http://www.cookpolitical.com/column/2004/072504.phpSometimes a Tie Isn't Really a Tie
By Charlie Cook
© National Journal
July 25, 2004
President Bush and Sen. John Kerry each face challenges in their upcoming conventions, but the challenges are not of equal difficulty. For Kerry, the challenge is to clear the threshold of acceptability with voters. For Bush, the challenge is to change minds.
For the better part of four months, this race has been effectively tied, with the two candidates running at about 45 percent or 46 percent, give or take 3 percentage points, depending upon the poll, the week, and the events leading into the survey. Since Kerry's choice of Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina to be his running mate, the Democratic ticket has ticked up about 2 to 4 points, and is ever-so-slightly ahead in most polls. The mistake that many make is to assume that a tie in the polls means that the two candidates have equal chances of winning. Not so.
An axiom in politics is that undecided voters rarely end up casting their ballots for well-known, well-defined incumbents. If a well-known and established incumbent picks up one-quarter to one-third of the undecided vote, he is lucky indeed. Just a cursory look at the current pool of undecided voters suggests that Bush is unlikely to get even one-quarter of the undecided vote.
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For an analysis of how various allocations of undecided votes will affect Kerry's expected Electoral Vote and probability of winning, look here:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/