NC Early Voting Numbers--We are going to win here!

[tekisui]

WOW!

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

52% of 2004 voting numbers have already voted this election. 1,847,860, and counting until Saturday, when early voting ends, with extended hours.

In 2004, 3,552,449, voted in the Presidential Election.

Here are the Early Voter numbers by Party, and the results of 2004.

2008 2004
Party

Dem
53.3% 48.6%
Rep
29.2% 37.4%
None
17.6% 14.1%

Assuming Dems voted for Obama, and assuming the turnout will be the same as 2004(I think it will be considerably higher, and I think that will advantage Obama), Obama has 53.3% of 52% of the vote, at the least.

If we give him no Independents, he needs 48% of the Election Day voters to win NC. Give him all of the Indys, he needs only 29% of the Election Day votes.

Split the Indys down the middle, Obama needs only 39% of the Election Day votes to win NC.

He needs 29%(all Indys)-39%(half the Indys)-48%(no Indys)of Election Day votes to win NC!

NC is going Blue!

[cosmicone]

1. something is amiss here

You mean in 2004 Democrats had 48.6% and Republicans 37.4%?

I think your table is skewed and needs to be redrawn to be meaningful.

[tekisui]

3. Those are the numbers given.

Indy must have gone almost completely to b*sh in 2004.

[knowledgeispwr]

2. Those numbers don't include people who voted yesterday

So the total could very well be something like 200K higher.

Also, you can't assume all those Dems voted for Obama, although most certainly did.

[kick-ass-bob]

4. Yesterday is now included:

http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/getdocument.aspx?id=1302

We have hit the 2,000,000 mark in early voting.

Now at 33% of all registered voters have already voted (and people can still register through tomorrow)

[scheming daemons]

5. Be careful.... Early voting measures enthusiasm, not raw numbers....

Even the most enthusiastic voter can only vote once.

[Beetwasher]

8. True, But I Have A Feeling A LOT Of McC Supporters Will End Up Staying Home

and not voting. Call it a hunch.

[Thrill]

6. Some many young people are voting here NC

[iceman66]

7. A lot of registered Democrats in the South vote Repug for president

so don't read too much into those numbers!

[kick-ass-bob]

9. Past truth, but not when you see who is voting now. n/t