What percentage of the black vote do you think Obama will get?

[bluestateguy]

Just for some history here, Gore took 90%, Kerry 88%. The all-time high, I believe, was LBJ who won 95% in 1964, though many southern blacks were still barred from voting.

[thoughtcrime1984]

95%

[WA98070]

4. The question isn't the percentage but how big will he make it.

[thoughtcrime1984]

28. 95% of about the most AA's that will ever turn out for an election.

That is significant.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. 95% Or So

~

[elkston]

2. I say Obama gets 93 to 95 percent. n/t

[Waya]

3. Between 95% and 97% ..............

[Drunken Irishman]

5. What were turnout numbers for blacks in '04 and 2000?

[KeepItReal]

6. Better question: What % of Black votes will be purged, caged, challenged, or provisional balloted?

Obama will get huge percentages of the votes that are counted.

It's the votes that are tossed out that make me worry.

[sampsonblk]

7. Better than LBJ-nt

[Doctor_J]

8. Depends on who Powell endorses

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:
:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

I crack myself up

[akwapez]

9. I think it will be around 95% but the issue is the NUMBER of black votes he will bring out n/t

[tpi10d]

10. 95% with record participation.

[Morning Dew]

11. In my dreams, all votes would match the AA percent total and come in at 98 %

nm

[RagAss]

12. 100

;-)

[Sebastian Doyle]

16. Nah, it can't be 100.

Clarence Thomas, Ken Blackwell, and Armstrong Williams won't vote for him. Condi Rice might, but she'll never admit it to any of her Repuke friends if she did. And then there's Ward Connerly, Jesse Lee Petersen, and a few other assorted Republican tools.

So maybe 99%?

[ecstatic]

25. There are black PUMAs... I think they account for maybe 3% nt

[featherman]

13. I generally calculate at 95% for my state by state projections

[Honeycombe8]

14. 98% of those who are registered to vote. nt

[ejbr]

15. I heard the same figure n/t

[LeftyMom]

17. 96%

And absolutely epic turnout.

[goclark]

18. I'm African American and I have only spoken to or heard

about 2 people who said they were voting for McCain.

One changed her mind, after always being a Republican. Now she tells me she is helping to GOTV.
Don't know about the other.

[lessthanjake]

19. Somewhere between 93 and 97

My guess would be 95, but I wouldnt be surprised by anything in the 93 to 97 range

[bluestateguy]

20. My own feeling is that 96% is likely the ceiling

Even David Duke in 1991 got 4% of the black vote in the exit polls, or maybe those folks were just having some fun with the exit pollsters.

[QueenOfCalifornia]

21. Get this

I am white, live in a republican area of CA. Have neighbors who are black and I had to convince the husband that Obama was better than McKlan. The neighbor, he is ex-military but I have also had some conversations where he says he hates Bush. Why would I have to almost leg wrestle my black neighbor who hates Bush into voting for Obama? I wish I knew. His mother gave me 2 Obama buttons. His wife never questioned who she was going to vote for. This guy, (I really like him) stopped one day while I was in front of my house and asked me the Obama -V- McKlan question - after I gave several answers he left... then a week later he stopped by again and thanked me for giving him some well thought out answers...

I live in the bottom of the rabbit hole I guess.

[Sorceress]

22. Well, of the ones that actually make it through without being supressed by the republican agenda,

probably about 90-95%

[TheDonkey]

23. 94-95%

[steve2470]

24. With the greatest of respect, why would any AA person vote for McCain ?

To me it does not compute.

[HughMoran]

26. Not sure, but turnout of Blacks, other minorities and young people will make the difference

Turnout is EVERYTHING this year - just look at the RV versus LV on the Gallup polls, they don't expect Dems to turnout as high as Repukes - we need to prove them wrong!

[treestar]

27. Everybody except

Condi and Clarence.

Colin we'll know about tomorrow.