From the WSJ - Zogby poll of battleground states for Sept. 7

[question everything]

St - Bush - Kerry
AR - 47.6 - 45.9
FL - 49.1 - 49.4
IA - 46.9 - 50.6
MI - 45.4 - 52.0
MN - 43.5 - 50.3
MO - 48.5 - 48.9
NV - 46.8 - 47.4
NH - 44.8 - 49.5
NM - 43.9 - 53.6
OH - 53.8 - 42.9
OR - 43.1 - 52.8
PA - 46.7 - 49.5
TN - 53.2 - 43.6
WA - 44.2 - 52.7
WV - 49.1 - 40.1
WI - 47.5 - 49.9

Kerry "lost" AK and TN since last poll - Aug 23

[ChoralScholar]

1. I hope Kerry wins Arkansas

I'm still seeing way more Bush/Cheney signs than Kerry/Edwards signs, though. Not promising.

[osaMABUSh]

14. Don't worry about the W signs

I'm in PA and I'm starting to see Bush/Cheney signs sprout up like mushrooms yet Kerry leads this state.

I just think the repukes are more organized and have more money when it comes to signs and bumper stickers. Think about the millions of middle and low income folks who are going to vote for Kerry - do you think they have a spare nickel to buy a Kerry sign? Or the information to know where or how to get one?

Plus, frankly, I'm little miffed at the Kerry campaign for not automaticlly sending out signs and bumper stickers to everyone who gave them $50 or more. If you are donating money to the cause you damn well would be happy to display a little support.

Also, I find the Bush supporters a bit obnoxious and more apt to display a political sign than the average Dem. When some of my repuke 'friends and neighbors' saw my Kerry bumper sticker they were actually shocked that anybody in this middle to upper middle class suburb was not supporting Bush.

My Dad who is a life long Dem and contributes to the DNC all the time does not wear a button or bumper sticker even though I gave them to him. It is somewhat of a modesty thing - my Dad doesn't want to be flashy. His generation speaks in the voting booth not with signs or slogans.

[sandnsea]

28. My son got 50

They started sending out bumper stickers with donations in June I think. Anyway, my son got his 50 for donating $50 a few weeks ago. Everybody who contributed to the Kerry campaign also got a campaign packet which included 2 bumper stickers, a window sign, and a button I think, back in April or May. So they did try to send out some free items, just wanting to make sure it goes to supporters I guess.

[Joe Momma]

29. we will carry....

Arkansas!

[TruthIsAll]

31. The new Zogby polls are now in the TIA Election model!

Even with disappointing results in TN, OH, WV, Kerry has picked up support in other states so that he now has an 86% win probability (with an average 294 electoral votes) over 5000 simulated election trials.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[wtmusic]

2. What the hell happened to Ohio?

One month ago Kerry was up 10%

[hippiegranny]

4. yeah, anyway!

i was just about to post the same comment. we were winning ohio! what happened there?

[WMliberal]

8. kerry did take a month off from ads and spending in general

i bet those go up once the dollars start rolling back in.

[Guaranteed]

6. Those are some odd-looking numbers.

They look like the 2000 election, is what they look like.

[Awsi Dooger]

10. Don't we wish

A pickup of Missouri, Nevada and New Hampshire. Two more than Al needed.

Otherwise, agreed. Many of the percentages resemble 2000.

On edit: not to mention Florida, which looks eerily similar to what should have been

[question everything]

21. Better than 2000

Here is what the text of the poll says:

Despite Mr. Bush's stronger showing, he still has a way to go. If all the states -- even those within the margin of error -- were to go to the current leading candidates, and the other 34 states go as they did in the 2000 election, Mr. Bush would get 231 electoral votes and Mr. Kerry would get 307.

[deadparrot]

3. Arizona's inching closer and closer! n/t

[Guaranteed]

7. I think that's Arkansas.

Arizona's AZ.

[Doctor_J]

5. I think the "bounce" from the

Festival Of Hate & Lies can now officially be called "measly". I am surprised by the OH numbers though

[BillZBubb]

9. Ohio is the biggest disappointment.

I'm not sure what's wrong with those people. West Virginia is another puzzle too. It's a poor state that is voting for a guy who sweeps the poor into the gutter. Chickens for Colonel Sanders syndrome.

Tennessee isn't a surprise. Not much chance Kerry would win there anyway.

