Gallup/CNN/USAToday - Registered Voters Bush 49 Kerry 48 - a DEAD HEAT

[ruggerson]

The registered voter numbers are Bush 49 Kerry 48

The likely voter numbers from the same poll that CNN will play up are the 52 - 45 numbers.

These, historically, are very bad numbers for an incumbent president right after his convention.

Hopefully, Kerry surrogates will spin this as disastrous for Bush.

[wryter2000]

1. Thanks for the good news

Let's hope we can pull away now.

[David Dunham]

2. That's before Kitty Kelly's Coke revelations!!

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

8. Not to mention F-9/11

due for release in October. I have a feeling a lot of people who didn't see it in the theaters will see it on video. Maybe that will change a few minds.

[rsmith6621]

3. Links Please

Please post a link....

[jefferson_dem]

4. LINK -

http://www.gallup.com/content/?ci=12922

[meti57b]

5. I guess instead of a bounce, it was a bouncelet.

[ruggerson]

6. Smallest Incumbent Bounce in Gallup History

[rocktivity]

7. What's the difference between registered and likely, anyway?

Which of them is the more significant?

:shrug:
rocknation

[Feanorcurufinwe]

9. In the likely voter model, only the voters the pollster decides to count

count. And anyone who didn't vote in 2000 is automatically thrown out.

[DemMother]

10. Good explanation from donkey rising...

"Adventures in Likely Voter Land
It has not escaped my notice that many people are puzzled as to how exactly polls go about determining "likely voters" (LVs). There's a good reason for this: polling firms or sponsors rarely put much effort into explaining, clearly and precisely, the mechanics of how they select these LVs.

So, as a public service, here's how they do it. Let's start with Gallup. According to David Moore of Gallup:

Gallup asks each respondent seven LV screening questions, and gives each person an LV score of 0 to 7. , the top 55% are classified as likely voters.
In practice that typically means all of the "7"s--given full weight--plus some proportion of those with lower scores (usually the "6"s), who are weighted down so that the size of the likely voter sample matches the projected turnout for the year (apparently 55 percent this year). All other voters are discarded from the sample.

What are the Gallup likely voter questions? Unfortunately, the exact questions and their wording are not released by Gallup along with their polling data, but the questions apparently involve past voting behavior, interest in the election, intention to vote in the election and knowledge of things like the location of the local polling place."

more at: (scroll down to September 2nd entry.

http://emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/index.php

[Ducks In A Row]

11. the topic should be...

bush's lead crumbles!

[swag]

12. The bounce that evaporated overnight

[AmerDem]

13. did someone say "bounce"?

BAHAHAHA :kick: