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(Written by myself with lots of help from others) ----- The rumblings began, at least on the internet, well over a year ago. People – mostly political activists – discovered small notices in local newspapers and on the Department of Defense web site advertising draft board seats needing to be filled. Within hours messages were posted on political bulletin boards with questions about the possibility of the draft returning. Actually, it would be impossible for the draft to “return.” The truth of the matter is that it never truly left us. Selective Service has been registering people for over 20 years and the President can go before Congress at any time to request the reauthorization of conscription. Congress would not be required to pass a whole new draft law to accomplish this task. A “trigger resolution,” which could be passed in an afternoon, is all that is needed. Once that is done, conscription once again goes into effect for men, 18 to 26. Actions or Words?There hasn’t been a draft in the US since 1973. The Pentagon, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, as well as officials in the Selective Service System itself have publicly denied conscription is being considered and that the draft will be re-instated. Indeed the following paragraph appears on the Internet home page of the Selective Service: “Notwithstanding recent stories in the news media and on the Internet, Selective Service is not getting ready to conduct a draft for the U.S. Armed Forces – either with a special skills or regular draft. Rather, the Agency remains prepared to manage a draft if and when the President and the Congress so direct. This responsibility has been ongoing since 1980 and is nothing new. Further, both the President and the Secretary of Defense have stated on more than one occasion that there is no need for a draft for the War on Terrorism or any likely contingency, such as Iraq. Additionally, the Congress has not acted on any proposed legislation to reinstate a draft. Therefore, Selective Service continues to refine its plans to be prepared as required by law, and to register young men who are ages 18 through 25.” Actions taken in recent months by the executive branch, the Selective Service and Presidential advisor Karl Rove, however, are in opposition to these statements. Last fall, according to Family Circle magazine, Rove polled Republican members of Congress on how they felt about the draft. The Congressional leaders said they would support the president. The magazine reports the opinions of politicians and military experts who say that because our military is spread so thinly (we currently have troops stationed in two-thirds of the world’s countries), the high casualty rates in Iraq and Afghanistan and, the fact that, according to Rep. Charles Rangel (D-NY) “half of Guards and reservists say they have no intention to stay in” are strong indicators that “ultimately we will run out of bodies.”
According to retired U.S. Army Colonel David Hackworth, a military analyst and one of the most decorated officers in the army, the U.S. military is now so shorthanded that a whopping 40 percent of the 135,000 troops being rotated into Iraq are National Guard members and reservists. Congressman Rangel also warns, “We haven’t called up this level of reservists since the Korean War.
According to the Selective Service Annual Performance Plan for 2004, before next March 31 draft boards must be potentially operational within two and a half months of a return to conscription.
Two bills were introduced in Congress last year proposing mandatory national service for young people either in the military or in some alternative civilian service. The bills – one by retiring Sen. Ernest Hollings (D-SC) and the other by Rep. Rangel (D-NY) and number of other House sponsors – have been sitting in committees in the Senate and the House without action.
But Rangel has said he doesn’t think his bill will go anywhere, and that he really introduced it to provoke public discussion.
So, what needs public discussion? The Selective Service Performance Plan for Fiscal Year 2004 and the changes it mandates. The Selective Service has for decades operated a low level of readiness. Readiness exercises are conducted on a multi-year cycle. Historically these exercises have been little more than getting draft board volunteers together and going over the procedures of what would happen under reinstatement and training new members every summer. The draft boards themselves had become 80 percent vacant over the decades.
In the current five-year cycle of exercises, however, the Selective Service has made several changes to the draft machinery – to a level not seen since the Vietnam era. In fact, the mission of the Selective Service is to be read to conscript within 193 days of reauthorization by Congress. This would mean it would take over six months before any lottery could be held and report orders issues. The new plan for this fiscal year, outlined in Strategic Objective 1.2, reduces that time to 75 days. By March 31, 2005, a report must be issued by the Director of the SSS to the Pentagon that the system will be ready to hold the first draft lottery within 75 days, rather than the usual 193 days.
This is where the internet rumor of a draft lottery on June 15, 2005 began. Seventy-five days from March 31, 2005 (the date the report is due to the Pentagon) is June 15. If Congress agrees to a reinstatement on April 1, the first batch of over one million young men would face the lottery as soon as that date.
The Plan’s Goals
In times where most budgets are being slashed by the executive branch and Congress, the Selective Service, in contrast, has received a budget increase. The 2003 budget was roughly $26 million. The current budget is $28 million. According to the 2004 Plan, the budget is being spent in the following manner:
Strategic Goal 1: Increase the effectiveness and efficiency of the Manpower Delivery Systems (Projected allocation for FY 2004 -- $7,942,000)
Strategic Goal 2: Improve overall Registration Compliance and Service to the Public (Projected allocation FY 2004 -- $8,769,000)
Strategic Goal 3: Enhance external and internal customer service (Projected allocation FY 2004 -- $10,624,000)
Strategic Goal 4: Enhance the system which guarantees that each conscientious objector is properly classified, placed and monitored. (Projected allocation for FY 2004 -- $955,000)
In analyzing each of the 2004 goals and objectives in detail, there are ‘activation bombshells’ within the Performance Plan. Goal number one, in particular, brings the combat induction process up to 95 percent operational readiness, going so far as to actually hold a mock lottery drawing this year and to issue sample orders to report for a medical exam. The document does not reveal the actual day in 2004 the mock lottery is to be held.
