Suffolk Nevada Poll: Obama 50(+5), McCain 40(-6)...All those Concerned can fuck off!!

[MadBadger]

http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/Nevada_Marginals_Oct_27_20081__2_.pdf

[still_one]

1. True, except we have to insure that the VOTES are counted /nt

[tekisui]

3. Settle down, read this:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7638275&mesg_id=7638275

[Smuckies]

2. I know we'll win Nevada.

[4_Legs_Good]

4. Nevada makes things easier

But my PA concern has to be justified, because Obama's writing asking for calls in PA. It's definitely McSame's last chance, and Obama's taking it seriously, or he wouldn't be there. He's playing it smart - not leaving anything to chance.

I think, though, that I prefer Carville's comments yesterday that McSame is really just hanging around and playing where he can IN CASE lightning strikes somehow, so he can be there with the jar to catch it.

I wish I weren't this nervous.

David

[azmouse]

6. Keep in mind that with just one week left Obama still has a pile of money to spend.

He should be defending PA and he can defend PA because of all that money.
No reason to hold back. PA could be a huge win coming early in the evening and would help to further demoralize McCain supports out west.

[thewiseguy]

5. YESSSSSSSSS!

[Alhena]

7. Nevada is all we need to tie, aka win in the Democratic House

Kerry states + Iowa + New Mexico + Nevada = electoral tie and Obama wins in the House of Reps.

[Smuckies]

9. Don't forget Tennessee, Georgia and Indiana

We will win them too.

[MadBadger]

10. No, we will not win Tennessee and likely not Georgia (though it is possible)

[Smuckies]

11. Why not?

Tennessee is a slim chance, but it's a wildcard. Why not GA?

[MadBadger]

13. Tennessee is not a wildcard, Georgia is more of a wildcard

The polls are about 5 points in McCain's favor in GA, but he still hasnt held a lead there.

In Tennessee, Obama is trailing by 15 points according to RCP, with the latest poll showing him down 16.

[MadBadger]

14. Tennessee is not a wildcard, Georgia is more of a wildcard

The polls are about 5 points in McCain's favor in GA, but he still hasnt held a lead there.

In Tennessee, Obama is trailing by 15 points according to RCP, with the latest poll showing him down 16.

[Smuckies]

20. Oh. I thought we had a chance to sneak in Tennessee and win by 5 points or so.

Maybe we will. For Georgia, that'll be tough, but I think Obama can pull it out.

[EastTennesseeDem]

22. Don't give up on us

It's not as bad as it seems. Rutherford, Davidson, and Shelby Counties will go Obama

[David__77]

35. Good point!

Wouldn't that be interesting???

[scheming daemons]

8. If we win Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia... we don't even need PA

[DrToast]

12. How funny would it be to lose PA and win the election?

Ahh...that joys of having all that money.

[hurtsolong]

18. Electoral-vote.com 10/28/08 have Obama 364 EVs

Electoral-vote, 10/28/08, has Obama at 364 EVs.
Now let's subtract the following states from the map:
364-11(IN)-20(OH)-21(PA)-15(NC)-27(FL)=270
Result from the subtraction, Obama is still going to WIN. If we can get CO and NV, we'll win. Currently, Obama looks pretty good in those two states as well as few of those being subtracted. I understand the polls are tightening, perhaps "rechecking time," but this mountain is just too huge and steep for McCain to climb over.

[Smuckies]

19. You are right. But, we will win PA by over 35 points.

[MadBadger]

26. And its all clear to me now

:eyes:

[Smuckies]

30. What is?

:9

[MadBadger]

31. 35 points in PA?

[Smuckies]

33. I definitely think so.

It sounds nuts, but Obama's support will pour in PA. I am happy to say that no matter what the exit polls show, Obama will win 65% of the vote.

:9

[MadBadger]

34. Nobody in their right mind believes that, Not even the Landslide Zealots on DU

Which I am one of.

[Smuckies]

37. I see......

Maybe 20 points is more doable. I just get excited. I also think we'll win Florida by 10 points or so. I think Obama will win every state (if it's not stolen/tainted with) except for Alabama, Mississippi, Alaska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska, West Virginia, Idaho, and Utah.

[SweetieD]

15. I early voted in Nevada for Obama. Nevada will go Obama! I am sure of it! I

[HughMoran]

16. Fuckin' A man!!!

Now this is a surprise - I like this number. Can I have some more? :rofl:

[endthewar]

17. Early voting in Nevada favors the Dems so much you can just call the election right now for NV

[Schulzz]

21. I will be concerned when you show me the polls which have McCain up in...

Colorado AND Iowa AND New Mexico AND Virginia AND Pennyslvania. Those are the most important states for Obama, in my opinion. All other battleground states (Obama is up in most other Battlegrounds, too) are not needed to win if he takes those. In fact, he just needs Colorado OR Virgina in addition to IA and NM.

VA Obama +7,3
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_mccain_vs_obama-551.html

CO Obama +6,2
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/co/colorado_mccain_vs_obama-546.html

PA Obama +10,8
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_mccain_vs_obama-244.html

IA Obama +11,4
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_mccain_vs_obama-209.html

NM Obama +8,4
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nm/new_mexico_mccain_vs_obama-448.html

So I'm pretty confindent that you won't find me concerned before election day....

[Jennicut]

23. Wow. We need NV so this is good news.

[MadBadger]

25. I mean, we actually dont, but its still good to see

IA, NM, and VA/CO will do

[Jennicut]

28. Yeah, that is true. It will just pad the EV then.

:)

[Hope And Change]

24. I like the headline of this thread.K & R!

[Bucky]

27. "All those concerned can fuck off." Geeze, shouldn't winning make you happy?

[MadBadger]

29. It is, but have you seen the Gallup Daily today make COncern trolls go wild?

[WI_DEM]

32. I know, you would think a 7-point lead nationally would be considered pretty good.

[Bucky]

38. I think there's too much judgmental attitudes going on around DU

I'm part of the problem, so I'm trying not to make this sound like a slam. But it seems like anyone who says they're worried about any aspect of the campaign gets attacked as "a concern troll"--calling into question their loyalty, their motives, possibly even implying they're a freeper's sock puppet, for nothing more than expressing their feeling that something funny might be going on.

I find that pretty bad manners, to attack people for speaking out about their feelings or worries. I tend to overreact to the harsh treatment by accusing those who volunteer themselves to police the "concerned" as naive, pollyannish, or head-in-sand thought police. That may not be helpful, but I don't like seeing sincere DUers being attacked for speaking their minds. It's the sort of emotional bullying I expect on a 7th graders' playground, not a community of activists.

It's not a huge problem, but it's a tiresome one to run into on their boards time and time again. I'd say that I'm slightly concerned, but "concern" seems to be a trigger word, so I won't say that--but I'm not pissed. I think there's too much emotional projection going on here and your OP in this thread seems to be an example of that. It's like you're daring anyone to say they have concerns that there will be efforts to steal the election. It's not a supportive way to communicate.

I wish you could express simple happiness with our ongoing success without resorting to emotional bludgeons.

[Sodan]

36. 50+ yeah!

[Arugula Latte]

39. Oh mah staahs!

*fans self*