Fuck individual polls like Zogby. The poll of polls has a sample of dozens of polls

[Quixote1818]

and is probably extremely close to the real number. Right now the RCP Poll of Polls has Obama close to 8 points ahead, which has increased from 6 points from the other day.

Lets also keep in mind that he continues to blow McCain out of the water in individual state polls. With the huge number of people doing early voting and Obama consistently being up 5 to 8 points in the polls, it is getting harder and harder for McCain to catch up.

If we go into election day with Obama up just 1 or 2 Nationally he will still probably win 300 EV. If he goes in with a five point lead he will probably take 350 or more EV's.

Personally, I think Zogby purposely vacillates his polls so his clients can say "Things are closing" about once a week which keeps people tuned in and the cash flowing. The pollsters know that what their numbers say on election day is what they will be judged on, and they can fuck around with the numbers until election day. I expect everyone to fall in line with the true numbers in the last 48 hours because they will want to be known as the pollster who nailed the race's real numbers.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

1. Also: National polls are not where it's at. VA. CO. MO. PA. FL. OH. MN. MI. WI. NH. IN. NC.

THAT is where it's at, along with the actual early voting, and we look fine in those.

[Richardo]

6. What he said.

National polls are worse than meaningless.

[Blondiegrrl]

2. I agree. I'm a polling addict, but I always consult the poll of polls

for what I consider to be the most accurate reading.

One poll by itself doesn't mean shit. And even if it did -- well, Obama is STILL up by 5 points.

[Quixote1818]

3. Doesn't it seem like Zogby swings back and forth every week?

It's like Obama get ahead by like 8 or 9 points then Zogby lets it swing back to 3, then it starts creeping up again. It's like a weekly thing and I think it is done on cue for his clients to keep people tuned in.

Most of the other pollsters seem really steady but Zogby is all over the fucking map.

[Blondiegrrl]

5. Yeah, it's really inconsistent.

I'll give Zogby the benefit of a doubt and say perhaps he's not deliberately skewing the results. But at the very least, it appears that their polling method is flawed.

[Stagecoach]

10. When it comes to Zogby

McCain seems to close in on weekends. Don't know why that is....and then by Wednesday or Thursday, Obama has stretched his lead again. We'll have to see if the pattern holds true this week.

[Kingofalldems]

4. Anyone know how Zogby did in 2004 and 2006?

[Bicoastal]

7. 2004? He thought Kerry would win.

'nuff said.

[Cush]

8. Zobgy in 04

http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/000155.php

ZOGBY CALLS IT FOR KERRY, 311-213-14

[Poseidan]

9. they should do it olympics style

Throw out the highest and lowest, average the rest.

[Quixote1818]

11. Good point. I agree. nt