WSJ: Political Wisdom: Will Undecided Voters Abandon Obama?

[Doityourself]

Entertaining reading....we have a new term "Social Effect," so it is no longer the Bradley-Effect, eh..way to try to wash off the racism in their words!!

October 27, 2008, 6:04 am


From Bill Greener (Salon): <snip> "Despite what the polls seem to be saying, a closer look at the numbers shows that a Democratic victory is not a foregone conclusion. Why? Because if history is any guide, Barack Obama, as an African-American candidate for political office, needs to be polling consistently above 50 percent to win. And in crucial battleground states, he isn’t.” Obama needs to be above 50%, Greener writes, because history shows that voters who say they are undecided tend to break against an African-American candidate. “If you’re a black candidate running against a white candidate, what you see is what you get. And it doesn’t matter whether you’re an incumbent or a challenger. If you’re not polling above 50 percent, you should be worried. As of this writing, Barack Obama is not polling consistently above 50 percent in a number of electoral-vote-rich swing states, including Ohio and Florida. He should be worried.”


From Arnon A. Mishkin (Weekly Standard online) <snip> “McCain should win a larger share of undecided voters than Obama, but it has little to do with race.” Rather, he writes, if, after all of the buzz for Obama, and all of his campaign spending, “if voters are not ready to tell a pollster that they are with Obama, they are unlikely to get there.” Mishkin calls this “the ‘Social Effect.’ Where there is a perception that there is a ‘socially acceptable’ choice, respondents who do not articulate it, are likely not to agree with it. Are they lying? Or just genuinely torn about taking that route or another? I am not going to psychoanalyze what is going on in their heads, but in the end, the pattern tends to be that those undecided voters vote against that ‘socially acceptable’ choice.

More here:

http://blogs.wsj.com/politicalperceptions/2008/10/27/political-wisdom-will-undecided-voters-abandon-obama/

[Two Sheds]

1. the second guy writes for Kristol's Weekly Standard

that ought to tell you about his motivation (desperately trying to explain a possible McCain win). That being said, his theory is interesting. My own opinion is that McCain will claim most of the undecideds but it won't be nearly enough.

[casus belli]

2. Why is it always Barack that should be worried?

"Oh he's not winning enough, he should be worried." "This deal isn't sealed yet, Barack better watch his back."

What about McCain? The guy has been behind in every poll except for one brief period immediately following the GOP convention. Shouldn't he be the one worrying? This whole concept of Obama needing to be the one stressing doesn't make any sense.

[BumRushDaShow]

6. Exactly. Why is McKKKlan NOT polling "above 50%"?

Why is he perpetually stuck in the 40 - 45% range? Why aren't they asking THOSE questions?

The RW-biased lunatic-fringe M$M attributes racism to everyone else and refuses to look in the mirror.

[Cosmocat]

7. Seven months now of "Obama problems" ...

that has been the meme since it was clear he was most likley going to get the dem nomination - EVERY possible friggen way EVERY talking head on the MSM could say Obama and problem or trouble in the same sentence.

[Lost4words]

3. I believe that at this point there are no undecided voters!

8643

[Democat]

4. This "last hope" is why McCain and Palin are going full racist this week!

The right wing extremists want to remind Americans that this man really is a "scary black guy"! Don't forget, America, he's black black black. We're going to hear a lot of racism in the final days because that's all they have left.

[TheDoorbellRang]

5. Ha! Nate Silver cuts the BS out of this argument this AM

Title of his piece says it all: Bradley Effect? Or Elephant Effect?

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

[NYC_SKP]

8. Arnon A. Mishkin is a turdmuffin.

IMO, there most certainly is a self-consciousness for voters talking to pollsters.

I submit that a person unwilling to tell a pollster that they are with Obama will have no problem pulling the lever in the privacy of the voting booth.

He's a turdmuffin of the highest order.

Bleack!

[Sulawesi]

9. I have heard more than one analyst say that Barack has all the votes...

...he needs to win, and all he has to do is hold them. McCain has to take some from Obama to win...that would seem to be a direct contradiction to this article, even if the silly premise of the article - that all the undecideds vote for the white person - is accepted.

[scheming daemons]

10. On January 20th, 2009... we'll STILL be getting "Obama can't close the deal" headlines

They'll say that "only" 55% agree with his agenda and cabinet choices.... that Americans are "deeply divided" over whether Obama will make a good President.


Ignore it.


It's bullshit.

[budkin]

11. This guy will be beating his wife and kids on election night