Why are we down so far in Ohio?

[Quixote1818]

Are manufacturing jobs up? Whats the deal? Anyone have any thoughts?

[JI7]

1. it depends on what poll you are looking at

[My Pet Goat]

2. What the heck are you referring to...?

link please (and do include registered voter results as well).

[Quixote1818]

3. Link

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[My Pet Goat]

9. Zogby from Sept. 3???

Is that the interactive version to boot? Get with it. Gallup was out today showing the race in OH tied.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/9/8/212226/3237

[tritsofme]

10. Gallup showed it tied among registered voters, but 8 point lead

for * among likely voters.

The fact that its tied among registered voters is not all that comforting, seeing as Kerry had a 10 point lead among registered voters in the last Gallup poll in August.

[My Pet Goat]

14. Good point but still...

we're not in "why are we so far down" territory, at least according to this latest poll. I'll pay more attention to Gallup's likely numbers closer in but that still might be enough, because Gallup signficantly revised days before the 2000 election. If things play out like 2002, then the Gallup likely numbers will be good.

[tedoll78]

17. I'll try to comfort you a bit:

the poll was taken from the best week that Bush can ever expect to see in this race - the week after his convention. That's he's leading among registered voters by a mere 1% in this week is a bad, bad sign for him; he's only going to go downhill from here.

I take it as a good sign. Even at his best, he's still only ahead of Kerry within the margin of error. And our side is more fired-up about turnout this year.

[robo]

64. I'm from Cincinnati

I have seen more Kerry {DEM'S. stickers } stickers than i have ever seen in a election here in cin. I think it's going to be up to the wire.

[roseBudd]

73. Hey Robo contact me

I'm in cincinnati too.

[robo]

74. Contact

They won't let contact you not enought post , try and contact me

[roseBudd]

75. i can't contact you either

email me at [e-mail]

[ailsagirl]

8. Another (encouraging) electoral projection site

http://www.race2004.net/election.php

The main website (http://www.race2004.net) has loads of information about the various states and their polls. It also has this to say:

If the election were held today we project the following results.

If Nader is on the ballot Kerry wins the presidency with 275 electoral votes. Bush places second with 254 electoral votes.

States lacking sufficient polling data to determine a winner: Colorado

Kerry wins the popular vote with 55,143,346 votes (49.41%). Bush places second with 53,954,980 votes (48.34%).

If Nader is not on the ballot Kerry wins the presidency with 275 electoral votes. Bush places second with 254 electoral votes.

States lacking sufficient polling data to determine a winner: Colorado

Kerry wins the popular vote with 55,137,989 votes (49.4%). Bush places second with 54,036,979 votes (48.42%).

[newyawker99]

38. Hi ailsagirl!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Quixote1818]

4. How can we only be down 2 in Arkansas and 11 in Ohio???

[Art_from_Ark]

5. Ohio almost always votes Republican

while Arkansas is a mostly Democratic state that will vote for a Democratic ticket if it includes a Southerner
:hi:

[flaminbats]

31. Kerry should let voters know what awaits them..

he should warn that the Department of Homeland Security has a plan to collect all guns owned by the civilian population. He should proclaim that this will never happen when he is President.

http://www.ndol.org/ndol_ci.cfm?cp=2&kaid=127&subid=900056&contentid=252463

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

35. Clinton won twice...

And up until 1994 we had two Democratic Senators. And we had a Democratic Governor throughout the 1980's. All the major cities in Ohio currently have Democratic mayors.

[democratreformed]

50. AND if the economy is bad. n/t

[DarthDem]

16. This Brings Up An Excellent Point

Arkansas. Remember this place? Six votes. The Gore states have 264, so six more . . . .

No Ohio, no Florida, no matter. Gore states + Arkansas, and nowhere else, = a win. The polls there are razor-thin; let's saturate the state with ads and visits.

[tedoll78]

18. Correction:

The Gore states have 260.

But your point is still excellent - with Gore States + New Hampshire (which looks like a Kerry certainty now) + Arkansas, we win with exactly 270EVs.

[daydreamer]

30. your are right, no need to be down!

:D

[flaminbats]

6. perhaps anger against Bush is not a factor..

the only way Kerry can win nationally and in swing states like Ohio is if the majority of voters are unhappy with the incumbents in general.

