Wow! This is looking better for Kerry....

[skooooo]

...I know, just another poll..but still!

http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/sep04p.html

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

1. I'm working

to make Arkansas more than "barely Kerry".

[expatriot]

2. fight poll with poll, pick and choose and let's fly higher

[Hepburn]

3. When was the poll done?

Maybe I missed it.....so someone please let me know. TIA

[wryter2000]

10. I can't find it, either, right now

That site is usually updated frequently. I don't think it's a poll, per se, as much as a summary of a bunch of other polls.

[question everything]

19. Says Sept. 4. This is also in the URL n/t

[TexasSissy]

29. Click on the Excel link in upper right corner, and you will see

the spreadsheet that lists the polls for each and every state. He uses ALL the polls, so they are listed on the spreadsheet. Which poll, the date of the poll, etc. It's really cool.

[polmaven]

35. It "was" done

by electoral-vote.com on November 2. It is a projection EV map. As you move the cursor from state to state, look at the "source" at the bottom of the numbers. Also, look at the explanation below the map. It is sheer speculation. Some of it is really stretching credulity.

[TeacherCreature]

4. California is BARELY Kerry?

That's what is says...is it true?

[skooooo]

5. Umm...

I'm not worried about California.

Look at Tennessee!! PA!

Arkansas!
OK! <-------WTF The race shouldn't be THAT close in Oklahoma!
MO!
IA!
AZ!!
Colorado!!!

[wryter2000]

13. California has been polling weirdly lately

But this state is not going for *. No way.

[wtmusic]

17. Sure. And this state would never elect Arnold as a governor.

If Junior pulls CA it's all over. Never say never.

[question everything]

21. It says Weak Kerry. And MN is now Exactly tied

The only state, in fact. What a shame from a state with such a history of being a strong liberal and Democrat.

[michigandem2]

6. its up and down but its really

probably MORE accurate than what the freaking media is reporting..I mean people are SO angry witht his corrupt administration...its no secret...I believe the media will just be blown away on Election day and after...I know its just a poll and I take them all with a grain of salt even though the time and newsweek polls couldn't be MORE wrong...it pisses me off that the media is talking so glum about Kerry like the election were held tomorrow and he is toast...they will see...THEY WILL SEE!

[knight_of_the_star]

7. Watch me tip Nevada

I may be in California, but California is no "weak blue" state, and we have activists to spare to knock down Nevada from barely Bush to Kerry.

[skooooo]

Go baby go!@!!!!

Yeah! I like the way this looks...

Now what can I do if I already live in a blue state?

[merbex]

8. Oklahoma???!!!!

HUH?

But I'll take it

[onehandle]

9. That is a special projected poll. Here's the actual current one...

This is their current poll based on current data:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

The one you posted is "based on the projections from the linear regression lines on the state polls".

[skooooo]

12. What's "linear regression lines "???

[onehandle]

14. Read the fine print below the map at your link.

It's based on mathematical theory.

Also they say:
"The data are very noisy, so this map should not be taken too seriously until October."

[skooooo]

16. I know..but I can hope....

Damn, even Indiana is turning pink!!!!

Woo hoo

[Doohickie]

24. Linear Regression

Is the mathematical practice of taking a bunch of points and determining the line that best goes through them. It looks at not just the current numbers, but past history, turns all the data into straight lines and runs them out to Election Day.

Since we don't know what the long term trend from the RNC is, it does not necessarily reflect reality. If the bump up for Shrub goes away, then those numbers are probably not too bad, but if he sustains the RNC bump, the trends will eventually reflect that and the projected numbers will eventually favor Shrub.

I think waiting a month for the RNC to stabilize is pretty reasonable.

[TeacherCreature]

22. THIS one has Bush wining PA!!!! Lord help us...

I live here and we are working hard to defeat him...but this is not very encouraging is it?

[0rganism]

23. That's the Strategic Vision poll, which tilts heavily republican

Think of it as a worst-case scenario where voter turnout favors the Strategic Vision sampling and weighting models.

electoral-vote.com posts the most recent poll from any state, regardless of which company does the poll.

[TeacherCreature]

25. Well I sure hope we do better than that poll suggested.

Without PA, Kerry cannot possibly win this.

[skooooo]

26. sure he can...

..if he loses PA he could pick up Tenn and Colorado and still win.

[0rganism]

34. IMHO, Kerry has a much better chance of pulling in PA than TN

I think any "conventional wisdom" scenario for a Kerry victory includes one of these three states: PA, OH, FL

There are weird alternate scenarios that replace a big vote state with a combo of, say, AZ and MO, or NV and NC, but I wouldn't rely on those to come through.

[okieinpain]

11. I don't know about oklahoma, they are showing it barely kerry, but a lot

of folks didn't think that henry would beat what's his name, oh yeah largent. if kerry can snatch oklahoma, then he will be the next president.

[mckara]

15. God! I Hope It Proves to Be Accurate.

AZ, CO, OK, AR, MO, & TN ~ God bless their political hearts!
MN, FL, WV, VA, NC are all within our grasp. lET'S KEEP WORKING AND MAKE THIS HAPPEN!

[Octafish]

20. What mckara said! AZ, CO, OK, AR, MO & TN!!!!!!!!! Wow!

Good people in those states -- and in ALL these United States!

BTW: A hearty welcome to DU, mckara! Look forward to reading your posts!

[TexasSissy]

30. OK and Arkansas a weak Kerry! That's terrific! Way to go, Kerry!

What in the hades happened with that? They are generally Republican states, and in the Bush area of the country. Wowzeewowwow!

[NMDemDist2]

18. that is the predictor page not the current polls page

http://www.electoral-vote.com/index.html

he uses only state polls and doesn't use national polls for his results

here are national results

Pollster Kerry Bush
American Research Group 48 47
The Economist 45 44
Leger 47 51
Newsweek 41 52
Rasmussen 45 49
Time 41 52
Zogby 44 46

[SangamonTaylor]

27. I don't buy the Oklahoma "regression"

The OK regression looks quite fishy to me. I don't buy it. I'd like to see OK go for Kerry, but I highly doubt it. Still there are plenty of reasons to fight for it.

[skooooo]

32. right, it seems unlikely...

Still, maybe it will make Bush spend money there...

[gollygee]

28. Finally! Something showing Michigan as "strong Kerry" (m)

it sure feels that way from where I'm sitting.

[Suzi Creamcheese]

31. Oklahoma for Kerry?

really, I'm surprised

[skooooo]

33. its just a longterm projection...

...I doubt it will happen.

[Kimber Scott]

36. Arizona "Barely Kerry"? OMFG!

I don't know if they're making this stuff up, but it sure looks good to me!

[fujiyama]

37. Kerry

winning OK - somehow I'm not buying it. That's like Bush winning Massachusetts.

I think the linear regression thing is very questionable. I don't think it's a very accurate or reliable way of predicting trends.

I also don't see Kerry margin of victory in California being smaller than that in several other more competetive states.

[skooooo]

38. The site says not to pay too much attention..

...until october.

[daddybear]

39. Check it out...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&e=5&u=/ap/20040905/ap_on_el_pr/bush_national_guard