason

51-45 to 50-46 still leaves 4% undecided...

Maybe McCain voters are motivated too...Maybe it's juat noise...

[mvd]

18. I appears that +1 and -1 for the candidates..

indicates noise. Especially since registered lead increased. Maybe the sample yesterday underestimated undecideds, but who knows.

[creeksneakers2]

21. Most of those are Nader or Barr voters.

[tpi10d]

14. When Obama had his biggest lead

was during the bailout negotiations, during McCain's suspension, when economic headlines dominated the news and pushed campaign trivia aside. Things have stabilized a bit and McCain who is clearly tied to a hands off economic policy has firmed up a bit.

I agree most elections tighten and you could be right. But bounces occur frequently in the political landscape, and I think the big 10-12 point leads for Obama had some component of the economic headlines factored in.

[Drunken Irishman]

11. The likely voter numbers tightened.

It's now 4 after it was six yesterday.

[4lbs]

20. The "Likely Voters (Expanded)" is the one we should be using, as it's the best indicator of how

it will actually be on election day.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. Probably

It's unlikely every registered voter will vote...

[Zynx]

23. The one thing about that from historical experience is that Gallup likely voter model numbers

go absolutely all over the place. I remember the 2000 and 2004 tracking polls and their wild gyrations. They're more reliable in the last week because they tighten their modeling.

[dennis4868]

24. well that means....

we have a very very very close race right now....I am pissed!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. I Put The Over Under On Election Eve At 3

`

[4themind]

25. Quite possible although

we'll have to see how it plays out. If turnout either exceeds or falls below Gallup's expectations, that could be cause for deviations that we see either way on election day

[dennis4868]

28. Is someone who...

did not vote in the past elections but tells Gallup that they intend to vote in this election, are they considered a likely voter? If not, then this LV poll cannot be trusted.

[4lbs]

31. It has to be better than the other "Likely" one because it includes young voters 18-22 who couldn't

vote in 2004 but are registered now. These young voters are overwhelmingly for Obama.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. They Are In The Expanded Moded Which Is 50-46

~

[afridemo]

26. Why is RCP not listing this one, but listed the other 2 gallup polls?

RCP, I have noticed is like drudge. their fairness is in question

[Drunken Irishman]

27. Because it's not really a valid poll.

It was a month ago, because the election was still too far away. But now it's just around the corner, so they've gone to likely voters.

You can't bank on every registered voter voting.

Likely voter models this close to the election are probably more reliable than just a poll of registered voters.

[Robbins]

33. Likely Voters

Places like Gallup which uses them,and they always favor Republicans.It Is always taken for granted
Republicans are more likely to vote than Democrats.I am sure If we dug up Gallup from 1992 and 1996
It would probally have likely voters even closer than the actual results.

Gallup Is all over the place with polls.They want to go both ways.There are new voters this year and
could be left out of the likely voters.

Regardless If Obama can keep a 8 point lead among registered voters and can keep 4/5 lead In
Expanded Likely model things are bad for Mccain.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. Gallup's History

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110548/Gallup-Presidential-Election-TrialHeat-Trends-19362004.aspx#3

[Drunken Irishman]

36. I agree with that.

I think turnout is going to trump anything we saw in 2000 and 2004.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

34. Rasmussen Might Be The Most Accurate Again This Year

People have no need to lie to a machine...

[Drunken Irishman]

37. And if Obama is leading 5+ on election day, we're going to see a landslide.

You know?

That's a pretty significant national lead for a daily tracking poll, which generally run closer than stagnate polls like the CBS one we saw last week.

[afridemo]

38. Thanks, I know that, the problem with RCP is that if the RV had shown

a lower margin for McSame they would have listed it and included it in their average poll calculation.

[Drunken Irishman]

39. I don't know about that.

[Undercurrent]

29. Steady as she goes.

[Doctor_J]

41. It won't get any better for Obama unless/until he fights the slander

best case now is to remain steady

[dennis4868]

44. Agreed!

Plus he has to attack also....the media is not going to do Obama's work for him like they do for McCain...they are not going to talk about McCain's asociation with G. Gordon Liddy 24/7 like they do regarding Ayers...hell, the media (except for Letterman) does not bring up Liddy at all!

But in politics you cannot just keep taking the attacks and expect not to pay a price...it's not different this year than any other year...Kerry learned that the hard way!

[dennis4868]

43. I think all the negtive lying attacks by McCain

are slowly working its way into peoples' minds. I honestly believe we'll see a large percentage of undecided voters (as well as those voters on the fence about Obama) moving towards McCain because lying attacks against your opponent work. It always has worked. I do not believe it when people say that it's not going to work this year and that this year is different...it's not.

Maybe the Obama team will see this in their polls and change the way they have been dealing with McCain....they know that McCain has plenty of associations with very shady people and organizations....the problem is that the media is not going to help Obama like they do for McCain....it took a David Letterman to bring up G. Gordon Liddy.