Why KERRY Didn't Get a Big Bounce

[liberalpragmatist]

Firstly, the polls showing Bush with an 11-point lead are outliers - even most pollsters have dismissed them. That said, Bush is probably in a lead of perhaps 5 points.

That's the same lead, actually a little bit less than the lead that Kerry had coming out of the DNC. However, don't forget that Kerry was ALREADY ahead of Bush before his convention - His numbers couldn't go up too much because he was already ahead, so his numbers just got bumped by about 3 or 4 points.

Bush was behind, but this August, he has made up more ground, so he now has probably a 3 to 5 point lead, which is a bigger bounce because he was behind to begin with.

[noahmijo]

1. Plus WHERE are they polling these people?

I noticed that in the Time poll they called it an 11 point led yet they polled only about 980 some people or something? I don't remember but still if it's 1,000 people I'd hardly call that a good representation, not to mention how many of these people were polled in clear Red states like Alabama or Mississippi as opposed to clear Kerry states?

[topanga]

2. Plus who controls the polls?

Repubs, thats who!

[louis c]

3. The Polling Data is Faulty

Read the threads on the over polling of Repukes in both polls

[sundog]

4. Well maybe if the majority of those polled weren't repubs...

we might get a real figure.

Remember, corporate media will always be skewed toward *.

Do you think the CEO of Newsweek wants Kerry to win?

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040904/nysa058_1.html

[no name no slogan]

5. Basically, it's still a dead heat

most of those polls have a margin of error of AT LEAST 3%, if not higher. So we're still basically tied after all is said and done.

However, in my own swing state, I've noticed a lot more Kerry/Edwards bumper stickers than W bumper stickers. A LOT more. Of course, we've been solid blue in the past (last Repub to win was Nixon in 1972), but we have a GOP governor, and GOP control of state house, too.

Needless to say, both candidates have been here at least four times, and their surrogates even more so. But still it looks like Kerry/Edwards are still up, even by a few points. Right now I'll take anything we can get and work even harder to get MORE.

[tblue37]

6. The Repub and Dem internal polls show only a 4-point lead from convention.

From Talking Points Memo:

A note on polls: as of the day after the convention I'm told by what I believe to be reliable sources that the internal polls of both campaigns had President Bush up roughly four points on John Kerry.

Getting straight-up info on what each campaigns' own polls are telling them is inherently difficult. And I want to make clear that I have not seen the data with my own eyes. But I have heard this from sources (for each side) which I believe to be reliable. And I'm passing the information on on that caveat-ed basis.


http://talkingpointsmemo.com