In addition, the medical draft (Health Care Personnel Delivery System or HCPDS in the Performance Plan) is for the first time brought up to full readiness by next year. This draft would take men and women, up to age 44, if they are doctors, nurses or one of more than 60 medical specialties. No medical deferments are allowed. Previous readiness exercises merely went over what would happen with HCPDS and updated the guide. The 2004 Plan actually develops a readiness exercise for the Health Care Personnel Delivery System that would conducted next year. HCPDS must be ready to conscript by June.
Goal number two increases registration compliance and assigns Registrars to nearly every American high school. The goal is to have Registrars at 85 percent of the nation’s schools.
Goal number three makes ready the administration of the draft, down to making sure the system can answer all correspondence within 10 days and that new tracking software is implemented as quickly as possible.
Goal number four, as written, is particularly ominous: “Strategic Objective 4.1: Ensure a mobilization infrastructure of 48 Alternatives Service Offices and 48 Civilian Review Boards are operational within 96 days after notification of a return to induction.”
For 31 years, the Conscientious Objector system, called the Alternative Service, has lain dormant. The 2004 Plan calls for this to brought up to speed and to be read to decide cases and place COS in the Alternative Service by July 6, 2005 (96 days after March 31). The Selective Service is drawing up the Standard Operating Procedures which identify local employers eligible to receive inexpensive Alternative Service workers. The Selective Service is also drawing up the Memorandum of Understanding the employer must sign to get their workers and allow their mandatory attendance be monitored. This is the last obstacle to be hurdled before the draft could actually be ready for activation under the law.
More Proposals
The Selective Service System has also presented a six page proposal to the Pentagon that calls for the creation of a “Skills Draft,” conscripting men and women up to age 34 for non-combat jobs such as linguist, computer specialist or engineer – the first three occupations that the Department of Defense has identified as being in short supply.
In that document, the chief of the Selective Service proposed registering women for the military draft and requiring that young Americans regularly inform the government about whether they have training in niche specialties needed in the armed services.
The proposal, which the agency’s acting Director Lewis Brodsky presented to senior Pentagon officials just before the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, also seeks to extend the age of draft registration to 34, up from 25.
The plan, obtained under the Freedom of Information Act, highlights the extent to which the agency officials have planned for an expanded military draft in case the administration and Congress would authorize one in the future.
“In line with today’s needs, the Selective Service System’s structure, programs and activities should be re-engineered toward maintaining a national inventory of American men and, for the first time, women, ages 18 through 34, with an added focus on identifying individuals with critical skills,” the agency said in a Feb. 11, 2003 proposal presented to senior Pentagon officials.
Brodsky and Richard Flahavan, the agency’s director of public and congressional affairs, reviewed the six-page proposal with Pentagon officials responsible for personnel issues. They included Charles Abell, principal deputy undersecretary for personnel and readiness, and William Carr, deputy undersecretary for military personnel policy.
According to an article in the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, the agency officials acknowledge they would have “to market the concept” of a female draft to Congress, which ultimately would have to authorize such a step.
“These ideas were only being floated for the Department of Defense consideration,” Dan Amon, a spokesman for the SSS based in Arlington, Va., said. He described the proposal as “food for thought” for contingency planning. He also noted that this proposal had not been acted upon by any legislative body.
Regardless of official action, Flahavan said the agency has begun designing procedures for a targeted registration and draft of people with computer and language skills, in case military officials and Congress authorize it.
Rumsfeld is adamant that he will not ask Congress to authorize a draft, and officials at the Selective Service System stress that the possibility of a so-called “special skills draft” is remote. “I don’t know anyone in the executive branch of the government who believes that it would be appropriate or necessary to reinstitute the draft,” Rumsfeld said last month.
At the present time, Selective Service is authorized to register only young men and they are not required to inform the government about any professional skills. Separately, the agency has in place a special registration system to draft health care personnel in more than 60 specialties into the military if necessary.
The military has had particular difficulty attracting and retaining language experts, especially people knowledgeable about Arabic and various Afghan dialects. The address this need, the Army has a new pilot program under way to recruit Arabic speakers into the service’s Ready Reserves. The service has signed up about 150 people into the training program.
About 14 million men, ages 18 to 25, are currently registered with the Selective Service. The U.S. Army, including active duty, reserves and National Guard, totals about 1 million soldiers, of which about 650,000 are being used all over the world.
Roughly two weeks ago, the Army called up 5,600 soldiers from the Individual Ready Reserve and signaled that more may be tapped. The Ready Reserve is made up of soldiers who have left active duty and don’t participate in regularly scheduled military training. Defense officials also have extended active duty for many soldiers and are moving troops to Iraq from South Korea.
Presently the US has about 140,000 troops in Iraq and nearly 18,000 in Afghanistan. This spring, The Hill, a newspaper that covers Congress, could find only eight lawmakers with children in the armed forces - and only two of them saw service in Iraq. By contrast, in World War II, 62 senators and 211 representatives had offspring or grandchildren in uniform.
A copy of the SSS Annual Performance Plan, Fiscal Year 2004, can be found by visiting http://www.sss.gov/perfplan_fy2004.html
The Skilled Draft proposal was originally reported by Eric Rosenburg of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer. The document was obtained through the Freedom of Information Act. |
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