UB professor says Bush has it in the bag

[FranzFerdinand]

After months of tweaking numbers based on polls and economic indicators, Campbell's version of the crystal ball uses a model that has accurately predicted the popular vote all the way back to 1948. This year, Campbell says that, barring any major gaffes or an "October surprise," Bush will capture 53.8 percent of the popular vote - enough to nail down the sometimes quirky electoral vote.

"If we were looking at something like a 51 to 49 percent popular vote, the Electoral College could go either way," Campbell said Tuesday. "But if I'm right, there's no way Bush won't win the electoral vote."

Campbell, dubbed by the Washington Post in 1992 as the "newly crowned king of election prognosticators," has drawn considerable national attention in recent years for his predictions based on opinion polls, the economy and incumbency. The model has never varied more than 3.7 percentage points off the actual vote and has correctly predicted the popular vote winner in every election since 1992.

http://www.buffalonews.com/editorial/20040908/1032065.asp

James E. Campbell also has a firm belief that the Iraq "war" was the noblest of American wars. makes me worry, because this guy is extremely intelligent and has perfect success in predicting election outcomes. looks like a Bush win if you go by his track record...

[blueknight]

1. the only way bush will win

is if they steal another election. american people are starting to see through all his bull shit and lies

[dweller]

2. most likely what's 'in his bag'

is some coke.


dp

[librechik]

5. Oh and a bunch of spare voter cards for Diebold machines

just in case Bush's noble achievements are not as appreciated among the masses as they are among his inner circle

[KC21304]

3. I was thinking the same thing. Bush this morning was definately

in the bag. He is hitting the sauce again.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

4. That's right Bushies, it's it the bag, you can relax

[tandot]

6. We are just too eager to have more of his incompetence in the WH

We all can't wait to have 4 more years of endless wars, more terrorist attacks, less jobs, a wrecked economy, destroyed environment, a raided Social Security, greedy corporations screwing the poor, and the biggest deficit ever.

With a record like that, who wouldn't want to vote for Bush :shrug:

[RobertDevereaux]

7. UB professor lies! n/t

[amber dog democrat]

8. Well I guess he called it wrong this time.

based on his conviction in " a firm belief that the Iraq "war" was the noblest of American wars. " - this discredits him already.

More noble than WW II ?
More noble than our intravention in Korea ?
More noble than the Civil War ?
More noble than the Revolutionary War ?


I am thinking there are many wars, military actions, police actions and gunboat shakedowns that are NOT so honerable and the LEAST honerable is this PNAC invasion and occupation. Prior to that was Vietnam.
What is so noble about invading a weak dictatorship and stealing its oil?

[bigtree]

9. extremely intelligent

and,

has a firm belief that the Iraq "war" was the noblest of American wars

HAWWWWWWWWWWWWW!!!!!!

[NewYorkerfromMass]

10. and in Buffalo

NOT.

[Dhalgren]

11. When I was growing up in the foothills of the

Appalachian Mountains, we had a pithy little phrase we would use when nearing the end of an argument. This phrase is what I would now like to say to Mr. Campbell. Ahem, "Eat shit and die poor!" Thank you.

[liberal N proud]

12. Does he know something that he is not telling?

Like the election is fixed?

[Insomnicole]

13. Hmmm...

"The model has never varied more than 3.7 percentage points off the actual vote and has correctly predicted the popular vote winner in every election since 1992."

So does that mean he picked Gore to win in 2000?

[amber dog democrat]

15. yeh, what you said !

in statistics this may be what is referred to as an inadaquate sample.
This idealogue has no credibility.

[TGC]

16. Unfortunately, yes

"Campbell correctly predicted Al Gore's popular vote victory in 2000, but the final vote total was so close that it couldn't account for the electoral vote victory finally awarded to Bush by the U.S. Supreme Court."

[AP]

21. Three for three, when two of those three were Clinton and one of three

is totally in dispute (and you could have claimed you were right either way). That's a great predictor.

[merh]

14. So, how did mr. successful since 1948 pick the 2000

election???

[underpants]

17. He predicted Gore's popular vote win *

Campbell correctly predicted Al Gore's popular vote victory in 2000, but the final vote total was so close that it couldn't account for the electoral vote victory finally awarded to Bush by the U.S. Supreme Court.

"This is simply a prediction of the popular vote," he said. "Historically, the two are highly corroborative. But we know from painful experience to both sides in 2000, that in a very close election, it can go either way."

[merh]

22. That's what the article states, but I have a hard time believing

anything I read that has the * slant these days. We have learned that these guys are not afraid to lie - hell, the do it all the time!
It's their hobby - "What you going to do today Dick, well Georgie, thought I would spin a new lie or two, how about you?"

[WI_DEM]

18. This is not a conventional election year

So I don't buy it. The one year it was off was 1968 and we had a strong economy then so the formula picked Hubert Humphrey the incumbent VP to win. But the "formula" didn't take into account an unpopular war. Just like it doesn't take it into account this time.

[Dem Agog]

19. "But if I'm right..."

what a dumbass statement. And if I'M right, there's no way bush will win. Anyone can make a lardass claim prefaced with "But if I'm right..."

[indie_voter]

20. It's too early, when were his final predictions made for previous races?nt

[Kinkistyle]

23. HAH! Why doesn't he apply that formula to the stock market.

Elections are about people's preferences and psychologies reflective of their perception of the environment and their expectations. Much like the stock market. Sure, maybe he calls it right a few times, but that is no indicator of future predictions at all. Just like a guy who flips a coin 3 times and gets 3 heads in a row.

[AP]

24. It's based on Gallup Polls and the GNP. If either are lies...

...

[Guaranteed]

25. Yeah, I heard they've got a serious crack problem

there at the University of Buffalo.

[FranzFerdinand]

26. hey, let's attack Buffalo because someone predicts Bush to win!

you look like little bitches when you don't get articles that swing your way. i live in Buffalo, i'm voting Kerry. back off my hometown... what's even funnier is that some of you even commented without even reading the article. come on now, is this how we roll in to November?

[gasperc]

27. if he believes Iraq was/is a noble war

then he is totally fucked in the head because even a majority of Republicans have serious doubts or out right opposition to the Iraq policy