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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) |
TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Sep-07-04 08:56 AM Original message |
9/7 KERRY: 284 EV, 50.34% POPULAR VOTE, 71% WIN PROBABILITY |
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kevin881 (429 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Sep-07-04 09:00 AM Response to Original message |
1. yesterday you said he was at "rock bottom" |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Sep-07-04 09:15 AM Response to Reply #1 |
2. I guess my timing was wrong. I'm not a seer. But he WILL rebound. |
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nodictators (977 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Sep-07-04 09:55 AM Response to Original message |
3. TIA, drop the "win probability", keep the EV |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Sep-07-04 10:14 AM Response to Reply #3 |
5. The probability analysis is a key result of the model/simulation. |
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Poiuyt (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Sep-07-04 10:11 AM Response to Original message |
4. Hey TIA, could you put this in English for the non-mathematicians |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Sep-07-04 10:29 AM Response to Reply #4 |
6. Kerry is ahead. His average EV is 284 (for 5000 simulation trials). |
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cthrumatrix (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Sep-07-04 10:32 AM Response to Reply #6 |
7. great news..talking to people...Kerry is winning hands down |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Sep-07-04 01:13 PM Response to Original message |
8. National and state polls agree: less than one percent |
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seabeyond (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Sep-07-04 01:15 PM Response to Original message |
9. you said yestersday that 80% was the low |
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AndyTiedye (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Sep-07-04 08:08 PM Response to Original message |
10. With 50% of the Undecideds We Probably Lose, by your model |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Sep-07-04 08:29 PM Response to Reply #10 |
11. You are assuming that Kerry stays where he is now; he won't. |
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