If Kerry hopes to do well in Ohio he needs to bombard that state with ads that hurt Bush's approval ratings. If he has to rip Bush personally, then he should do it. The only way this will work is if swing voters believe a vote for Bush is something to be ashamed of.

[LynneSin]

7. Swiftboat ads played heavily in Ohio

that texan group plans to run counterads in Ohio. Probably will be solved in a few weeks

[tritsofme]

11. I don't think these guys will be as successful as the Swift Liars

The Bush being AWOL theme has been known since 1999, and most people think they know all there is to know about it.

Because of the Democratic Convention and Kerry's campaign up to that point, everyone was under the perception, and rightly so, that Kerry served honorably in Vietnam, and that he was a hero. When the liars came out said he was a traitor and all their other BS, it was the first time people had heard about any of it.

I personally think AWOL is old news and it won't solve anything, and I don't think these new ads will just fix the problem.

[Quixote1818]

23. If you constantly remind people about bad things they will remain

fresh in their subconscious. It's just like advertising. The more you say something no matter how old it is the more people will remember it and it becomes relevant. Believe me the National Guard thing if people are constantly reminded of it will do damage. Look, Thomas Jefferson still suffers from Sally Hemmings.

[bobbieinok]

90. most people did NOT know about AWOL until recently

RW news media claim it was discussed and disproved.....IT WAS NOT DISCUSSED....IT WAS NOT DISPROVED

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

36. Not sure about that...

I never saw one other than on the internet and on news programs that talked about them. By the same token, I've seen more Kerry ads online than I have on TV. I live in SW Ohio, so maybe its perceived to be so hard-core Republican that there's little need to advertise down here. Maybe folks in Dayton and Columbus are seeing more than I am.

[AngryOldDem]

68. SBV Ads Getting Heavy Play in Dayton

Have been since they were introduced back in August.

Dayton is in Montgomery County, pegged as the county that Kerry must win if he is to get Ohio.

Ads for both Kerry and Bush have been plentiful, but Kerry slacked off in late summer and let Bush take over -- I understand why, but I don't think it's helped.

[Waverley_Hills_Hiker]

78. There is that military element here too..

with WPAFB, you have the workforce, and the retirees, that are military related...so I think they know their market here...

[johnnie]

37. Maybe in southern Ohio

I didn't see the swift boat ads once up here in Cleveland. I saw that they are going to run the Texans ad in Columbus. Southern Ohio is pretty far right, but I believe that is changing.

[theHandpuppet]

53. Make that SouthWESTERN Ohio...

Please don't lump Appalachian Ohioans in the SE with the dimwits in SW Ohio and their capital city, Zinzinnati.

[Waverley_Hills_Hiker]

63. Actually appalachian Ohio has a great Democratic Congressman..

....Strickland, and these countys do on occasion vote for the Dem for Prez...


As noted, SW Ohio is another story...

[AngryOldDem]

70. And Please Don't Lump SW Ohio Counties North of Cincy...

...as being full of dimwits. Montgomery has been a solidly Democratic county for years, and the grassroots volunteer efforts and support for Kerry are strong, which is why I'm taking these Ohio polls with a grain of salt. Cincinnati is in a class by itself. You can't define the entire region by that city. Thanks.

[roseBudd]

72. I resent that, it is the white flight suburbs of Cincinnati that ...

make Cincinnati look bad. The city itself is quite democratic.

[Philostopher]

86. You're absolutely right.

And the original 3rd District, where Tony Hall, a moderate Democrat, was so successful the Republicans didn't bother to field a candidate against him the last time or two he ran, was gerrymandered to include parts of traditional 'God, guts and guns' Republican counties like Butler, Warren and I believe Clinton to guarantee they could get a toad in charge of this district instead of a Democrat. We had a (moderate, I admit) Democratic congressman in south Dayton/Montgomery County for 16 years. Another reason Mike Turner (Goodhair Junior) is in there right now is that Bush* nominated Hall for a diplomatic position, but didn't appoint him until two months before the election, so the Democrats couldn't really field a decent candidate because they were afraid they might have to back Hall again, if the diplomatic appointment didn't go through. You can bet Mike Turner would have gone back to teaching Karate classes, if Hall had run that year.

