Is the race tightening? Well, here's my analysis!

[aaaaaa5a]

Is the race really tightening?


Here are the objective facts based on the realclearpolitics.com “poll of polls” which is frequently used by CNN and in my view is the most accurate way to determine the status of a political race.



The numbers of the race based on National and battle-ground state polling one week ago (10/21/08) and today (10/28/08).
The first number is the Obama/McCain lead one week ago. The second number is where the current lead stands, and the last number is the net gain/loss.


………………………10/21/08……………Today 10/28/08……………Change

Nevada…………. Obama +2.3 ….. Obama +4.6 ….. ……………+2.3

Pennsylvania…. Obama +11.4 …. Obama +9.8 ……………………-1.6

Virginia……………Obama +8.0……. Obama +7.3 ………………….....-0.7

Missouri………….Obama +2.7 ……. Obama +.6 ………………………-2.1

Ohio……………….Obama +2.8…….. Obama +6.4……………………. +3.6

Colorado………. Obama+5.4……… Obama+7.0………………………+1.6

N.Hampshire… Obama+9.4……….Obama+11.2……………………+1.8

Florida…………..Obama+2.0……….Obama+3.3………………………+1.3

N. Carolina……..Obama+1.5……….Obama+1.5……………………….0.0

Indiana…………..McCain+3.8……… Obama+1.4………………………+5.2




National Poll Average…. Obama +7.2 (10/21)….. Obama+6.7(10/28)…. Net -0.5




Looking at the numbers, despite the media story that the race is closing, Obama’s lead has actually increased in 6 of the 10 battleground states compared to a week ago. He lost ground in 3, with North Carolina unchanged.


It’s also interesting that the largest net increases in state polling all benefited Obama. He flipped Indiana (+5.2) and increased his lead in the crucial state of Ohio by an average of 3.6 polling points with under a week to go.



Despite the heavy campaigning all week by McCain in Pennsylvania, he chipped away just 1.6 points off of Obama’s 11.4 average polling lead of a week ago. And again there is only 6 days left.




Finally, despite the narrative that the National polls are tightening, Obama’s average lead in the National polls is only 0.5 points lower than what it was last week. In case you’re wondering, if one more decent National poll (CBS, Marist etc.) had come out today giving Obama a good number, his National poll average would actually be LARGER than it was a week ago.

[mtnsnake]

1. Good stuff. Thanks!

[suston96]

2. You need to change the Today date at the top of that column......nt

[aaaaaa5a]

3. I changed it! Thanks n/t

[Jackpine Radical]

4. Tightening? I'll tellya what's tightening.

Republican assholes, that's what's tightening.

[Kaylee]

5. OMG! That picture is just.....*speechless*

Of course it's going on my hard drive for use later!:rofl:

[Dawgs]

6. Nice; especially Ohio.

:hi: