Why The Newsweek and Time Polls Scared Me

[Beetwasher]

Not because I believed them, but because I knew they were bullshit, but somehow Rove got Time and Newsweek to run w/ them and got the media establishment to follow along and report them uncritically and ad nauseum. It's a frightening flexing of muscle if you think about it. If you doubted how much power they wield over the media, this little episode should put that notion to rest.

My worst fear has to do with the electronic voting machines. Time and Newsweek polls can provide significant cover for a theft of epic proportions using these machines. It's a scary thought and means we have to fight all that much harder, and we will.

[Frodo]

1. My biggest concern was how many people might believe them.

The PERCEPTION that the election is moving out of reach (combined with the unfortunate timing of the Kerry campaign "shake up") is almost as deadly as actually BEING behind.

Too many people who intend to vote for Kerry EXPECT Bush to win. Those types of voters don't always show up.

[northstar]

4. I disagree with your statement

Too many people who intend to vote for Kerry EXPECT Bush to win. Those types of voters don't always show up.

That's exactly WHY they will show up. If the public thinks it's 'gonna be a close one', they're gonna get out there and vote and help make a difference.

Remember, the 'margin' in Florida 2000 was around 500 votes, it made a WHOLE lotta people realize that THEIR VOTE - every one of them needs to be cast. I don't know about you, but I haven't heard anyone saying this time around that 'my vote won't make a difference' like we all used to hear.

[Frodo]

7. You don't seem to disagree at all.

"If the public thinks it's 'gonna be a close one', they're gonna get out there and vote and help make a difference."

Right! And a poll or two showing an 11pt lead for an incumbent President tends to eat away at that thought. They start to think "It ain't gonna be close".

Polls that correctly show a 4-5 point lead will do exactly what you say.

[Beetwasher]

8. Well, I'm Sure That Was The Intended Effect

It seemed to coincide with a concerted push of the "Kerry is collapsing/in dissarray" story...It remains to be seen how effective it will be, though it seems to me that it was NOT very effective and Kerry weathered it well...it could very easily backfire and motivate the other side as another poster on-thread noted...

[NewYorkerfromMass]

2. In a way they may help us

I think it has fired up the ground troops, who will not accept defeat.

[Beetwasher]

9. Hopefully!

I think Kerry weathered it well...

It's just a frightening illustration of the amount of unchecked power the other side has...To coordinate a couple of big polls to coincide with their push of "Kerry is collapsing and in dissarray!" story right after their convention...

[Dems Will Win]

3. Zogby himself explained how they used 31% Democrat methodology

when the last 2 Presidentials were 39% Democrat!

Using the same numbers, Zogby gets 46 for Bush, 44 for Kerry, when you use the proper 39% Dem.

Plus with all the registration and the uptick in the youth vote for Kerry due to the draft, we could go over 40% for Dems this year.

So work hard, be happy, don't worry.

Plus polls taken during last 2 weeks of August and over Labor Day are more conservative because workers are on vacation and away from their phones!

Look at the polls in a week or two to get a real sense. By the way the Rasmussen tracking poll had the race tied at 47.3% yesterday!

[KurtNYC]

5. Zogby link here

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews859.html

Newsweek is the same publication that denied that "Anonymous" was written by Joe Klein. Flatly denied it. Their bias predates Rove.

[DeepModem Mom]

6. As the election nears, their power abuse is becoming more frightening --

I agree completely with you. There are two levels to be aware of here, I think. One, there is an election, with an issue for some of us of abuse of power, and fear that another four years could possibly bring an end to our system as we've known it. The other level is abuse of power used to manipulate and control the electoral process itself. In my most fearful and pessimistic moments, I find myself convinced that they will not give up the power they've achieved -- that they will hold on to it whatever it takes.

Control of the media, in particular, is reaching a crisis point. To cite an example that could be seen as frivolous, but really is not -- Kitty Kelley, a frequent guest on Larry King's CNN show, will apparently not appear in connection with her Bush book. Can there be any doubt about who/what is behind blocking her appearance?

[Beetwasher]

10. Yup

Precisely why it's frightening...It really illustrates how much unchecked power they can wield and how organized they are...Somehow they got Time and Newsweek to release these obviously skewed polls and they coordinated it w/ a push of "Kerry is collapsing and in dissarray!" stories...

[a new day]

11. Rasmussen provides data to both Time and Newsweek

Rasmussen interpreted the data is a very different way, never giving more that a 4.5 lead:

Date....Bush.Kerry
Today. 47.3 47.3
Sept 6 47.6 46.5
Sept 5 47.6 46.4
Sept 4 49.1 44.7
Sept 3 49.0 45
Sept 2 49.0 45
Sept 1 47.0 47
Aug 31 47.0 46
Aug 30 47.0 46
Aug 29 48.0 45



http://www.truthout.org/docs_04/090804W.shtml

[NJCher]

12. even my local NPR

I was so angry that they just aired these polls uncritically and even had the pollsters on the show. They didn't say a word about their skewed sample.

As it was a call-in show, I went outside with my cell phone and notes from Rasmussen, who set the record straight on the oversampling, and called and called, trying to get on. Sorry to say I was met with a constant busy signal and never got on the show.

It just occurred to me, though, to e-mail the host and ask him to air this additional information. I think I will include your post about this, beetwasher. It is an appalling display of their power over the media.


Cher

[Beetwasher]

13. Cool! Please do!

Email and use my post if you wish, that is!

[Nadienne]

14. This does not necessarily mean that Time and Newsweek

had their arms twisted. The Corporate Media and the Bush Administration probably are corraborating. They certainly seem to be looking out for each other.

[Beetwasher]

15. There Was Without A Doubt (to me anyway) SOME Type Of Coordination

between Time and Newsweek and the Bush campaign...The whole post convention, pro-Bush/"Kerry's collapsing" push was just too damn tidy...

[DeepModem Mom]

16. That's true -- I think some in the media are pressured and/or coerced...

and others, particularly at the corporate level, are all too happy to do what they can to insure a Bush victory.

[Beetwasher]

17. Kick!

n/t

[NJCher]

18. just for the record

I sent the email to my local public radio (WNYC) and yes, I did use your post in it.


Cher