Kerry: 80% win prob, 290 EV, based on latest state polls.

[TruthIsAll]

Zogby will have a bunch of new polls coming out this week.

Kerry is still the favorite - and he's at rock bottom.
He goes up from here because of:

New soldiers:
Carville
Begala
Greenberg

New authors:
Kitty Kelly - thrashes the BFEE
Bob Graham - 9/11 coverup of the Saudi involvment
Seymour Hersh - the definitive Iraq expose

New home entertainment:
F9/11 on CD - now everyone will see it

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[BamaLefty]

Take the White House Back!

And we will in November! I just wish the Southern states could see the light... it's GOP hell if you are liberal like me. One day the residents will wake up though.

[Demi_Babe]

6. I'm a southerner

and I am wide awake and voting for Kerry!!!:headbang:

[LTR]

1. "The Hunting of the President" comes out on DVD 9/28

You can buy it on Amazon for $13.99.

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/B0002IQK9U/qid=1094526933/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_1/102-1097082-7306556?v=glance&s=dvd

[goclark]

11. You must see this picture!!

It will make you love Clinton and Hilliary forever.

[Old and In the Way]

2. I agree.

And don't forget the debates. Bush and Kerry, side-by-side, each having to make extemperaneous comments on the issues. Should be quite revealing to the public.

[seabeyond]

3. truthisall i appreciate

you doing this. thank you. i always like coming in and looking at your numbers

[Zomby Woof]

4. Begala confirmed he is NOT on the team

Both he and Carville are NOT working for the Kerry campaign. They are staying at CNN. Begala confirmed this on Larry King earlier.

I don't think Kitty Kelley's book will sway undecideds at all. It's meat for the masses at best, with no nutritional value. After all, her previous books didn't alter general opinion of their subjects, despite being bestsellers.

Your percentages are interesting, but have no more or less validity than any of the mainstream polls.

ZombyTroof Is All. ;-)

[LiberalFighter]

5. It won't sway undecideds but it will give them doubt

[Quixote1818]

7. When were most of these polls taken? Is this based on polls taken

in last couple of days?

[TruthIsAll]

9. National polls as of today; state polls as of yesterday

tia

[bobwryley]

8. Kerry Victory Strategy

The best strategy Kerry can have right now is to work his butt off trying to increase the Democratic Base turnout by 2%. You do this by targeting youth and minorities. You don't do it to the exclusion of everyone else, but this tactic has to be a strategy with real energy and resources devoted to it. A 2% gain of "no shows" to "actually voting" from this group would give him a decisive victory.

[kevin881]

10. 100% correct.

[Awsi Dooger]

13. Especially the black vote in swing states

In a 90/10 ratio, we net +80 among 100 voters. Contrast that to a 60/40 bracket, let's say single women, where it takes 400 voters to claim the same +80.

But this not really Kerry strategy or anything that can be pulled off prior to November 2. It screamed for priority one day post-SCOTUS in 2000.

And welcome to DU, bobwryley! ;)

[newyawker99]

14. Hi bobwryley!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Andromeda]

12. Keep bringing on those numbers, TIA...

I feel like we're in a war right here in the U.S. and it's almost as life-threatening. Instead of guns being fired off, it's words and those words are like a thousand knife cuts.

Kerry is still standing but he has been badly wounded because of all the attacks and lies about his character. The people responsible for the viciousness are getting away with it because they aren't suffering any consequences for it. Nobody is calling them on their b.s.

The media repeat Rethug talking points over and over again with no concern about the truth. Smear campaigns and destroying people is a hobby with the neo-conservatives and the media is complicit.

They want power at any cost and will do anything to keep it.

Notice how the neocons lash out when they ARE called on their lies? They don't like it one little bit!

They get people fired and ruin their reputations if they step out of line. Are they capable of murder too? I'll admit that's crossed my mind a time or two.

I do think it's dangerous to cross right-wing conservatives.

The media happily babbles on and on about Bush this and Bush that and they continue to talk about the Swift Boat Liars for Bush and how it's hurt Kerry -- NOT if it's true or not. Where's the balance?

Our way of life is under siege by the thugs running this country and we need to fight back with everything we've got.

The best way is to fight back is with the truth and all the number crunching you're doing with statistics and polls is greatly appreciated by me and I'm sure by everybody else.

Keep up the good work.

[ArkDem]

15. Well one thing is for CERTAIN, nobody can argue with these

numbers.

[cthrumatrix]

16. well.... last time I looked ...the "liberal media" argues with these #'s

the media has been disgusting