Do I Have This Right ?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Even if the race tightened Obama has put a lot of votes in the "bank" because he had a five to ten point lead when people in many states were voting early...Even if McSame pulls even on Tuesday it will not be enough...

[Terran]

1. That would depend on whether pollsters include

people who have already voted, or not. If they exclude those who have already voted, then what you're saying woud be right, I'd think.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. That Is A Good Point

~

[Mass]

5. They include people who have already voted.

[Terran]

6. I figured they probably do

That being the case, there is no 'banking' effect or early voters--early voting would have no effect, other than possibly reducing the numbers of undecided voters.

[high density]

3. What the national polls say don't matter

I don't know where this supposed swing to McSame is coming from, but it's not being shown in the state-to-state polling. Obama is making races competitive that everybody thought were safe for McCain a few months ago.

[Schulzz]

4. Obama leads outside the margin of error in VA, OH, CO, NM, IA .

McCain would have to win VA,CO and OH and all the closer battleground states (FL, NC, MO, IN). Or PA, where Obama is still ahead by double-digits-in the polling average.
Obama just needs IA, NM, CO or VA and hold his lead in PA.