Obama Leads by 19 Among Those Who Have Already Voted (Pew)

[struggle4progress]

October 28, 2008
McCain Support Continues Downward Spiral
Obama Leads by 19 Among Those Who Have Already Voted

Barack Obama leads John McCain by a 52% to 36% margin in Pew’s latest nationwide survey of 1,325 registered voters. This is the fourth consecutive survey that has found support for the Republican candidate edging down. In contrast, since early October weekly Pew surveys have shown about the same number of respondents saying they back Obama. When the sample is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to 38%.

A breakdown of voting intentions by demographic groups shows that since mid- September, McCain’s support has declined significantly across most voting blocs. Currently, McCain holds a statistically significant advantage only among white evangelical Protestants (aside from Republicans). In addition, Obama runs nearly even with McCain in the so-called red states, all of which George W. Bush won in 2004.

Just as ominous for the Republican candidate, Obama holds a 53% to 34% lead among the sizable minority of voters (15%) who say they have already voted. Among those who plan to vote early but have not yet voted (16% of voters), 56% support Obama, while 37% support McCain ...

http://people-press.org/report/465/mccain-support-declines

Let's cut them off at the pass, boys & girls

[dennis4868]

1. Olberman...

showed the Hotline poll that had Obama up by only one point among people who have already voted (48-47)

[bigdarryl]

2. Pew was dead on in 04 with there final polling Oct.31 2004

even more accurate than Zogby who had Kerry winning the popular vote. Allan Lichtman predicted Bush would win the popular vote months in advance because he was only had 4 keys negative against him as to this year the rethug party is down 8 keys Licthman predicts an Obama popular vote win.

[Joanne98]

3. "significant advantage only among white evangelical Protestants "

The white fundie problem!

[Essene]

4. it's weak support and not the same religious-right of yesteryear

Look at those figures compared to 2000 and 2004

http://pewforum.org/docs/?DocID=322

It's almost exactly the same. 25% or so going with the democrat.

There was recently a survey that indicated only like 29% of Mccain supporters felt "very strongly" about their support. I suspect that it's the fundies who make up a big chunk of that, because i think it's that general population that's most committed to the character distortions of Obama. Nonetheless, Palin is a pentecostal and that's way outside of mainstream evangelical thinking. So, this group is more anti-Obama than pro-Mccain/Palin.

Also let's look at the Pew survey from earlier in the year that discussed shifts in religious attitudes about politics

http://pewforum.org/docs/?DocID=334







See?

The religious-right may still generally be swinging republican, but their attitudes are changing and the support is becoming soft.