We're Heading Left Once Again - Jonathan Alter, Newsweek

[steve2470]

http://www.newsweek.com/id/164503

John McCain's "Joe the Plumber" would no doubt like to have a beer with Sarah Palin's "Joe Six-Pack." In truth, Joe Wurzelbacher isn't a licensed plumber and Joe Six-Pack is a horrible cliché, but no matter. They're cultural kin to the iconic "Average Joe" who was part of Richard Nixon's "Silent Majority" in the early 1970s and Jerry Falwell's Moral Majority in the 1980s. But conservative majorities come and go. If the polls are to be believed, today's hard-strapped Joes have more in common politically with Joe Biden. And millions of them are preparing to do something that they never thought they'd do in a million years—vote for a black guy with the middle name Hussein for president of the United States.

Even if Joe stays Republican, Barack Obama will still likely win. That's because he has built a huge base of non-Joes—better-educated, younger whites, as well as women and minorities. These voters are the future of the electorate and they're progressive. If they turn out in the numbers expected, they could restructure American politics for a generation.

For all the statistical permutations, analyzing the makeup of the American electorate for the past half-century is fairly simple. About 40 percent of voters are reliable Democrats (whether they call themselves liberals or not), 40 percent are conservative Republicans (a term starting to lose its coherence), and the shape of our politics is determined by the 20 percent in the middle, mostly independents.


Since about 1980, we've been living in a center-right America, but we're center-center now, and likely headed left. Even if McCain pulls an upset, the Democratic Congress would nudge him leftward on issues like alternative energy and taxes (and his health-care plan would be DOA). Should Obama win, he will press hard for his ambitious agenda, even, aides say, at the risk of being a one-term president. Then it would all be about execution.

more at link above

[ErinBerin84]

1. k & r

I like Jonathan Alter a lot.

[skooooo]

2. I've only had to wait 40 years to finally see it! nt

[roguevalley]

8. there are books out there that explain these fourty year cycles.

I LOOOOVE this.

[HomerRamone]

3. But look at the cover story to which that is a rebuttal:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/newsweek-cover-america-conservative/story.aspx?guid=%7BBEFEBE78-3555-495D-819A-CE636632A1B2%7D&dist=hppr

In case the picture's too small, that's "America the Conservative".

Listen, Newsweek jerks, there's a difference between being afraid of identifying with a label that has been turned into a dirty word and not supporting policies that it represents...

[FatDave]

4. About god-damned time.

I'm sure I'll still manage to fall through the cracks somehow.

[RagAss]

5. "better educated"...finally someone had the balls to say that !!!!

[Overseas]

6. Yes Jonathan !! We HAVE been living in a center-right America since the 1980's.

Bill Clinton tossed some help for the middle class into the mix because it was sensible in terms of building the economy,

but Democrats allowed NAFTA and other things that weakened the New Deal approach, and didn't push for national health insurance back then when it could have done a lot to make Democrats more popular all around.

But yeah, glad that Jonathan acknowledges we're not moving FAR FAR LEFT like some folks want to suggest, but are instead returning to the center and may perhaps get center-left with Obama.

There are some "socialistic" policies that will help our economy a great deal, such as letting the government pay for healthcare like our industrialized competitors do.

[BumRushDaShow]

7. What the hell?

Why is it that blue-collar, working class black men are suddenly not considered "blue-collar, working class"? They certainly aren't "latte-sipping, Volvo-driving liberals". They work at the same places as the so-called (read: "white") "average Joe", and drink their 6-packs just like "Joe", and watch the game (or games) on Sundays in the fall. They collect trash, drive busses, clean streets, build cars, plow the fields, embalm and bury the dead, move household goods, climb ladders into burning buildings, connect up your cable, drive ambulances, deliver packages, lay pipes in the middle of the street after jackhammering a hole and digging through the rest, paint houses, wear a badge to protect neighborhoods, and pour out the asphalt on highways at 2 in the morning, just like your "average Joe". :eyes:

I am sick to death of this labeling bullshit, particularly the code words and the racialization of the lingo.... and I can't wait for the day when these mis-used definitions are revised.

[ShortnFiery]

9. Yes, but that will take us to CENTER. We've been far too right leaning since Saint Reagan. eom

[salonghorn70]

10. I Guess It Will Be A Left Move

considering that we are far right now. Obama will govern from the center and this will cause problems for him on DU with those who think that we are electing a leftist.