It's because the despicable f*cks play dirty down here, and they've been in charge and spreading their asses in their offices for a long time. They're every bit as vicious as the neocons in Washington, and every bit as well-entrenched.

[Bake]

91. Cinci is wingnut heaven.

I lived there (actually in N. Ky., just on the other side of the river) for 9 years. It is so right-wing it is like Der Fatherland.

We have to carry cities like Cleveland, Akron, Toledo, etc. Cinci is out of reach.

Bake

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

92. Lived in Cincinnati for fifteen years now...

and the Republicans have never even come close to a majority on City Council, and the last Republican mayor was something like twenty-five years ago. In the last mayoral election, they didn't even have a candidate.

The City of Cincinnati is strongly (like 65-70%) Democratic. It's the townships of the far east and far west sides of Hamilton County that are conservative. Ditto for Northern Kentucky, and the counties of Butler, Warren, and Clermont. All the right-wingers who are fled the city wound up there.

In one of those red-blue-purple maps of Ohio (by county), Hamilton county was more Democratic than all the other counties that surround it.

Edit: The last Republican Mayor of Cincinnati was 1971.

[ogradda]

12. ive been watching the state polls very closely

i'm afraid they're gonna try and fix the votes, so the first thing they would do is fix the polls

[goodwalt]

20. Scary and incisive

That's a scary and incisive comment. For my money, Zogby is the poll to watch- and I was very pleased with the numbers they released today. I've been ranting to my friends at work for months that Bush is cooked unless he manages to comandeer the touch-screen-paper less voting machines to steal this one too. That, combined with the funny numbers we have been seeing in the polls here lately (11 point bounce from major publications using laughable demographics?), makes me wonder if the screwy poll numbers might be more about covering up voter fraud, and less about demoralizing the democrat electorate.

[democratreformed]

51. You're right about that, I believe. I think that, provided elections are

rigged, the polls are rigged first to quell dissent. I'm not saying I believe they are rigged b/c I am currently trying my damndest to live in denial of that frightening thought.

[dolstein]

13. Because Kerry's a liberal from Massachusetts

Sorry, but how long has it been since Ohio voted for a liberal from the Northeast?

[PurityOfEssence]

15. So it won't look so weird when Diebold steals it

Whadja think?

[tedoll78]

19. Actually,

Diebold will not be a factor in Ohio this year; they won't be using the Diebold touchscreen voting machines.

[LiberalCat]

21. I thought Diebold was still being used.

My county has had touchscreens for over ten years. I thought it was still allowed to use touchscreens. I thought Diebold was only barred from counties using them first time this year.

[tedoll78]

22. I think you're right.

Oops.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=172&topic_id=621

It's still a good sign, most counties not voting with Diebold. This is one of the reasons I trust Ohio slightly more than Florida.. :P

[Chili]

24. Ohio...

...is, overall, a moderately conservative state. If we go for the Democrat, we seem to prefer moderates - Clinton twice, Carter in '76. Went for Nixon twice, Reagan twice (*shakes head*) We didn't even go for Kennedy, so whoever said it is right - Ohio has never gone for a "liberal" Democrat (okay, maybe FDR, but I didn't go back that far, LOL). If Kerry takes Ohio, it will be a first. And a shock. So please, DO NOT rely on Ohio, we can win without it; this is NOT a liberal state. We may be liberal in the cities, but we're outnumbered in the rural areas, and there's lots of "rural" in Ohio. That's not to say I'm going to stop hoping and working for it, but stop expecting it happen.

[flaminbats]

25. expecting Kerry to win is a mistake..

Kerry must treat this election as if he has already lost it, and fight for every state as if he has nothing to lose.

Kerry will not win this election unless he wins Ohio.

[Chili]

27. he can

...if he holds onto the states he has, even with slim margins, and wins the states he should - WI, IA, MO, MN, MI, PA - he doesn't need Ohio, he still wins. Even without FL - he wins.

Although, I forgot to say - I totally agree with this:

"Kerry must treat this election as if he has already lost it, and fight for every state as if he has nothing to lose."

Absolutely.