[Thrill]

12. Gay marriage

has the conservatives in Ohio scared shitless. They could careless about their economy

[LisaL]

13. Polls are not perfect

Far from it.
Last election, Gore quit campaigning in OH because of polls showing he was way behind Bush. Even without any commercials, Gore ended up only 3.6 % behind Bush.
I would definitely not give up on OH.

[Guaranteed]

15. If Ohio doesn't go Kerry

we're going to have to start making up jokes about Ohioans.

[Philostopher]

17. We've been hammered with B/C ads 24/7 in Ohio.

Radio, TV, you name it. I think, too, that a lot of people aren't being polled in Ohio -- people who use caller I.D. and don't talk to anyone they don't know (Mr. Nownow and me, for instance), people who didn't register until this year, that kind of thing. Bush may not be ahead by the gap the polls are showing, though he'll probably take Ohio for the reasons below.

Bottom line is, they've been hammering Ohio with negative ads, and most of the 'talk radio' here is hate radio. Even the local bloviators are Bush* cheerleaders. Hell, even the sportscasters make fun of Kerry.

Most of the stations are Clear Channel affiliates, which have a Republican subtext (all the jokes on the morning shows are making fun of academics, liberals, feminists -- you get the picture).

Money talks, and Republicans bloody well own just about everything here. They own all the information outlets.

I read in the paper this morning that out of 180,000 new voters registered in recent months, 100,000 of the registrations were thrown out due to clerical errors. Whether this is the fault of the registration advocates or the people filling out the registration cards, I don't know -- I do know that if it keeps up, new voters won't matter because they won't be allowed to vote if they're not registered properly.

[hansolsen]

23. Apparently Ohio is Zell Miller country.

[MO_Dem]

11. Looks like still a chance for us

to win in MO--hope our numbers creep upwards from here.

[WI_DEM]

16. Don't believe for one minute that Bush is 10 points up in Ohio

Kerry wouldn't be working Ohio as hard as he is if that were the case.

[question everything]

22. Previous data for Ohio

Date - Bush - Kerry

8/23 - 51.4 - 45.8
8/2 - 51.1 - 46.1
7/26 - 48.1 - 46.8
7/12 - 47.9 - 48.6
6/21 - 50.5 - 45.1
6/2 - 49.1 - 46.3

Thus, at least by this poll, OH has been in the Bush camp most of the time.

Still, previous polls showed MO, and NM, and NV, FL and MI in the Bush camp, so all in all I think we should be happy with this poll and it is, after all, only one poll taking a snapshot of one point in time.

[in_cog_ni_to]

18. Damn...LOOK at Ohio!

What the hell is wrong? Hasn't Ohio been suffering from a huge loss of jobs??? Don't they understand that the chimp is NOT going to help them? They would rather stop 2 people of the same sex from marrying than have a job and feed their families???!!! What is more important? What affects THEIR lives directly?

I give up. The people in this country are so fucking stooopid.

[nicktom]

19. Is this poll the interactive computer poll? n/t.

[question everything]

20. Yes, I think so

Methodology
This poll was conducted by Zogby International, which has been running online polls since 1998. Zogby has assembled a database of individuals who have registered to take part in online polls through solicitations on the company's Web site as well as other Web sites that span the political spectrum. Individuals who register are asked to furnish personal information such as home state, age and political party to Zogby, which in turn examines that data and contacts individuals by telephone to confirm that it is valid.

For each Battleground States poll, Zogby is telephoning about 2% of respondents who complete the interactive survey, to validate their personal data. To solicit participation, Zogby sends e-mails to individuals who have asked to join its online-polling database, inviting them to complete an interactive poll. Many individuals who have participated in Zogby's telephone surveys also have submitted e-mail addresses so they may take part in online polls. Zogby International President John Zogby says 15% of the company's U.S. database of online-poll participants are "regulars," who take part in half of the interactive polls the company conducts; the balance of the names of respondents in the database change frequently. Those polled are asked, "If the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote: Republican George W. Bush, Democrat John Kerry or independent Ralph Nader?"

[Gloria]

24. I wonder when this was done? I was getting a rash of Zogby polling in some

cases, only a few days apart....but nothing in the last week....

[question everything]

25. The latest poll was conducted Aug. 30-Sept. 3, n/t

[usregimechange]

26. TN and OH Bad news but not too bad. nt

[JCMach1]

27. THe OH number looks a little off... should be closer than that...

[Demi_Babe]

30. play around with this electoral flash

Kerry keeps coming up a winner in many different scenarios.

Kerry is going to win!!!

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/election-test-fl,0,1851284.flash