Pa. Poll Shows Obama Extending Lead Over McCain

[BigD_95]

http://www.wgal.com/politics/17823117/detail.html


Pa. Poll Shows Obama Extending Lead Over McCain

Nearly Half Of Respondents Cite Economy As Biggest Issue

UPDATED: 6:27 am EDT October 29, 2008

LANCASTER, Pa. -- Sen. Barack Obama holds a double-digit lead over Sen. John McCain among Pennsylvania voters in the latest Franklin and Marshall College Poll.
The poll shows Obama holding a 53 percent to 40 percent lead among likely voters in the state. Two percent are undecided and 1 percent would vote for another candidate.
Among registered voters, Obama leads 51 percent to 39 percent, with 9 percent undecided.

The sample error for registered voters is +/- 3.5 percent and for likely voters +/- 4.2 percent, according to the pollster.
The poll's key findings, details regarding methodology and a link to the complete poll can be found below.
Key Findings

arack Obama leads John McCain by thirteen points (53% to 40%) among likely voters in Pennsylvania, while two percent are undecided and one percent would vote for another candidate. Among registered voters Obama leads McCain by twelve points (51% to 39%) with nine percent undecided.
When considering registered voters Obama holds a sizeable lead among women (53% to 35%), younger residents (61% to 31%), non-whites (91% to 7%), college graduates (54% to 38%), and residents of Philadelphia (75% to 19%). McCain has an advantage among Protestants (46% to 42%), fundamentalist Christians (56% to 34%), and residents in Southwestern Pennsylvania (50% to 42%). Obama holds an advantage among independents (45% to 31%).
A substantial majority (81%) of registered Pennsylvanians believe the country is off on the wrong track, and two in five (44%) say they are worse off financially this year than last. Obama is the choice of those who say the country is off on the wrong track (58% to 31%), while McCain has substantial support from those who say the country is moving in the right direction (78% to 15%). Obama leads among those who say their personal finances are worse off compared to last year (64% to 24%), and McCain does well among those whose personal finances are better than last year (56% to 38%).
Almost half (47%) of registered Pennsylvanians cite the economy as the most important issue in their vote for president. Only 18 percent of registered Pennsylvanians indicate that President Bush is doing an excellent (2%) or good job (16%), while 81 percent say he is doing only a fair (27%) or poor job (54%). Half of respondents believe that McCain will mostly continue Bush’s economic policies (51%) and a large majority believes he will continue his foreign policies (62%). About half (52%) of respondents say they would be concerned if McCain was elected president, mostly because of his views on policy issues (45%) and the perception that he will carry on the policies of the Bush administration (30%). About half (51%) of respondents also say they would be concerned if Obama was elected president, mostly because of his inexperience (37%) and views on policy issues (36%).
Both candidates perform about the same among their own party's likely voters. McCain draws 80 percent of Republicans while Obama carries 85 percent of Democrats, but Obama has opened up a large lead among independents (49% to 37%).
These results and the attached analyses are based on the results of interviews conducted October 21-26, 2008. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College under the direction of the poll’s Director, Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Head Methodologist, Berwood Yost, and Project Manager, Brad Nankerville. The data included in this release represent the responses of 790 registered Pennsylvanians (555 likely voters). Telephone numbers for the survey were generated using random digit dialing, and respondents were randomly selected from within each household. Survey results were weighted to adjust for different selection probabilities and non-response. The sample error for registered voters is +/- 3.5 percent and for likely voters +/- 4.2 percent.
Read The Complete Poll Here (Please note that the link connects to a PDF file. If you cannot view it, you may need to download Adobe Reader. For a free version of Adobe, click here.)

[Thrill]

1. How can all these PA polls be wrong? By such healthy margins

I think Rendell just wants turnout to huge

[Tarheel_Dem]

2. That's what I wondered also. Rendell sounded fairly pessimistic last

night on Rachel's show. Perhaps you're right, he's just shooting for a huge turnout. :shrug:

[bkinsd]

5. I think you just nailed it perfectly

He doesn't want the voters of PA to get complacent. So, he is putting on his serious face about how close the race is - even when it isn't.

[InNeedOfUserName]

3. They were fairly accurate in 2004 ...

Franklin & Marshall College Poll
(formerly the Keystone Poll):


October 26, 2004
Monday shows Kerry in front of Bush by 49 percent to 44 percent.

Final Result Kerry by 2.36%

[dugaresa]

4. perhaps the ugly campaigning is turning off voters

perhaps the dumbest VP pick ever has some folks turned off

perhaps people are thinking about the past 20+years of trickle down bullshit and they want to try something different?

perhaps stealing Obama signs has made some folks leaning McCain thinking...."what kind of douche steals someone's sign"

perhaps them calling every democrat asking them to volunteer for McCain has folks thinking..."this guy is desparate...he is calling democrats"