[flaminbats]

29. WI, IA, MO, MN, MI, PA are states Kerry must not lose..

These states were won by Gore, so logically Kerry cannot win without them. Kerry should have an advantage in New Hampshire, because unlike Gore he comes from the neighboring state. This leaves West Virginia, Ohio, Nevada, and Florida as states that will determine who wins in a close election. Kerry must spend some time on winning these red states. Hopefully Arkansas, Virginia, and North Carolina will be in play..but Kerry should take no state for granted.

[Leilani]

40. Did Gore win Missouri?

I thought Bush won Missouri.

[Alpha Wolf]

52. Bush won Missouri

n/t

[flaminbats]

79. true...

Ohio, MO, West Virginia, and Nevada will all be close.

[roseBudd]

49. Cleveland & Akron are heavily democratic

[ogradda]

26. this is the kind of thing i mean

i see some polls claiming california is a "weak" kerry state. i know that's bullshit. i've seen washington polled as a "weak" kerry state too. also bullshit. right after the convention some of the polls had bush up 11 or 12 points. i couldn't see that as possible with the small pool of undecided voters unless quite a few kerry voters had switched and i couldn't see that many switching.... any way see what i mean?? i mean the list goes on and on - they are planning something and i'm damned if i'll let them :(

[daydreamer]

28. I think you got a point

I live in Kansas, and I know people who never voted before are now registered democrats after Micheal More's 9/11 movie. I also have co workers who are from rural Kansas are not going to vote for Bush this year. Kerry is on the truth's side. Bush has to go. By talking to whoever I get a chance, I found repuke has surely brain washed some of the simple minded "read neck" but there still a lot left to think for themselves. Kerry needs to fight back issue by issue, and he is on the right side of every issue.

[Zynx]

32. We're not. Polls can be very wrong. Don't pay attention to them.

[AP]

33. Delphi's terminating jobs in NY (Dem) and GM's picking up those workers &

giving them jobs in Mich (Swing), Ohio (Swing) and LA (Swing) with 40K signing bonuses.

So, net gain Zero, but it helps people in communities picking up those jobs and the discretionary spending from those bonus checks feel like things are OK.

[liberal N proud]

34. Depends on where the polls are taken?

If the polls are taken stricktly from the southern part of the state, they will reflect the gop favor. But again, the polls are flawed.

[seabeyond]

39. just saw msnbc talk to professor in ohio

very articulate. laid out why bush may be ahead and specifically showed how he probably wont keep that lead and the opens kerry has to go after bush

saying bush had a good august. sept not so good. people were down on bush with iraq but with handover iraq went off the news. iraq is back on news and a mess. kerry has been defending his position with iraq and that is silliness, bush is the one doing iraq and he is the one that needs to be defending his decisions. how this is going to affect from here on out

then economy and really that is what is important to ohio. and democrats have ads with people going from good paying jobs to 8 an hour and no benefits and simply saying you cannot live on that.

this too is going to effect the numbers

so he was very optimistic for kerry

[Davis_X_Machina]

42. No candidate who is reduced to...

...."Vote for us or YOU'RE ALL GONNA DIE" two months before the election is ultimately going to win.

You might pull votes with that a week before the election, but if you're shouting that now, there's no place left to go later.

Only someone with a crappy hand is going to lead their first, or second, or third trick with their highest trump card.

[seabeyond]

43. i agree

adn i am going to start using that and follow with, have you repugs no shame

and leave it at that

[cmd]

41. If Kerry is going to lose Ohio, then he .............

would not be drawing huge crowds in the republican bastions of the state. Polling at our office indicates that many republicans are shifting their votes away from * or will not vote at all. We welcome visitors who would like to help us elect a new president. Hope to see you soon. cmd

[Mr Blond]

45. What do you do?

Looks like you're involved in things in Ohio. Just curious as to what?

And whatever it is, THANK YOU!! :)

[cmd]

46. I volunteer at the local Kerry HQ

Phone banks, letters to editors, meetings, refreshments, door to door work. I'm lucky enough to be retired and able to give more time than the average voter.

[Mr Blond]

47. Thank you again!

You're a beautiful person! May God bless you!! :)

[cmd]

83. You are very welcome, Mr. Blond

and welcome to the underground. The buckeye crowd is getting bigger every day! cmd

[A Brand New World]

56. West Central Ohio

I'm from rural Champaign Co., mostly Repub., and at the county fair the Dem. booth stated that they had picked up close to 800 new Dem. registrations and transfers from Repub. That is amazing, considering our total county population is only 36,000.

