So, going from 11 points ahead to 7 points ahead is "widening"?

[zbdent]

Okay, last week, Time said that Bush was leading Kerry (post convention bounce) by 11 points.

Today's "USA Today" says that Bush has "widened" his lead to 7 points.

Boy, the disinformation spin!!!

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-09-06-poll_x.htm

"President Bush widened his lead over John Kerry after a combative Republican National Convention reinforced questions about the Democratic candidate's leadership, especially on terrorism. (Related link: Poll results)

As the campaign enters its last eight weeks, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday shows Bush at 52%, Kerry at 45% and independent candidate Ralph Nader at 1% among likely voters. Before the convention, Bush led Kerry by 2 percentage points."

[Richardo]

1. My chocolate ration is up 67% - from 12 grams to 8!

[SEpatriot]

2. What it shows is:

1. The actual "bounce" was approximately 5 points, which when you apply a 3% margin of error is about 2 points, which can disappear faster than a pizza at a weight watchers convention.

2. That the Time poll is about as reliable as a screen door on a submarine.

3. That the media will parrot Karl Rove's talking points like Pravda in the old Soviet Union days spouting the party line.

[Frodo]

8. #2 & #3 are correct. #1 is not.

You can't say "apply the margin of error" as if it were an automatic correction in Kerry's favor.

Can the Bushies "apply" the 3pts to argue an 8-9 point lead?

[SEpatriot]

9. I'm being optimistic

kinda like old W. Seriously, what I'm saying is it's barely outside the margin of error, and therefore, negligible. Oh, and it will still easily fade.:7

[PCIntern]

3. thus widening it even futher...

soon when Bush is trailing by 6, it will be an insurmountable lead for him...

I have more than a few patients in the Fourht Estate...I chide them unmercifully here in Philly.

We're actually better here than some other municipalities in terms of 'objectivity' of local reporters reporting on the national scene - and we're exclusively Knight-ridder in Philly. Could be worse for us...at least Novak isn't from here...

[Frodo]

4. Polling firms report as if they were the only ones doing any polling.

That's why you can have one report talk about a "negative bounce" for Kerry while another reported (on the same day) a 2-3 point bounce for Kerry.

Gallup's last poll showed Bush up by 3pts and this one shows him up by 7 pts.

Thus he has "widened his lead".

In their defense, differing polling methodologies make comparisons like the one you made less than usefull.

[jackstraw45]

5. The Government must and WILL eventually BUST open the Corporate MEDIA

Mark my words.

[ArkDem]

6. The lead went from 3 to 7 in the poll they cite. You have to click on

the link.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm

[zbdent]

10. I just would love to hear the Repukes try to cite the USA Today

poll after hyping the Time poll.

"Hey, last week, Bush was ahead by 11 F---ING points! Now, he's ahead by 7 !!!"

[Nederland]

7. I think

that USA today calls it widening because it is higher than their previous poll. But perhaps I'm just stupid.

[jyund]

11. Poll numbers

I think the 10% was some other poll. Maybe Time or Newsweek.

They were comparing their most recent poll to their Aug 23 poll:

  Kerry Bush
2004 Sep 3-5 45 52 * 1 2
2004 Aug 23-25 47 50 -- 1 2

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm

I think the answer here is that you just can't rely on polls.
They might be skewed by the poll taker, or even USAtoday.

[ClassWarrior]

12. From an 11 point lead to 7???! Bush* is in FREEFALL!!!

Some Tom Petty, anyone?

[ClassWarrior]

15. From 11 to 7... to a DEAD HEAT TODAY!!

WOW!! That's really freefallin'!!

[jackstraw45]

13. EMAIL this around..ESPECIALLY to Republicans & "independents"

This NEEDS to be seen to BUST the myth of Kerry being on both sides of the issue.

[Teaser]

14. It is in "Stupid World!"

Stupid World, where yes is no, up is down, dogs love cats, and the media run everything...