It Is Not An 11 Point Race - by John Zogby

[Clinton Crusader]

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=859
Released: September 07, 2004
2004: It Is Not An 11 Point Race - by John Zogby


The Republican National Convention is over and score it a huge success for President George W. Bush. For one solid week he was on message and got Americans who watched to listen to the message he intends to carry in the fall campaign: leadership, decisiveness and success battling the war on terrorism. The convention actually followed another big week for Mr. Bush and equally dismal one for his opponent, Democratic Senator John Kerry.

Now the first polls are out. I have Mr. Bush leading by 2 points in the simple head-to-head match up - 46% to 44%. Add in the other minor candidates and it becomes a 3 point advantage for the President - 46% to 43%. This is no small achievement. The President was behind 50% to 43% in my mid-August poll and he essentially turned the race around by jumping 3 points as Mr. Kerry lost 7 points. Impressive by any standards.

For the first time in my polling this year, Mr. Bush lined up his Republican ducks in a row by receiving 90% support of his own party, went ahead among Independents, and now leads by double-digits among key groups like investors. Also for the first time the President now leads among Catholics. Mr. Kerry is on the ropes.

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:kick:

[lancdem]

1. Kerry fights back when his back is against the wall

and that's what we're seeing. A few days ago, Zogby himself said Bush's bounce would probably be gone in a week, and I believe it.

BTW, I think it's interesting that Bush's numbers fluctuated a lot less than Kerry's did. Kerry obviously had a horrible August, but an incumbent polling at 46 percent is not a shoo-in by any means.

[pmbryant]

2. Bush, the incumbent, is only at 46%

After a week in which he dominated the news.

I really don't understand how Zogby can describe that meager showing as implying that "Mr. Kerry is on the ropes." That's a huge stretch.

The fundamentals still point to a Bush defeat. He's the one on the ropes.

--Peter

[NewYorkerfromMass]

3. "Mr. Kerry is on the ropes"... Hey it works for me!

if it makes the 'pubs stay home!

[lancdem]

12. I think he said that because Bush went from being down

in every Zogby poll for months to finally being ahead. The bad news is Kerry lost control of the race, which Zogby had been saying was his to lose. The good news is a 2- or 3-point lead is hardly insurmountable.

[kstewart33]

15. lancdem you nailed it on the head

I respect Zogby's polling and his perspective. But Kerry's not on the ropes, not yet.

[a new day]

4. Looks like Bush is losing ground to me

Rasmussen
Updated Daily by Noon Eastern Election 2004

Date....Bush.Kerry
Today. 47.3 47.3
Sept 6 47.6 46.5
Sept 5 47.6 46.4
Sept 4 49.1 44.7
Sept 3 49.0 45
Sept 2 49.0 45
Sept 1 47.0 47
Aug 31 47.0 46
Aug 30 47.0 46
Aug 29 48.0 45

[HFishbine]

5. So much for all those republican

freinds, neighbors, co-workers and relatives who told us they wouldn't vote for Bush again.

[fishface]

7. congenital liars..just like their hero..nt

[lancdem]

10. Keep in mind this poll reflects Bush's peak

after a month of everything going his way and Kerry being on the defensive.

[Nederland]

6. Here's the key point:

I will save the detailed methodological discussion for another time. But I will remind readers that my polling has come closest to the final results in both 1996 and 2000.


Zogby has the record to backup his opinions, the other pollsters don't.

[DaveSZ]

8. He's the only pollster whose opinion I note

based on his record.

[deutsey]

9. Much to my chagrin during the primaries

I found Zogby was always right (Dean supporter here).

[Downtown Hound]

11. Thank you Mr. Zogby

Zogby has been the most accurate when it comes to phone polling. I still don't trust his interactive polls, but he does seem to hit the nail on the head most often with his phone methodology. In his last poll that gave Bush a 2% lead, there were still 9% undecided. That is great news for Kerry.

[lancdem]

13. Thank you for making that point about the undecided

[Seabiscuit]

17. So...

46% of Americans polled are either stupid or corrupt.

9% of Americans are *incredibly* stupid.

[kentuck]

14. That's about where he will end up....46%...

53% to 6% with 1% for Ralph and the others...At least, that's what I'm hoping. :)

[Downtown Hound]

16. That's right about what I've been predicting for months.

I really think we're going to win this.