Also, Kerry/Edwards appeared at the midnight rally last week in Springfield which is in Clark Co., the county south of Champaign, and drew close to 13,000 people. Midnight on a Thursday night when everyone had to go to work the next day. Bush appeared 2 weeks ago on a Saturday morning in Miami County, the county west of Champaign, and had 18,000. But no one was working then. So I cannot see that Kerry will lose.

I'm also seeing lots of Kerry/Edwards yard signs. Not so many Bush, although they may not be out yet.

[cmd]

81. That is exactly what I mean

The Springfield and Zanesville rallies have been huge. We have lots of new energized voters out there who are ready to take our country back. Welcome to DU. It's always great to see a new buckeye on the board. cmd

[frogbison]

93. Hey! That's great!

Hadn't seen an estimate of the crowd numbers before. I, along with my daughter and her boyfriend, were among the 13,000 at Springfield. I live down by Portsmouth, where the (p)resident was today and went to Springfield knowing I'd get home at 4 AM. Yes, I had to work the next day.

I am heartened by the much more outward show of support for Kerry than Bush, even down here. BTW, I loved the picture, on another thread, of Bush at Shawnee State University. I know some of the folks in the photo, and they certainly looked "inspired" by our great misleader!

[Joanne98]

44. The Christian card being played big time.

Out of work people going to churches to get food. Churches telling them to vote for the bastard that shipped their jobs overseas. nobody ever accused Ohioians of being smart. How do I know? I'm living here.

[roseBudd]

48. I canvass everyday in SW Ohio

I canvass African Americans and low income urban whites. They are Kerry supporters and they are not likely voters. Hamilton County has 38,000 new voter registrations and Cincinnati is 43% black.

African Americans are afraid they will steal it again. We must motivate and keep their spirits up. I am telling people not to listen to the polls because they are not calling cell phones.

Even though I am white I have no problem canvassing black people. They know we dems are all in the boat together.

[theHandpuppet]

54. Five words for the Kerry campaign:

Ironton, Portsmouth, Jackson, Belpre, Marietta. Spend some time courting the hard-hit Appalachian counties in SE Ohio and the state could be tipped in our favor. These folks are just waiting for someone to speak to them. Proportionately, they voted for Gore more than almost any other region in Ohio, and by far more than anywhere in western Ohio... these votes are there and waiting!

[Waverley_Hills_Hiker]

67. Check out this map:

Winning year for Dems in Ohio...

1996
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/img.php?year=1996&st=OH&type=map

1992
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/img.php?year=1992&st=OH&type=map

Note the cluster of countys in the southern and southeastern part of the state, on or near the Ohio river..thats what theHandpupet is taking about....

[AngryOldDem]

69. These People Don't Vote

>>>the hard-hit Appalachian counties in SE Ohio>>

All the more reason why get-out-the-vote drives need to be focusing on this area HARD. Cleveland Plain Dealer had a story about this a few weeks back, which I linked on the Ohio board.

These people are so marginalized to the point where they say, why bother? That's just wrong. They could turn the tide for Kerry this year.

[theHandpuppet]

85. Marginalized and disenfranchised...

... these are people ready to vote for someone who will offer them real hope and a vision for the future. Unemployment rates in that part of Ohio are in the double digits. The repuke govt in Columbus doesn't give a damn about these folks.

An appearance by John and Elizabeth Edwards (along with Ted Strickland) in the aforementioned cities would at least signal to these folks that they are NOT invisible and that their votes MATTER. I firmly believe that a concerted effort to reach out to this forgotten region of Ohio could tip the balance for the Dems.

[EST]

55. One must keep in mind

After all the whining, worrying, celebrating, bitching, working, praying and numerous other maladies we are particularly heir to-Democratic voters are PISSED! Don't sweat it.

[seabeyond]

57. yes and the thousands registered that arent in polls

yes

[Clinton Crusader]

58. MSNBC report says at least 80,000 new registrations

JUST in Columbus (which is 100% in picking Prez) and almost to a person they are registering to vote against *. These people are NOT counted in polls. relax a bit. I was freaked as well over OH, but this made me feel miles better.

