Dick Morris: Don't Write Obama Off. He Could Still Win.

[BurtWorm]

:crazy:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/undecideds_should_break_for_mc.html

...

At the beginning of this contest, Obama effectively made the case that the election was a referendum on Bush's performance in office. Painting a vote for McCain as a desire for "four more years of the same failed policies," he made the most of Bush's dismal approval rating. Had he been able to keep the focus on Bush, he would likely have inherited most of the undecided vote.

But as Obama surged into a more or less permanent lead in October, animated by the financial crisis, he has assumed many of the characteristics of an incumbent. Every voter asks himself one question before he or she casts a ballot: Do I want to vote for Obama? His uniqueness, charisma and assertive program have so dominated the dialogue that the election is now a referendum on Obama.

As Obama has oscillated, moving somewhat above or somewhat below 50 percent in all the October polls, his election likely hangs in the balance. If he falls short of 50 percent in these circumstances, a majority of the voters can be said to have rejected him. Likely a disproportionate number of the undecideds will vote for McCain.

But don't write Obama off. His candidacy strikes such enthusiasm among young and minority voters that there is still a chance that a massive turnout will deliver the race to the Democrats. None of the polling organizations has any experience with -- or model for -- so massive a turnout, especially among voters notorious for staying at home. But the primaries proved that these young and minority voters will not stay home this time, but will vote for Obama. The effect of this increased vote is hard to calculate, but it may be enough to offset the undecideds who will vote for McCain.

But the basic point, one week before Election Day, is that even if Obama clings to a four- or five-point lead over McCain in the polling, the election is not over. The question is not so much how large his lead is over the Republican, but whether or not he is topping 50 percent. As long as the polling leaves him below that mark, he is vulnerable and could well lose.

...

[rucky]

1. He gets paid for this?

[BurtWorm]

5. Whose toes did he have to suck to get where he is now?

:patriot:

[rucky]

7. Marv Albert's?

[DrDan]

2. so . . . . he might, ya know

:toast:

[nichomachus]

3. Translation: We're trying hard to steal this one, but we're not sure we can pull it off

[samplegirl]

4. That toe sucking

perv.

[Schulzz]

6. If you have seen his electoral maps in the past, you know this guy is clueless.

He always has the strangest maps ever, states where Obama is down 10 solid blue, battleground states red etc.

[BurtWorm]

8. Does he just poll hookers or something?

"The last ten tricks I turned--all McCain guys."

[EstimatedProphet]

9. Obama is leading by 9-12 points in multiple polls, AND HE COULD STILL WIN?!?

What is this crazy world? Take me back to the world where everything makes sense, and up is down, black is white, right is left!

[vanderBeth]

10. Yeah, he might.

:crazy:

[Chiyo-chichi]

11. This asshat is largely responsible for bringing us Sarah Palin...

along with fellow asshats Bill Kristol, John Bolton, Robert Bork, Fred Barnes...

and Morris is THE one who counseled her to hold on to her "mavericky outsider cred."

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/10/27/081027fa_fact_mayer

[Two Sheds]

12. translation: only white voters count. If Obama fails to reach 50%

his election will be illegitimate because it will prove he was not supported by actual American voters.

further translation: The election is over. My (Morris') focusing on national polls and percentages means there is no way in God's green earth that McCain can win the Electoral College.

further further translation (from me, not from Morris): Vote. Every single vote for Obama counts. It doesn't matter if you live in Illinois and you know Obama will win your state; it doesn't matter if you live in Alabama and you know McCain will win your state. The GOP might just be conceding this election's result but they won't concede power unless it is proven to them that they are rejected. They now define rejection by the popular vote. Vote, then.

[onefreespiritedchick]

13. I'm so glad I need Dick Morris to clarify things for me . NOT!

:crazy:

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

14. It's amazing that Bill Clinton actually took this toe sucker's advice on anything.

[Dr. Death]

15. Great example of how NOT to use logic:

"If he falls short of 50 percent in these circumstances, a majority of the voters can be said to have rejected him. Likely a disproportionate number of the undecideds will vote for McCain.

So:

Obama < 50% = a majority of voters have rejected him
Therefore, more undecideds will vote McCain.

But using the exact same logic:

If McCain is < 50% = a majority of voters have rejected him
Therefore, more undecideds will vote Obama.

Since McCain is farther below 50%, shouldn't more undecideds therefore go for Obama?

Nice try, Dickie boy. Thanks for playing.

[Schulzz]

16. Don't write Dick Morris off, he might still have a brain! nt

[UndertheOcean]

17. ya think