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Ok, this is just my opinion, but this has been the case the past two elections.
In 2004, Kerry was slipping in the polls entering the final week of the campaign and surged back into a statistical tie with Bush.
In 2000, Bush looked well on his way to a victory over Gore, however, in the final days of the campaign, he pulled into a tie with Bush, and as we all know, actually won the popular vote.
So will it happen again this year? If Obama leads by an average of 4+ points entering the final week of the campaign, I think we'll be sitting pretty. Democrats close strong, unfortunately, the last two candidates weren't in the same position Obama currently is in, meaning they weren't leading at this point.
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