If 80,000 people are new registrants jsut in COLUMBUS, can you imagine how many there are NATIONWIDE???:wow:

:kick:

[roseBudd]

71. Hamilton County in SW Ohio has 38,000 newly registered voters

[DarthDem]

59. Rasmussen Daily Tracker

. . . has Kerry up 49-46 as of today. Seven-day rolling average. That's pretty encouraging.

[seabeyond]

60. geez........how about who is to know

lordy

[Waverley_Hills_Hiker]

61. Is that for Ohio or nationwide?

Are there trackers for the battleground states, too?

[DarthDem]

62. That's Just Ohio

Yeah, Rasmussen is doing daily trackers, presumably from now through election day, for FL, MI, NC, OH, and PA. I'm not sure why he threw NC in with the obvious lodestar battlegground states, but anyway . . . they're on seven-day rolling averages which means that some of the current numbers were during the Goopers' Hatefest2004. Kerry is up 49-46 in Ohio, 48-46 in PA, 48-42 in MI, tied at 47 in FL, and supposedly down by 15, 55-40, in NC. I figure Kerry has about half of a shot at winning NC, but 15 points down is ridiculous. The other polls seem quite reasonable to me.

[Waverley_Hills_Hiker]

65. Good to hear! Glad to see he's back up in Ohio! (N/T)

x

[VolcanoJen]

66. CNN/USAToday/Gallup had Kerry up by 10 points (reg voters) August 15.

These polls are whack. Just a few weeks ago, here were the Ohio results; I find it incredibly difficult to trust these polls from week to week, especially when they vary so wildly.

I couldn't find a link, but when this older poll was released, I made a DU post with the following info:

CNN/USAToday/Gallup, among registered voters, MOE +/-4%, Aug 13-15

Kerry: 52%
Bush: 42%
Undecided: 6%

Among likely voters, it's much closer:

CNN/USAToday/Gallup, among likely voters, MOE +/-5%, Aug 13-15

Kerry: 48%
Bush: 46%
Undecided 6%

[roseBudd]

76. Just left the ACT headquarters in SW Ohio

We are not giving up

[sonicx]

77. damn, i should have responded earlier, READ THIS

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/000650.php

Gallup's new poll in Ohio appears to have the same problem as their latest national poll--there is again a huge discrepancy between their results for registered voters (Bush 48, Kerry 47) and their results for likely voters (Bush 52, Kerry 44). Based on the numbers of registered and likely voters in the Gallup sample, this means that they are projecting that 90 percent of Bush supporters will vote but only 78 percent of Kerry supporters will vote. Again, this seems way out of line with evidence from previous elections and with other polls. In contrast, in Pennsylvania and Washington, Gallup's results for registered and likely voters are much more similar, and in line with other recent polls.

[depakid]

80. Question begging-

who says we're down in Ohio?

[jackieforthedems]

82. Isn't Diebold Located There?

That should answer that question.

[kodi]

84. why? are you serious? its because bush has outspent kerry there, badly

this election is pretty simple.

$$$

for tv & radio, for phone banks, for get out the vote.

it all comes down to money.

i do like kerry's attitude right now. he looks pissed off.

[Springg]

87. Don't believe the polls for Ohio

During the 2000 election, the polls had Bush winning by large margin so Gore stopped campaigning in Ohio. Gore only lost Ohio by something like 3.5% points. Kerry will not make the same mistake. I have been working for Kerry campaign in Columbus and I have been surprised by the number of Kerry signs and bumper stickers. I worked in the Kerry booth at the Ohio State Fair and could not believe how many people stopped by signing up to volunteer, looking for bumper stickers (which we did not have...I have to say the Kerry campaign is running on a shoe string). There are huge numbers of young people registering to vote...and those votes are flying below the radar. I just refuse to believe that the evil one is leading!!!

[theHandpuppet]

88. A friendly DU kick...

... because there are many important insights posted here.

[louis c]

89. According to an up-to-date

Rasmussen poll, Kerry 48% Bush 46%. (premium site on 9/9)

[louis c]

94. Today it's Kerry by three points 49%-46% in Ohio