A time for trouble.....

[hurley]

Okie kiddies lets play with Numbers:

http://www.federalreview.com/fedrevdata.htm>FederalReview.com Has posted their electoral vote data and Bush is in the lead.

They're currently showing 84EVs up for grabs (and I think this is pretty accurate). They are the following:

FL - 27
PA - 21
MN - 10
WI - 10
IA - 7
NM - 5
NH - 4

They also show Ohio (20EV) going to Bush with a 2.3% lead.

Assuming that all the above states (including OH) are in play, we get a total of 104EV that are up for grabs. Without those states, Bush has 227EV, and Kerry has 207EV. These represent the solid states for the respective candidates, and it will be difficult for either one of them to loose those states. In order for Kerry to win, he needs to pick up 72 of the above electoral votes, or limit Bush to winning 31 votes (however you want to spin it).

My challange to you. Which states will Kerry plausibly win?

[SaveElmer]

1. I think he will win all of them

With the possible exception of Florida

[dennis4868]

2. Kerry will win.....

FL, PA, MN, NM, NH and IA.....

[Beetwasher]

3. Kerry Should Win All Those States Except FL.

But he doesn't need FL OR OH to win. He can also pick up AZ, NV, WV and VA and NC are now also in serious play as well as Arkansas and TN.

I discount FL because I think it's too rigged, NOT because Kerry won't get the most votes there, I think he will.

[hatrack]

4. I'd say all but Florida (of the seven you list above)

Florida's just too fucked up, with Jeb! "in charge" and Diebold in the house.

Not to say that big turnout couldn't put it play for Kerry. I just don't trust the system down there.