Would voting early make Election Day exit polls lopsided for McCain?

[zulchzulu]

Someone just asked that question on Stephanie Miller's show.

I haven't voted yet and am pondering whether to vote early... personally I like the "democratic buzz" from voting on Election Day WITH the crowds. Voting on Election Day could also factor in exit polling, which will be reported before all polls close nationally.

Would voting early make Election Day exit polls lopsided for McCain since so many Obama supporters appear to have voted early?

[Zynx]

1. Does that actually matter?

[zulchzulu]

3. Imagine reporting from the Usual Suspects saying McCain is leading in exit polling...

I guess one could say it would make more Obama supporters come out to vote, while it could be argued that some Undecideds might want to "go with the winner" or are swayed by the reports...

[Zynx]

10. That doesn't usually come out until 7pm. It won't matter by then.

[marmar]

2. I don't know that enough people voted early to make that big a difference in exit polls.....

n/t

[stevenleser]

5. They are saying almost 1/3rd of voters will vote early

That sounds like enough to make a difference to me!

[mohc]

8. States like GA may well see half of their votes through early voting

And the splits seem to heavily favor the Democrats so far in early voting. My guess is if this trend continues, the polling organizations will have to do telephone polls of early voters on Monday night and weigh them in with the exit polls.

[tekisui]

11. 1 million have Early Voted in NC, with 6 days to go.

About 3.5 million voted in 2004.

[RoadRage]

4. It's a great question:

1. In some states, over 1,000,000 have (or will have) voted early - that is a large amount. Especially if early voters tend to lean twoards one candidate over another.

2. In certain area's, the pundits have based their predictions and calling of states on the exit polls. If they're showing 10% more going to McCain on the day of the election because most Obama voters voted early - will that impact it.

I know here in Nebraska, THOUSANDS are voting early.. I'm going to do it - and i've never done it before.

[Redbear]

6. Exit polls include early voting as a factor

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/too_much_early_voting_an_exit.php

[Chasing Dreams]

7. No. They supplement with thousands of phone calls to pick up absentee and other early voters.

Here's a link to Marc Ambinder, who knows what he is talking about.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/too_much_early_voting_an_exit.php

[stevenleser]

9. Hmm OK. Good question OP and good answer Mr or Ms Dreams!

Thank you to both of you

[Peacetrain]

12. My guess is that it probaly will... I know I voted last week..and they

let the party know if you have voted so you do not get anymore calls. Not how you voted of course, but if you are a registered party person they do inform that party your vote is in..

So it does not take a great leap of faith to think that pollsters could get that same info and not call people who have already voted