Electoral Vote Question: Now McCain needs PA to win, but...

[Curtland1015]

...isn't it that he needs PA AND and couple of other states? Virginia and... what? I can't for the life of me remember the other one. Is it North Carolina?

Either way, my understanding is, even IF McCain takes PA, it's not guarantee that he'll win the election. Is that correct?

[melody]

1. I should never post anything while on allergy medication

Everyone else gave much better explanations. lol

[Dr. Death]

2. Yes he needs most of the battleground states

Go here:

http://qando.net/images/election.swf

And you can play with the numbers yourself.

:toast:

[aaaaaa5a]

3. Obama can actually win without...

Pennsylvania

Florida

and

Ohio


But McCain must win all of them or the night is over!

[LynneSin]

10. If Obama loses Pennsylvania he needs 16 electorial votes somewhere else

And that's with the assumption that Obama will win Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, states where McCain is pulling out his offices.

And the thing is, North Carolina OR Virginia will not be enough - we would have to win both. In fact we would have to win 2 out of 3 of these states PLUS the 3 states that McCain pulled his campaign out of (NM, CO & IA) - he would have to bring home the win in North Carolina, Virginia and Nevada.

I think we can win Nevada and hopefully we can win Virginia. But I'm still having a tough time thinking that Obama can win any of the Southern states even if he is polling well.

I'd rather we take home Pennsylvania. It will be a battleground in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh on election day.

[Higher Standard]

4. McCain has a very narrow path to victory

I guarantee there's a map in McCain headquarters right now that identifies one very specific series of states that are McCain's path to victory. If he loses even one of those states, he's finished.

[SidDithers]

5. McCain basically needs all the toss-up states...

AND the states that are leaning Obama. Obama is at 260 EV counting only states that are considered safe (leading by 10% or more).

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Sid

[Two Sheds]

6. technically, that is true but...

the PA polls have only gotten worse for McCain. And they won't get better. Stevens and the Skinheads will control the news cycle tomorrow.

[BzaDem]

7. If McCain wins PA, it is unlikely but possible that Obama will win.

Obama would need VA + CO just to make up for PA. Then he would need 5 more electoral votes (Nevada comes to mind). The problem is that if he loses PA, he probably isn't doing well enough nationally to win VA, CO and NV. But it is possible (especially if the reason Obama loses PA is because of McCain's campaign in PA, as opposed to a national "surge" for McCain of some sort).

The real amazing thing is that it is even possible for Obama to win without any of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. That was unimaginable months ago.

[LynneSin]

8. Ok here's the scenario

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

Use this calculator to play along if you like.

Start with change the states to the 2004 results. If the same results happened in 2008 it would be McCain 286, Obama 252.

NOW, McCain as all but conceded New Mexico, Colorado and Iowa - so change those seats over to Obama McCain is now 265 to Obama's 273 and we have an Obama presidency.

THat means McCain just needs to find 6 electorial votes to secure the win and a bit of buffer since a few other states might go red - hence the Pennsylvania strategy. Switch Pennsylvania over to McCain and you have McCain 286, Obama 252. That's a nice buffer that IF Obama picks up Virginia OR North Carolina - McCain still wins.

Now obviously this math doesn't include many other "if" factors like Ohio or Florida, but both of those states are still messed with their voting systems so we could still lose those states if only by corruption.

And Pennsylvania is an easy state to target. The state has only a 1-day voting period and there is a big red bulleye over Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Send your goons to those 2 targets and hassle the voters you could pull off a win.

So that's the scoop

[mohc]

9. If McCain wins PA he will probably win

Not because PA has so many electoral votes, but for McCain to be winning in PA he would have to be winning in a lot of other states hes losing in right now. States do not move completely independent of other states, if McCain improves in PA he will improve elsewhere. McCain's only real path to victory would require him to win every state he has at least a 5% chance of winning based on the analysis at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com. This would mean flipping NV, CO, MO, IN, OH, VA, NC, and FL, all of which Obama is currently leading in.

[kenziemom06]

11. I live in Philly's western suburbs...

and there is NO way Obama is losing PA  -- NO way.  The GOTV
effort is going to be insane and people are so excited and
ready to make history on 11/4!