Just a thought about the polls tightening

[Hellataz]

I keep hearing abut the polls tightening, and while i don't put too much stock in polls, given that pollsters are dealing with the complications like unknown numbers of new youth and minority voters, I know a lot of people do freak out when seeing the polls fluctuate all the time.

So I had a thought...
I don't know a whole lot about how people gather their polling info, but Is it possible that as more and more democrats turn out for early voting, the less and less they are responding or even being asked in new polls? So basically pollsters are gather info from a pool of "not yet voted" voters and the majority of them are Republicans or undecided, so it would reflect in the polling numbers as a misleading advantage for McCain.

I think if Pollsters aren't including voters in their polls that have already voted, their numbers are bound to be askew.
But it's just a thought.

[melody]

1. The polls aren't tightening

In fact, I do believe Zogby and Gallup expanded in the last polling.

Come to think of it, Arizona, Louisiana, Georgia and heaven knows what other state have tightened ... against McCain. :)

[Hellataz]

4. I don't think the polls are right but they are advertising the polls tightening

All I'm saying is that the reason they are showing a FALSE tightening could be that pollsters aren't accounting for all the early votes that have been cast for Obama.

[GrizzlyMan]

2. I'm relying on gut instinct

Which was right on the money in 1992, 2000, 2002, 2004 and 2006.

About a month ago I zeroed in on Indiana to tell me how this would go. If Obama kept in play, which he has, he will win the EC handidly even if he doesn't win Indiana. What I didn't account for is the closeness of Arizona which further demonstrates there's something out there that the polls aren't completely capturing.

I just have this feeling what happens Tuesday will be quite shocking for Repukes and not in a good way.

[abumbyanyothername]

3. They include already voteds

and Obama is winning this line by around 20 points, generally.

Hotline is outside this margin, but no one has been able to explain to me WHY it is so FAR (=/-1) outside the others.

[quakerboy]

5. I keep hearing about the polls tightening

and yet they all look the same from day to day. Minor fluctuations. One poll tightens, another has Obama opening up the lead. Then 3 days later, they swap. The polls tightening is like dogma, everyone knows it is happening and will happen, and damn what our lying eyes see.

[GalleryGod]

6. Didn't stop Bill McKay in 1972!

[Proud Liberal Dem]

7. And yet despite whatever polls are being used to make the case

that the race is "tightening" Obama STILL comes out ahead. Aside from a few state polls that show McCain and Obama tied or with McCain slightly leading (ALL of them in "toss-up" states mind you), Obama is STILL WAAAAAAAAAAAAY ahead of where John McCain needs to be in order to win in the electoral college (the only place that actually counts) and he has so many more paths to victory that unless McCain manages to "run the tables" in nearly every "toss up" state (and maybe even THAT won't be enough since there are now so many such states- all of them previously considered "safe" red states), the numbers just don't add up for him. To use a plumbing (paging JTP) metaphor, the electoral map has sprung so many "red" leaks for McCain/Palin that there does not appear to be any probable way that they can plug them all unless Obama/Biden does something so crazy and so monumentally stupid (I'm talking about something that people will study in history books alongside all of McCain/Palin's blunders) that makes McCain/Palin look like the "safe choice" and, my friends, I just don't see anything like that happening. What does it say about a candidate who, without campaigning in nor (presumably) spending more than normal campaign operating money, manages to throw several previously "red" states, including his opponent's home state, into the "toss-up" column? Also, it should also be pointed out that Obama is firmly in command of EVERY "blue" state Kerry won in 2004 and the only state that Kerry won in 2004 that McCain/Palin have invested much of their time and resources in is Pennsylvania, which, based on all of the polling data and despite all of McCain/Palin's campaigning and smearing, still appears to be safely out of their reach.

[Window]

8. I'm in total agreement with you. Good post.

:thumbsup: