Dick(less) Morris: Obama might still have a small chance to win -- "don't write Obama off."

[jefferson_dem]

Glenn Greenwald
Wednesday Oct. 29, 2008 06:20 EDT
Dick Morris: Obama might still have a small chance to win

A new AP/GfK poll today of 8 swing states shows Obama leading in all 8 of them -- 6 of them by wide margins (CO, NV, NH, OH, PA, VA) and 2 by small margins (FL, NC). The RCP average of all polls shows Obama with a national lead of 6.8%, roughly what it has been for weeks, and also shows Obama with a lead in every swing state. And FiveThirtyEight's model currently estimates that Obama's probability of winning is 96.2%, while McCain's is 3.8%.

But Fox News political strategist/genius Dick Morris this morning has a message for Obama supporters: while things obviously look extremely bleak for your candidate right now, there is still a small chance that, if everything goes absolutely perfectly for Obama, he still might be able to eke out a narrow victory:

As Obama has oscillated, moving somewhat above or somewhat below 50 percent in all the October polls, his election likely hangs in the balance . . . Likely a disproportionate number of the undecideds will vote for McCain.

But don't write Obama off. His candidacy strikes such enthusiasm among young and minority voters that there is still a chance that a massive turnout will deliver the race to the Democrats.

It certainly may be true, as Morris argues, that the bulk of undecided voters will vote for McCain. It also may be true (or it may not be) that such an event will be worth a point or modestly more for McCain. And while I view polls as generally reliable -- because they've proven to be -- they're not an infallible science, rendering reasonable the admonition that the outcome is still uncertain.

Still, it's just staggering to ponder the amount of reality-denial (or deliberate reality-distortion) needed to urge that Obama, though a real long shot, shouldn't be "written off," because there's still a small chance that he might pull it out. It also enables Morris to claim victory either way -- heroically so if McCain wins ("I predicted undecideds would break for him") and also if Obama wins ("I warned that he shouldn't be written off"). To a Fox News viewer, that comes from the most insightful and prescient political observer in the country.

http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2008/10/29/morris/index.html

[Vinca]

1. Morris must have taken to licking frogs instead of toes. nt

[bluerum]

2. I love the smell of desperate hyperbole in the morning.

Undecideds Should Break for McCain (The moRRan dICk article)

:evilgrin: It smells like - victory! :evilgrin:


on edit: added the link to the Morris article,,,

[No Elephants]

3. Trying to provide cover for fraud and vote suppression, Morris Head?

[book_worm]

4. I agree with one thing--it does appear that a disportionate amount of low-interest

(stupid) undecided voters are going to McCain because they haven't followed the election up to now.

[bushisanidiot]

5. More evidence that repukes simply DON'T live in reality.

their leader, McHate is encouraging them to be as dimwitted as he is.. and they are following his orders, no questions asked.

morons.

[tekisui]

6. Where is that dick morris map?

The one that has AR, and TN a toss-up, with Obama running the board?

[Enrique]

7. trying to salvage some credibility?

don't even bother, Dick. :rofl:

[Ikonoklast]

8. Toe Sucker is a turd that just won't flush

Why on Earth anyone would ever listen to that shitstain I'll never know. Just what have his sucesses been, lately? His uncanny predictions that came true?

He's been wrong on just about everything for the last ten years.

[jedr]

9. He's right!

Tens of thousands of votes for Obama will not be counted. Bush never won an election but served two terms. We need a landslide to win.